Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.4
We only have nine games on Sunday for our main slate but we have some very strong options for our pitchers up top. Diving into the value range gets a whole lot trickier even with a recognizable name near the bottom. Let’s talk about him and the rest of the gang in the Starting Rotation 7.4 and lay the foundation for our green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.4 – Main Targets
Freddy Peralta
I’d have to imagine Peralta is the most popular option on this slate. The Pirates continue to not only be the worst team in the league against the fastball, but they rate at a -47 on FanGraphs while the Cards at 29th rate at -25.6. That’s just an enormous gap. They’re not real hot against the slider either and for Peralta, those two pitches have 113 of 122 strikeouts on the year and they both have at least a 31.2% whiff rate. His four-seam is ranked 10th on FanGraphs and the slider is 11th and this pitch combo is a lethal weapon.
Pittsburgh might not be the highest K rate team at just 22.4% on the season but Peralta matches that with a 36.2% K rate of his own. The swinging-strike rate of 14.4% ranks 13th and he has both sides of the plate under a .250 wOBA. The K rate against lefties is “just” 29.3% while it’s over 44% against the right side. The Buccos should have four of each handedness in their lineup and it’s hard not to like him as the top option.
Robbie Ray
It’s Adam in one corner and Brian in another because I’ll be picking on the Rays today. Now when I say “pick on”, let’s understand that Ray has some significant risk. Tampa ranks well against the fastball and that pitch continues to be interesting for Ray. He’s throwing it 57% of the time and it has given up 12 home runs already. It also has 54 strikeouts with a 24% whiff rate. The slider could be the key for Ray in this spot as it carries a 47.5% whiff rate and 50 strikeouts of its own. The strikeout is king and Tampa is only 0.5% away from leading the league in K rate against lefties at 26.4%.
Past that, they are looking to be on the stronger side against lefties as they rank 13th in OBP, 14th in slugging, wOBA, and OPS, 12th in ISO, and 11th in wRC+. Tampa is also projected to have three lefties and that would help Ray and his 2.18 xFIP and it’s not like the 3.38 mark to righties is poor. Do I think Ray gets through this one unscathed? Nope, but he also might strike out 10-12 hitters and that’s worth rolling the dice on.
Lucas Giolito
For all the times I’ve played Giolito this season, I’m pretty much locked into playing him every fifth day to capture that next 30+ DK start. It could well be here and he’s underpriced again and I’m not making much of one strikeout last time out. He went a week between starts and the previous three starts had totaled 25 strikeouts through 18 IP. In the last start, his spin rate was down a bit but the one pitch it wasn’t was the changeup. He only recorded a 21% whiff rate in that start compared to 37.7% on the season. It was a little odd that the change was his primary pitch last start but I don’t think it was anything more than an oddball start.
His K rate overall is 29.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 15.2% which is inside the top 10 in the league. I continue to believe that he’s better than he’s shown through the results for the most part and the Tigers are still striking out at a league-leading rate. It also helps that they should have 5-6 lefties in the lineup because that’s been the sweet spot for Giolito. He’s held them to a .252 wOBA, 3.61 xFIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. I do grant you that Giolito has two of three months with a wOBA over .300 and an ERA over 4.00. He may not be the pitcher we saw in the short 2020 season. He’s still under $9,000 and that’s too cheap for a pitcher we have seen approach 40 DK points twice within his last 10 starts.
Starting Rotation Special
Yesterday’s didn’t go so well but today is a new day and my read as of Saturday night would lead me to believe this particular pitcher isn’t going to get much traction. For one, his past two starts have been under five DK points. He does have just a 21.6% K rate but he also checks in cheaper than one other option we’ll discuss in Honorable Mention who has a lower K rate. The swinging-strike rate for this pitcher is 12% and that is the best mark in his career by a full 2%. His sinker and cutter are both up by about 4% in the whiff rate and he’s introduced a splitter instead of the changeup he featured in 2019. It has the best wOBA of any pitch at .186 and the best whiff rate at 39.8%.
