Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.25
Sunday brings us 11 games and it seems like a bit of an odd slate at first glance. We have some ace-level options at the top but the pricing directly behind it seems very out of place. I can safely say I’m not remotely interested in paying $9,000 for Trevor Williams and his ERA over 5.50. We still need to find some options so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 7.25 to lay our foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.25 – Main Targets
Yu Darvish
I totally understand skittishness about paying up for pitching anymore. The aces have felt like a letdown more often than not lately and Darvish hasn’t been at his best in his past three starts. However, one was when he got injured and one was his return from the IL, which for me is never a comfortable spot. I am happy to see he threw 95 pitches and most of his spin rate was back against Atlanta. Seeing the Marlins offense in Miami should be a bounce-back spot. The Fish are seventh in K rate to righties at 25.3% and bottom eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
The splits are a bit odd for Darvish because the right side has a higher wOBA (only .291 but still) but the K rate is higher at 31.4% and the xFIP is 3.57 as opposed to 4.14 for the left side of the plate. Darvish is slated to face just two lefties against the Marlins. If you pay up, Darvish is my favorite choice.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal comes across as a hair expensive but the entire upper tier is in my view and I’m likely to stay away. Skubal continued his string of very strong starts last time out and he managed to put up 21 DK on just four strikeouts. Even if you take away the win, 17 DK is solid. This isn’t the best spot he’ll ever have for strikeouts since KC is only at 21.9% but the rest of the matchup is super appealing. The Royals rank in the bottom seven of all our offensive categories except for slugging, which they rank 18th.
The other key should be the four-seam for Skubal. On the season, that’s the pitch that he struggles with since it has a wOBA over .400. His slider and change both feature wOBA’s under .230 and whiff rates of 36.9% and 50%. The Royals are only 25th against the fastball this season, leaving Skubal with plenty of opportunities in this start.
Paolo Espino
He might be the weirdest pitcher I’ve written up all season long, but alas. Here we are. This is mostly opponent-driven. The Orioles rank 28th in average, 30th in OBP, 27th in slugging, 30th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 30th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+ against righty pitching this season. They also hover right around a 25% K rate, so this is flat out not a good offense against righties. Espino is not anything special with a 3.00 ERA/4.84 xFIP combo, nor does his 16.5% K rate impress. The K rate does kick up to 19.8% against righty hitters and he has a projected eight in the Baltimore lineup today. None of his main three pitches has a wOBA over .292 on the year and I think could honestly do worse today.
I’m keeping the options very tight today because I don’t think this slate is that great. Zack Greinke gets a very nice spot, but do we want to pay five digits for Grienke and a K rate below 18%. John Means is typically one of my favorites but the Nationals are one of the better offenses against lefties in baseball and Means is very pricey for a player that scored 1.1 DK last time. After that, the talent pool drops steeply.
Starting Rotation 7.25 Honorable Mention
Aaron Nola – I’m not sure who needs to hear this, but in the 41.1 IP since the start of June, Nola has an ERA over 6.00. The wOBA has been at least .362 and the HR/9 spiked over 2.00. Now, the xFIP in June was 2.87 which is a far cry from the ERA but Nola has been extremely volatile. In the last 10 starts, he has two over 30 DK and eight under 22 DK. If you get him right it will be awesome but it’s an expensive gamble with his performance right now.
Caleb Smith – This is a player I’d rather not use much, but he was chalky last time and scored over 24 DK. The matchup is different against the Cubs but Smith does possess a 25.7% K rate so far this season. Chicago is over 24% as a team in K rate to lefties, ranking seventh. What really makes me nervous is the fly-ball rate of 49.8% in Wrigley Field.
Starting Rotation 7.25 Primary Stack
Say hello to the Tigers. Daniel Lynch is back in the majors and unfortunately for him, this season hasn’t gone well for him in the majors or at AAA. His ERA down on the farm is pushing 6.00 and through just eight innings, it’s 15.75 in the majors. Until he shows us…well, anything, he needs to be targeted. This stack has a clear top three in my eyes against the big lefty and it’s Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, and Robbie Grossman. Those three hitters are the top three against the fastball and Lynch’s four-seam has gotten scorched for a .558 wOBA. Those three hitters are all over a .375 wOBA (Haase and Schoop are over .400) and all three are at a .235 ISO or higher. You can also consider Jake Rogers for the Win Daily Double Catcher Gambit and Jeimer Candelario and Zack Short. Everyone has a wOBA over .340 and Lynch looks not up to snuff in the majors.
Starting Rotation 7.25 Secondary Stacks
- Astros against Dane Dunning
- Blue Jays against Rich Hill
- Rays against Triston McKenzie
- Cardinals against Sonny Gray (this might seem odd but Gray has a .351 wOBA against righty hitters and a 1.41 HR/9. I would only use them if playing multiple lineups and limit myself to a mini-stack of 2-3 hitters)
- Twins against Jaime Barria
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
