Starting Rotation 7.6

Starting Rotation 7.6

Let me be the first one to wish the Win Daily crew Happy Jacob deGrom Day! We all know that Rotation takes on a bit of a different format on those days and it’s going to be mainly concentrated on finding a great SP2 to go with him. We’re going to have some strong options at the top but the question is what we can find at the lower tier of salary in Starting Rotation 7.6! 

Starting Rotation 7.6 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

DK still has not pitched him over $12,000. It doesn’t get much more plug-and-play than this. deGrom wasn’t even at his best early last game and still whiffed 14 hitters. He threw 93 pitches so there’s little fear about nagging injury and pitch count issues. deGrom also continued to use the slider as his primary pitch but when it’s getting a 62% whiff rate, you can’t argue. Milwaukee strikes out over 25% of the time and they face one of the best pitchers in the middle of a historic season. Don’t overthink this. 

Luis Castillo

To my eyes, I’d think the deGrom/Castillo pair winds up being the chalk duo and I’m not sure I want to make a strong argument against it. I’m not sweating the last start against the Padres and the month of June was so great for Castillo he may be underpriced here. In 31.2 IP through June, Castillo accumulated a 1.71 ERA, .231 wOBA, 25.6% K rate, a 0.98 WHIP, a 2.78 FIP, and a 3.37 xFIP. If Castillo had been doing this all season as we had expected, he’d likely be at least $1,000 more in this spot. He even upped his ground ball rate to 57.7% that month and that will help keep the Royals offense in check, at least in theory. 

The Royals offense really scuffled in June as well with the eighth-highest ground ball rate to righties at 45.1%. On top of all that, they ranked 22nd in OPS, 27th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and wRC+. They did only whiff 20.5% of the time but Castillo still has a whiff rate over 28% on his change and four-seam. The worst pitches for Castillo so far have been the four-seam and sinker, as they both have a wOBA over .355. With the Royals being in the bottom five against fastballs, we can see where the upside comes from with Castillo tonight. 

Merrill Kelly 

I think Kelly makes more sense on FD because his price went from $6,300 to $9,200 and that’s a massive jump. However, Kelly continues to mostly pitch well after a horrid start to the season, and the Rockies Road matchup is always interesting. It is just not an exaggeration to say that Colorado is the worst offense in the league when they go on the road and face righty pitching. They are 30th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ all while striking out 27.6% of the time. I’m a little leery about the true upside of Kelly at this salary but he couldn’t be in a better spot tonight at the same time.
When we look at the profile for Kelly, I will admit that it can be a little tough to hone in on what he does extremely well. Taking the sinker out of the mix, all the other pitches have a whiff rate over 21% but nothing is over 28.7%. The K rate is just 21.4% but the xFIP is only 3.84 compared to the 4.67 ERA. Kelly does have a solid ground ball rate of 45.2% and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Rockies are 49.3% in ground ball rate in this split and they lead the league there as well. We talked about this last time out but Kelly totally turned his season around after the first month of the season. He’s not been over a 4.10 ERA, over a 3.77 xFIP, and the WHIP has decreased every month. We love Rocky Road (and ice cream in general but that’s another story) and Kelly needs to be on the radar tonight.

Ian Anderson

I wonder if the combo of Castillo potentially being popular and Fried getting smoked by the Pirates leaves Anderson under the radar a bit. I’m not exactly pounding the table for him, but we know he can produce 20+ DK point games and the salary is perfectly acceptable. Any pitcher that heavily features a fastball is of interest to me against the Buccos since they are the worst team in the league by a whole lot.

Anderson’s four-seam has scuffled this year with a .309 wOBA given upland just a 23.9% whiff rate. I do have some concerns about strikeout upside considering Anderson just whiffed exactly two hitters last time and the Pirates only strike out 22.5% to righty pitching. Still, Anderson does have both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA and generates a 50.2% ground ball rate. There are plenty of worse ways to go tonight. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This play comes down to how much you value home/road splits and just the fact that this pitcher is pretty severely mispriced. Yes, he takes on an explosive offense and that is not an ideal spot and if he were $9,000 or more I wouldn’t look twice. Seeing him at $7,700 has my attention because he racked up 26 or more DK points in three of his past four starts before his last start. This offense only whiffs about 22% of the time and that’s not a ton but the Special has racked up 81 strikeouts on his change/four-seam combo this season. We also don’t want to take this too much into consideration, but the opposing offense has jumped to over 25% in K rate across the last 14 days. 