His ground ball rate is over 53% and the offense he’s facing is sitting 10th in ground ball rate themselves. They also sit ninth in K rate at 25% and even though the Special is slightly worse to righty hitters at a .293 wOBA, his K rate jumps up over 24%. I believe that Marcus Stroman has the chance to match or even potentially out-pitch Gerrit Cole today, and the $8,100 salary leaves him kind of in a no-man’s land. That could work to our benefit and leave him under 10% today.
Starting Rotation 7.4 Honorable Mention
Gerrit Cole – We have to talk about him on this slate but I will continue to fade as long as he remains top dollar. The K rate through June was only 25.4% and the xFIP jumped to 4.05 along with a 4.65 ERA. It’s obviously not hard to put the pieces together and realize that these metrics coincided with the MLB cracking down on the sticky stuff. You can make the argument he’ll likely come in at a fraction of the popularity of Peralta but for me, this is a case where I’ll eat the pitching chalk up top and get different somewhere else.
Wade Miley – Did I ever think I’d even look twice at Miley at $8,600 on DK? Not so much, but the Cubs simply offer too much strikeout upside to totally ignore at 26.5%. Miley only sits at 20.5% on the season which is not particularly what I’d want at this salary. He does sport a 53.3% ground ball rate which is fifth in the league and Chicago is third in ground ball rate against lefty pitching. The cutter/changeup/four-seam mix has 65 of 67 strikeouts on the season and the Cubs rank no higher than 14th against those three pitches. I can see a path to success but I’m just not sure I really love that price tag.
Charlie Morton – I have not gotten along with Charlie Morton at all this season so maybe that’s all you need to know that he’ll succeed today. I’m guessing he’s going to be the chalk as the SP2 on DK since he’s under $8,000 and the Marlins strike out over 25% of the time to righty pitching. What’s super interesting is Morton uses his sinker and cutter almost exclusively to righty hitters. They have a wOBA of .399 and .425 each and have combined to give up four of the eight home runs. You would think that would mean he’s worse against righty hitters but the xFIP is 3.29 and the wOBA is .263, both of which are better than lefty hitters. Miami should have six righties and I think Morton and his 27.5% K rate is playable in both formats, especially in cash as potential chalk.
Zach Thompson – I can honestly say I’m not sure what to with Thompson here. He still shrieks regression with a 1.50 ERA compared to a 3. xFIP and his curveball and cutter combo have 20 of 25 strikeouts. They have at least a 30.9% whiff rate and wOBA’s under .235. His xFIP to righties is 3.89 and the K rate comes down to 30.6% but I can’t help but feel the more film teams get, the tougher the road gets for Thompson. This will be the second time the Braves have seen him as well, so I’d be comfortable fading. If he turns out to be chalk ahead of Morton, play him in cash and call it a day.
Starting Rotation 7.4 Primary Stack
We attacked the White Sox with pitching yesterday but that will not be the case today. The tables have turned and Chicago draws rookie Matt Manning who has a 5.72 xFIP, 6.09 FIP, and an ERA over 8.00. His primary three pitches are the fastball/slider/changeup mix and all three pitches have a hard-hit rate over 54% and the first two have wOBA’s over .400 and ISO’s over .345. I’m looking at Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Gavin Sheets, and Brian Goodwin as he’s racked up a .425 ISO and .505 wOBA in 48 PA against righty pitching thus far. I don’t think we need to be super picky in this stack until Manning shows he’s remotely capable at the MLB level. Even hitters like Andrew Vaughn are in play and if Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal play, it’s really all systems go.
Starting Rotation 7.4 Secondary Stacks
- Astros against Triston McKenzie ( we likely have some super cheap options to go with a White Sox stack since Yordan Alvarez is out and Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker are day-to-day).
- Twins against Brad Keller
- Brewers against Tyler Anderson
- Padres against Vince Velasquez
- Royals against Kenta Maeda
- Mets as a mini-stack against Cole if you want to get super crazy
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
