Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.31
It’s Saturday and we have two slates, one with five games in the afternoon and one with nine games in the evening. I’ll be honest, the five-game slate looks beyond terrible for pitching so we’re going to focus on the nine-game slate for the evening. The evening looks better but that is faint praise in the Starting Rotation 7.31 so let’s figure out who we need to utilize tonight!
Starting Rotation 7.31
Yu Darvish
It’s been tough sledding in July for Darvish with a 7.32 ERA through 19.2 IP (and a 5.95 FIP) but this is certainly a get-right spot. Darvish has pitched 71 IP at home and has been far better there and we just saw Joe Musgrove buzzsaw this Colorado lineup a couple of nights ago. He’s sporting a K rate of nearly 29% and a 12.8% swinging-strike rate. Colorado is also 26th against the cutter, which is the primary pitch for Darvish. That’s a good thing because the wOBA allowed on that pitch is .418. With Colorado on the road, it makes all the sense in the world to pay for Darvish. I do understand that paying for aces has been….well, not fun at all lately. We still have to deal with the metrics in front of us and this lines up for a smash spot for Darvish.
Aaron Nola
I know the Pirates don’t strike out a ton but it’s kind of difficult to fathom why Nola’s salary dropped by $600 after scoring 37.1 DK. We do like the fact that the four-seam has been the issue for Nola with a .377 wOBA and nine home runs allowed. The Bucs continue to be the worst team in baseball against the pitch and Pittsburgh is 26th against the curve. That has been the lead strikeout pitch for Nola with 55 on the season and the whiff rate is 36.9%. It’s also interesting to note that the ERA of 4.37 doesn’t match the FIP/xFIP combo of 3.54/3.41. He’s had issues keeping the ball in the park as well with a 1.40 HR/9 but the Bucs are 30th in ISO. Every weakness for Nola is a large weakness for the Pirate offense. His price is nonsensical, even if there are some small issues with the spot itself.
Joe Ross
I suspect that Ross is going to be popular on this slate because the Cubs completely and utterly laid waste to their major league offense yesterday. Gone are Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javy Baez. Even Jake Marisnick got dealt. The projected Cubs lineup has Matt Duffy hitting cleanup, which is not ideal at all. Ross is a weird pitcher by some metrics. All of his pitches with the exception of the slider have a wOBA over .320 on the season. That’s not typically a pitcher we want but Ross has a 24.4% K rate to fall back on. The swinging-strike rate is 11.1%, which is the best mark since his rookie season in 2015. Ross has had some issues with lefties with a .336 wOBA given up but the K rate is almost 27% to that side. The lefties in the lineup are all over 20% in K rate and Ian Happ is the only power threat with a .236 ISO. The sum of the lineup for Chicago is flirting with a 25% K rate, perfect for Ross and his salary tonight.
Tyler Anderson
It’s never a sure thing when a fringe pitcher heads to a new team but Anderson gets a pretty soft landing spot with the Mariners. Texas is 29th in wRC+, ISO, slugging, and OBP while sitting 30th in wOBA and OPS. Those numbers all came with Joey Gallo in the lineup and even though he’s a lefty himself, that’s still a loss for the Rangers. They do get the ball in play to some extent with a K rate of just 23.4% but Anderson isn’t priced like we need a ton of strikeouts. Texas is also fifth in ground ball rate which should help Anderson’s 40.8% fly-ball rate. The xFIP for Anderson is almost identical to each side of the plate at 4.42 and 4.40 and he whiffs the right side of the plate at a 21.5% rate. Lastly, Texas is last against the changeup and that is the most used secondary pitch to righty hitters for Anderson with a 29.1% whiff rate.
Starting Rotation 7.31 Honorable Mention
Brandon Woodruff – This is where I get really nervous about paying for pitching because Woodruff has seen his K rate consistently slip month by month. It’s still 27.6% in the month of July and Woodruff is still difficult to hit. The wOBA to each side of the plate is under .235 and the xFIP is below 3.10. He’s just been tough to get right and the last five starts are a great illustration. In two starts, the score has been under 16 DK and in three it has been over 23. His entire arsenal of pitches has a wOBA under .290 this year and he’s under $10,000. I just prefer Darvish against the Rockies in San Diego.
Bailey Ober – You have to be a bit crazy to go this route but if there’s a lineup that Ober can do some work against, it’s the Cardinals. The young righty for the Twins not only loses the DH in St. Louis but he faces six righties of the eight regular hitters. On the season, Ober has a 28.7% K rate, 3.45 xFIP, and a .278 wOBA against righties.
Starting Rotation 7.31 Primary Stack
So my initial lean is to use Darvish/Ross as my pitching duo which means we need some cheaper hitters. I’m looking towards Seattle against lefty Taylor Hearn, who sports a 4.85 xFIP, 6.36 FIP, and a .369 wOBA to righty hitters thus far in 30 IP. I’m starting expensive with Mitch Haniger but we quickly can work our way down the salary structure for Ty France, Luis Torrens, and Tom Murphy. They all sit over a .205 ISO and a .325 wOBA against lefties. Additionally, Hearn throws the fastball around 57% of the time and Haniger and Murphy destroy that pitch. Haniger is at a .582 wOBA and .519 ISO while Murphy is over .405 for both. They each also have over 40 BBE, so this isn’t a very small sample.
For a complimentary stack, I’m looking towards Cleveland. Their new addition of Myles Straw is projected to lead off and even though the stats against lefties look poor, leading off at minimum is always appealing. Amed Rosario and Franmil Reyes look great against the sinker from Dallas Keuchel as they both sit over a .220 ISO. Just against lefties period, they both sit over a .335 wOBA. Keuchel can be a bit tricky to full-stack because he can generate ground balls but as a 2-3 man stack, it makes perfect sense.
Starting Rotation 7.31 Secondary Stacks
- Twins against Jon Lester (pending lineup)
- Mets against Wade Miley
- White Sox against Triston McKenzie
- Dodgers against Merrill Kelly
- Brewers against Kyle Muller
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