Starting Rotation 7.22

Starting Rotation 7.22

I’m not going to lie to you, we are in a bit of a slog as far as pitching options go. It feels like forever since we’ve had a dynamite slate, let alone one that was even really good. We do have a couple of bigger name options at the top that are interesting but let’s talk about that and more in the Starting Rotation 7.22!

Starting Rotation 7.22 – Main Targets 

Walker Buehler 

This is a tough spot to get a read on for Buehler. He’s faced the Giants three times already and has scores of 30, 13, and 23 DK points which sounds about right. There are some good and bad that can come across. The good is the K rate for Buehler has come up to 26% while the Giants are over 25% as a team. He also has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate even with throwing a four-seam almost 48% of the time. Only his curveball has a whiff rate over 29.1% on the season which is moderately impressive since the K rate is so high. 

The flip side here is the ERA is 2.37 and the xFIP is 3.72, which is a significant difference. The Giants are also third against the fastball, fourth in OPS, and first in ISO against righty pitching. I would prefer Buehler in GPP only, but let’s see what the projected ownership is. I can’t pretend there’s not a ceiling here but there’s plenty of chances at a floor as well. 

Sean Manaea

At least as of Wednesday night, I prefer Manaea to Buehler. He gets to travel to Seattle and take on a Mariners team that is coming out of Coors Field and that (generally) means the offense struggles in that first game. Seattle already whiffs against lefties at a 26.9% rate, the third-highest in baseball against lefty pitching. Add in that they also rank 24th or lower in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, and it’s not too hard to see why we like Manaea. 

He’s kind of an interesting pitcher by pitch type because the sinker is his main weapon with 70 of 115 strikeouts so far. However, it does have the highest wOBA of .320 and he’s given up 11 of 13 home runs on the pitch. However, Manaea should be helped by the fact that Seattle is 27th against the fastball. On top of that, Seattle normally has four lefties in the lineup. Manaea has a 33.6% K rate to that side of the plate and a 2.72 xFIP. I think he could be our best shot for the highest score on the slate for pitchers. 

Charlie Morton 

Another price point that I’m not overly in love with, Morton takes on a Phillies team that should be righty-heavy. It should be a 5-3 split if they run their normal lineup and Morton has a .259 wOBA to the right side as opposed to a .303 wOBA to the left side. Philly is hovering around a 24% K rate and they haven’t handled the curve well. The curve is the lead strike-out pitch with 66 and only has a .192 wOBA with a 43.2% whiff rate. His fly-ball rate is under 29% to each side of the plate and Morton has a ground ball rate of 47.7%. It’s interesting to note that Philly is sixth in GB rate themselves at 45.7% and Morton certainly has some upside in this spot. 

Adbert Alzolay 

If there was ever a spot for Alzolay to pay off, this sure seems like it could be it. His main pitch is the slider and it’s far and away his best pitch. He’s throwing it 43.2% of the time and it has a .229 wOBA, 55 strikeouts, and a 36.1% whiff rate. Every other pitch sits below a 28% whiff rate and has a wOBA over .325 so there is obviously a risk. What we really like is the Cardinals lineup. They are 15th against the slider and easily in the negative rating but they should have six righties and the pitcher spot. Alzolay has some drastic splits and the right side of the plate sits at a .230 wOBA, 29.4% K rate, and a 2.94 xFIP. The left side is at a .393 wOBA, 19.9% K rate, and a 4.87 xFIP. Provided the lineup is usual for the Cardinals, count me in as interested. 

Starting Rotation 7.22 Honorable Mention 

Kenta Maeda – He makes me very nervous at this salary because he’s been uneven this year even when he’s been the past three starts. His splitter and slider are the key weapons and he does carry a K rate of 25% and the Angels have a K rate of 24%. I’d just find the money for Manaea in this slot. 

Blake Snell – If he’s chalk, I’ll be out on that but I can’t ignore the fact that this spot should be a good one for Snell. Miami now leads the league in K rate against lefty pitching at 28.2% and is in the bottom four in every offensive category we talk about. Snell’s 5.21 ERA isn’t in line with a 4.06 xFIP but I’ll let the field decide this one. 

Starting Rotation 7.22 Primary Stack 

After the last start, Andrew Heaney shouldn’t be chalk but I’m going full on the other direction. The fly-ball rate is 42.3% and his fastball is getting smashed with a .258 ISO, .377 wOBA, and a 301.6 average distance. Heaney is also throwing it 53.8% of the time to righties and the trio of Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz have ISO’s over .430 and wOBA’s over .455. Cruz may not be in the lineup as he’s being rumored to be dealt to the Blue Jays so we’ll keep an eye out. Even if he’s out, Miguel Sano is over a .390 ISO and you have hitters like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco can jump into the fray here. 

Starting Rotation 7.22 Secondary Stacks 

• Rays against Cal Quantrill 
• Red Sox against Jordan Montgomery 
• Yankees against Tanner Houck 
• Cubs against Kwang Hyun Kim 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!