Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.20
If you thought last night’s pitching was kind of rough, I may have some bad news. Tonight is not a whole lot better even though we have two more games to bring the total to 13. We have a minefield to navigate tonight in the Starting Rotation 7.20 to figure out who we need to target this evening!
Starting Rotation 7.20 – Main Targets
Note – We’ve talked about Yu Darvish, Luis Garcia, and Trevor Rogers in yesterday’s article. My feelings on all three really haven’t changed past the fact they all saw the salary rise. I’m slightly less interested in all three but the complexion of the slate might push them more into play than I would like.
Aaron Nola
I’m not exactly a giant fan of Nola and likely don’t play him but he’s one of the most talented pitchers on the slate and needs to be discussed. His pitch types are interesting because every single pitch has given up at least a .282 wOBA. The curve is the best of the bunch with that wOBA, a .210 average, and 47 strikeouts. It also has the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 34.7% and New York is just average against that pitch this season.
It does help Nola that he’s better against righties with a .293 wOBA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 28.1% K rate. The xFIP is a touch higher but only 3.53. My concerns here are we’d be paying for a pitcher that has a 1.21 WHIP and a HR/9 of 1.33 in Yankee Stadium. The New York lineup is banged up but aside from the K rate for Nola, I can’t point to any dominant trait that totally sells me here. His xFIP of 3.36 is a lot better than the 4.53 ERA but I’m not sure this is the spot where it normalizes.
German Marquez
This man is on an absolute roll right now and has cleared 23 DK in eight of the last 10 starts and 19 in nine of 10. That’s the style of consistency we crave and his 3.36 ERA matches the 3.27/3.48 FIP/xFIP combo. The K rate is back up to 25% after sitting around 21% in 2020 and the improvement on the four-seam has helped. Last year it had a wOBA over .400 and this year it’s at .306. The other aspect that has Brough great results is the slider. He’s bumped it up from 16% to 27% and it has 46 of 114 strikeouts. The whiff rate is over 44% on that pitch and the curve and the trio is working together in a much better fashion this season.
Marquez has pitched 70.2 innings in Coors compared to 41.2 on the road and his Coors numbers are better at home almost across the board. His ERA, xFIP, FIP, HR/9, and wOBA are all better in Coors and the only issue is the K rate comes down (but just to 24.2%). Lefties at Coors against Marquez used to be money but they only have a .263 wOBA this season. With Seattle sitting at a 26% K rate on the year and 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, and wOBA, Marquez looks almost as safe as you can in Denver.
Tarik Skubal
I’m willing to take another shot with Skubal in part because he’s not seeing his pitch count monitored like teammate Casey Mize. Skubal has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last 10 starts and even though the last two starts before the break were average, he was facing tough matchups. Texas does not represent the same difficult spot on paper because they are 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. T
The K rate isn’t super high at 23.5% but when Skubal has struggled, it’s been keeping the ball in the park. His K rate throughout 120.2 career innings is 27.2% so that aspect is not an issue. Since March/April, Skubal has had an xFIP under 4.00 which is very encouraging. He’s shown upside with starts of 28 DK against Houston and 31 DK against the White Sox. Given the slate, I’m fairly happy to give Skubal a start and spend on bats.
Starting Rotation 7.20 Honorable Mention
Shane McClanahan – The price is really high for my liking and his four-seam is getting smacked at the major league level. It’s given up six of nine home runs while yielding a .329 average and .427 wOBA. The average MPH is impressive at 97.2 and the whiff rate for the slider and curve are over 44% but there are flaws to be worked out and he’s not cheap.
Dane Dunning – This one is exceptionally dangerous since Dunning is slightly worse to lefties with a .332 wOBA and a 4.12 xFIP. The good news is the K rate is identical and the HR/9 is just 0.25 and Detroit is flirting with a 27% K rate. Dunning is just under 25% and it’s tough to find pitchers with that style of K rate at this salary. His FIP is 3.35 and the xFIP is 3.57 which are both encouraging as well. If you wanted to just punt pitching and go all-in on offense, the Dunning/Skubal combo offers significant risk and reward.
Starting Rotation 7.20 Primary Stack
Boston went bonkers last night and they look primed to do it again tonight. Toronto had to put Alek Manoah on the IL, forcing Thomas Hatch into spot starting duty. On top of that, the bullpen pitched almost the entire game last night after Ross Stripling got shelled. Hatch only has 26.1 IP in the majors but even in the minors, his K rate is just 24% this season while hovering around 21% in other action.
Hatch sat on the fastball almost 48% of the time in his action last year and if that continues, he should struggle. Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Hunter Renfroe have ISO’s over .205. All of those hitters are over a .310 wOBA on the year except for Renfroe. By the way, J.D. Martinez is sitting at a .188 ISO against the fastball and it looks like freshly called up Jarren Durran should make the lineup again tonight. The best part about this stack is not one player is over $5,400 on DK. It’s not that difficult to get what pitching you’d like.
Starting Rotation 7.20 Secondary Stacks
- Reds against Robert Stock
- Rockies against Marco Gonzales
- Blue Jays against Garrett Richards
- Padres against Kyle Muller
- White Sox against Bailey Ober
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
