Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.21
The good news for today is we get two slates of MLB action and that’s always a fun time. Unfortunately, out of the 28 total pitchers today, I’m not sure if we have 8-10 great options combined, let alone on one slate. Even some of the “good” options are significantly overpriced and that lowers the appeal in Starting Rotation 7.21 but let’s get to work!
Starting Rotation 7.21 – Early Slate
Eric Lauer – Did I think in a million years that I’d be writing up Lauer at $8,700 in July in the year 2021? Absolutely not but this is the state of the early slate. The top three pitchers in salary are Marcus Stroman in Cincinnati, Madison Bumgarner against the Pirates, and Kyle Muller against the Padres. They are all at least $9,500 and in my eyes are virtually unplayable at those salaries. I mean, I’m not sure I’d play Stroman or Muller if they were $2,000 cheaper. Even Lauer against the Royals isn’t super ideal since they strike out just 21.5% of the time but we have to play someone.
What’s tough about the early slate is you’re going to have to take some risks. I can’t say that Lauer has been all that great in his 56.1 IP since he has a 4.84 FIP and 4.40 xFIP. The WHIP is 1.33 but he is generating a 10.0% swinging-strike rate at least. KC does lose the DH spot since this game is in Milwaukee and Lauer does have a wOBA under .220 on his slider and changeup. The only issue there is he uses them a combined 23.7% of the time. His fastball does have 31 of his 54 strikeouts and KC is 27th against the pitch. They also rank in the bottom 10 in every offensive category we value, so you kind of just pinch your nose and hope he gets through six innings.
Austin Gomber – He’s the one pitcher that might be qualified as too cheap today. He threw 62 pitches in his last rehab start so we should expect at least 80 if things are going well. Much like German Marquez last night, Gomber has conquered Coors Field in his limited opportunity this year. Through 30.1 IP, he has a .225 wOBA, 1.48 ERA, 21.7% K rate, 3.04 FIP, and a 4.02 xFIP. It’s also encouraging he’s managed a 48.1% ground ball rate at home while Seattle is at 45% against lefty pitching. They also strike out the fourth-most at 26.9% and Gomber has a whiff rate of at least 32% on every pitch but his four-seam fastball. Unless we get hit with a strict pitch count, I’m ready to roll out Gomber today.
Keegan Akin – Let’s get WAY nuts. We talk about it almost every time the Rays face a lefty that it’s a significant weakness for them. They are over a 27% K rate, 29th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 28th in wRC+, and 24th in wRC+. Akin has had some poor luck so far with a BABIP of at least .360 against each side of the plate. He’s also stuck out lefties at a 30.3% rate so he might be helped if the Rays roll out a couple of lefties. The 8.19 ERA is not at all in line with a 4.83 xFIP and 4.93 FIP. Sure, those numbers aren’t terrific but we’re paying a very cheap price on a terrible pitching slate. If Akin can get five innings, one or two runs, and four strikeouts or more, he can pay off.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Honorable Mention
Max Kranick – We only have eight innings at the major league level so it’s hard to take much from those numbers. Kranick has a K rate of almost 26% and teams haven’t figured out the four-seam yet. Despite just an 11.1% whiff rate, it’s only given up a .295 wOBA. Now that can change in an instant and it’s a concern that the early returns have Kranick worse to the left side of the plate with a 5.39 xFIP. Arizona is 24th against the fastball so that could help Kranick as well. On a normal slate, we wouldn’t be looking. On this slate, he at least gets a mention.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Primary Stack
It’s very hard to ignore how bad Chris Flexen has been on the road, even if it’s not my favorite metric. The ERA is 5.92 and the xFIP is 5.22 with a .382 wOBA. I highly doubt that can improve in Coors Field, so we’re looking to the Rockies. Flexen is using the four-seam at least 33% to each side of the plate and we can turn to Trevor Story, C.J. Cron, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, and Charlie Blackmon today. They are all over a .325 wOBA and .166 ISO against the fastball and everyone is at least sitting at a .330 wOBA at home.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Secondary Stacks
- Braves against Chris Paddack
- Padres against Kyle Muller
- Brewers against Brad Keller
- Mets against Jeff Hoffman
Starting Rotation 7.21 Main Slate
Lance McCullers – It might stink that he’s so expensive but the options are not enjoyable tonight either. The Cleveland offense typically features 4-5 lefties and that means the curve could get a big workout. McCullers uses it to lefties almost exclusively and it has a .269 wOBA and 34.6% whiff rate. Not to be outdone, his slider is the weapon against righties and that has the best results of any pitch with a .210 wOBA and a 36.4% whiff rate.
McCullers also features a massive 54.2% ground ball rate and it’s also notable that Cleveland is 29th in walk rate. That really helps McCullers since his walk rate is 11.9% which would be second if he qualified. Both sides of the plate are under a .295 wOBA and he’s among the safest options, even if you are paying a hefty price.
Robbie Ray – I would think that Ray would start tonight since the Jays dodged a bullet last night. It was more or less going to be a bullpen game and now Ray gets to stick on normal rest. Boston is a dangerous offense but Ray already has a start of 27 DK against them and has come out of the gates on fire after the All-Star Break with 40 and 31 DK in consecutive starts. Boston is 12th against the fastball and that makes up just about 60% of his arsenal. The K-BB% is a career-high 25.7% and his swinging-strike rate is easily a career-best 15.3%. Boston is above average in every category we talk about but Ray has been so impressive this year and good pitching can beat good hitting.
Jordan Hollaway – When a young guy puts together a couple of good starts, it tends to get my attention. So what exactly changed for Holloway? The one aspect that seems to really stand out is he is pounding the strike zone. Both starts saw him throw a first-pitch strike over 73% of the time and he generated a swinging-strike rate of at least 11.1%. His FIP from both starts was 0.40 and 1.97 to go along with a 2.45 and 3.07 xFIP. Holloway has a 12-2 K-BB ratio in these two games and even though it’s a total of 9.1 IP, he’s about the only other pitcher I’d be willing to gamble on. I think it’s either double ace or pick one and go with Holloway.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Main Slate Honorable Mention
Adam Wainwright – Waino is a pitcher that seems very much overpriced but the Cubs strike out so much that Wainwright conceivably could go for a big game. In his lone start, he got the Cubs for seven strikeouts throughout eight innings while giving up one hit. The Cubs are also seventh against the curve which is a bit concerning and I just generally think it’s too expensive.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Primary Stack
The field is likely going to be interested in the Philly/New York game and it should be. However, one reason I’m willing to take a shot on Holloway is to fit the Jays against Garrett Richards. He’s using the fastball roughly about 48% to righty hitters and the top six in the Jays lineup crush the fastball. Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk all have an ISO of at least .203 and a wOBA of at least .302. Everyone except Grichuk is over .365 in wOBA so there is so much to love for the Jays tonight, especially since it’s not a doubleheader.
Starting Rotation 7.21 Secondary Stacks
- Phillies/Yanks game stack
- Astros against Eli Morgan
- Tigers against Jordan Lyles
- Dodgers against Logan Webb
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