The special continues to dominate at home with a 2.01 ERA, .256 wOBA, 26.8% K rate, 0.97 WHIP, and a 3.98 xFIP. His ground ball rate shoots up to 54.7% and the fly ball rate drops to just 31.1% and all of these metrics are not just being weighed from the 53.2 IP sample of 2021. They’re mostly in line with a 185.1 IP sample at this point in his career and folks will see the opposition and run. That’s not exactly unfair and they can take down any pitcher but Pablo Lopez is just not expensive enough. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Honorable Mention

Note – Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodon, and Framber Valdez all could be in the mix I suppose but all three draw tougher matchups. For me, I don’t have a big need to try and pick on their opponents at the salary involved for each player. I’d have them ranked Valdez, Rodon, then Bassitt if you feel that’s a direction you want to go. 

Aaron Nola – If deGrom wasn’t on the slate, I’d be much heavier on Nola in this spot. He’s sporting a K rate of 29.4% overall and the Cubs have been one of the best offenses to target for strikeouts basically all season long. Spending over $21,000 on pitching is not always the most viable option however so it could make the builds difficult. I do think he’ll fly under the radar for the most part if folks look at the game logs but Nola didn’t quite deserve his score last time. The Philly bullpen allowed three runs after he departed that were charged to him. I just don’t have any reason to not go fully in on deGrom tonight. 

Jose Berrios – I’m never going to be a Berrios fan but he deserves at least a mention here. The White Sox lineup is depleted but they will also likely have five lefties in it and that’s been an issue for Berrios. He’s getting tagged by the left side for a .389 wOBA, 1.79 HR/9, and a 1.56 WHIP. His four-seam is really an issue with a .386 wOBA allowed and the White Sox are sixth against that pitch this season. 

Nathan Eovaldi – The K rate is a little low for a player of his salary at 22.1% but past Shohei Ohtani, the Angels offense isn’t the scariest. Just looking at his splits would lead you to think Eovaldi isn’t good against righty hitters at a .324 wOBA. However, his BABIP to that side is .352 and the xFIP to both sides is under 4.00. I considered making him the Special on the evening. 

Shohei Ohtani – I would assume folks will be gun-shy after Ohtani got worked over for -14 DK points in his last start. Boston doesn’t exactly scream bounce-back spot but they do whiff over 24% of the time. They are also top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO against righty pitching. If the splits hold up, the lineup works for Ohtani. The Sox likely throw out seven righty hitters and Ohtani has that side of the plate down to a .265 wOBA with a 39.8% K rate. My fears also include walk issues but Boston does rank 28th in that category. You can always bet on a talent like Ohtani in this spot but he’s not a smash play as he’s been on past slates. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Primary Stack 

This has to be the first time we’ve done this but with deGrom locked in for me, I need a cheap option. It just so happens that Jameson Taillon is pitching tonight in Seattle and he can’t get lefty hitters out. The Mariners should feature 5-6 lefties and this lineup could be the rocket ship to ride as a late-night hammer. Taillon uses the four-seam to lefties over 50% of the time and it has given up a .320 wOBA thus far and seven home runs. The curve is his main secondary pitch and that one gives up a .343 wOBA to go along with a 6.00 FIP and 2.59 HR/9 to lefties. 

Even though the Mariners do strike out a lot, they have some pop as well. Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, J.P. Crawford, and Kyle Seager all have at least a .306 wOBA or a .109 ISO. Fraley has mashed righties so far through 79 PA with a .322 ISO and a .446 wOBA. Seager and Crawford rank the best against the fastball and Trammell is minimum salary. Even Jake Bauers is in play with how much Taillon has struggled. Playing Seattle allows you to lock in deGrom and play whichever SP2 you’d like with salary left to play around with. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Secondary Stacks 

• Blue Jays against Dean Kremer (may have to use the bottom of the lineup)
• Rangers against Jose Urena (lefties higher priority)
• Reds against Kris Bubic 
• Yankees against Justus Sheffield
• Padres against Patrick Corbin 
• Phillies against Jake Arrieta 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!