Starting Rotation 7.16

Starting Rotation 7.16

We are back in action after the All-Star Break and we have 14 scheduled games tonight. There were some Covid issues with the Boston and New York game last night that could have some potential to wreak havoc on this slate. We’ll keep tabs on it through the day but for now, let’s get started in the Starting Rotation 7.16! 

Starting Rotation 7.16 – Main Targets 

Kevin Gausman 

Cardinals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 28th SF – 20th SL – 15th CH – 8th

I feel like it’s been forever since Gausman has been on the main slate and he is the most expensive option but he has been phenomenal this season. He sits behind only Jacob deGrom in ERA and WHIP. The K rate is 30.5% and even though St. Louis struck out 21.8% of the time to righty pitching on the first half, I’m not super concerned. His splitter has been evil and it’s the third-highest rated pitch in FanGraphs rating overall. He’s only allowed a .142 wOBA to go with a 50.1% whiff rate and 95 total strikeouts. The Cardinals lineup works perfectly for Gausman since he should face seven righties including the pitcher. In the first half, Gausman allowed a .181 wOBA, .305 OPS, 0.68 WHIP, and his 30.2% K rate. He’s the player that I’ll anchor to if I spend up at pitching tonight. 

Robbie Ray 

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 16th SL – 17th CB – 22nd

The last time we saw Ray on the mound he was racking up 40 DK points against the Rays with 11 strikeouts. He doesn’t get the same style matchup since Tampa is over 27% and Texas is at 23.6%. The Rangers don’t look great against the pitch mix for Ray as well. The other positive for Ray is is the Rangers are struggling against lefties. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Ray is rocking a 32% K rate and his walk rate is still hovering around 6% which is a massive improvement from his career numbers. He also has a 15.7% swinging-strike rate which is the best mark since 2017. The wOBA is going to be high because his four-seam gives up home runs but Texas is so low in ISO and OPS that I’m not particularly worried here. If you’re going the double-ace route, these two are my preference. 

Kenta Maeda 

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 26th SF – 25th FB – 19th 

It looks like we might be seeing the real Kenta Maeda on his way back. His past two starts have totaled 11 IP, 17 strikeouts, three walks, and zero earned runs. It’s only been 39 batters faced but the wOBA is down at .144 and the xFIP was at 2.18. We can’t expect the K rate to stand at 43.6% but the signs are so encouraging. He generated a 46% whiff rate in the last start and 32% in the start before that. Detroit was second in K rate to righty pitching at 26.6% and is no higher than 18th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. I’m not as worried about Maeda starting against the Tigers twice in a row with the break in between. We need to ignore the seasonal numbers and attach to how he’s been pitching lately. 

Charlie Morton 

Rays Ranks vs Pitch Types – CB – 9th FB – 10th CT – 7th 

I wonder how popular Morton is going to be, but either way I would much rather play him in GPPs. There’s a risk here in spades since there should be four lefties in the lineup and that is the weaker side for Morton at a .288 wOBA. However, the upside is there as well. Firstly, the Rays have to give up the DH in Atlanta. Morton also whiffs the left side of the plate at a 31% rate and Tampa strikes out at 26.6%, tied for second. It’s not a surprise that the curve is Morton’s most-used pitch because it’s his best. The curve has a .193 wOBA, .177 slugging, 59 strikeouts, and a 43.3% whiff rate. Morton is a pitcher that has the widest range of outcomes but the ceiling is there for him. 

Chris Bassitt

Cleveland Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB -21st CT – 30th SL – 7th CH – 26th

Bassitt is at home which does always make me more interested since pitching in Oakland is an advantage most nights. They rank 26th in park factors so it’s not a surprise that Bassitt has a 2.55 ERA and a .245 wOBA at home to go along with a 23.4% K rate. Now, this is a good example of those splits being a little noisy because the xFIP at home is 3.90 and the road mark is 4.02, not all that different. His WHIP and K rate is better against lefties at 0.96 and 25% and Cleveland should have 4-5 in the lineup tonight. Cleveland whiffs at a 23.3% rate and Bassitt seems a little underpriced. Living in the mid-range with Bassitt, Maeda, or Morton isn’t the worst idea tonight. 

Note – As of this writing, we still have multiple teams without listed starters. The lower tier of options looks rough, but stay tuned in the Discord for updates.

Starting Rotation 7.16 Honorable Mention

Brandon Woodruff – He’s been more of a floor option since the start of June with five starts under 25 DK points in seven starts. The ERA was above 3.25 through the entire month and the FIP was 4.26. In fairness, the K rate was 29.5% but the xFIP was over 3.00 and the wOBA was over .280. There’s nothing terribly wrong with Woodruff but I’d like to find the $800 to pay for Gausman. 

Lance McCullers – I prefer Ray but McCullers does have a K rate over 26% himself and the White Sox whiff 23% of the time to righty pitching. They also are second in ground ball rate at 47.5% while McCullers would be sixth in ground ball rate at 52.5%. He also has a whiff rate over 33% on both his slider and curveball which helps. I don’t love the White Sox sitting third in walk rate at 10.7% since McCullers has a 12.2% walk rate and that’s one of the reasons I’ll go Ray ahead of him. 

Andrew Heaney – I suspect he will be chalky and you can argue that he should be with a 28.5% K rate on the season, not to mention his 3.85 xFIP is way more appealing than the 5.38 ERA. What I’m not excited about is Seattle typically playing 4-5 lefties even against lefty pitching. Heaney has a 19.5% K rate and a 4.91 xFIP to the left side of the plate. With Heaney having some issues keeping the ball in the park, things could get ugly and Chalk Heaney rarely works out. 

Starting Rotation 7.16 Primary Stack 

Danny Duffy has not looked all the way right since returning from injury and in his 15.1 IP, he’s giving up over a .350 wOBA, his K rate has dropped, and his velocity is down across the board. The seasonal numbers suggested regression as it is so all the factors are working against him. Righties have a 4.44 xFIP and his K rate drops to just 24.1%. He’s leaning heavily on the fastball to righties and it’s giving up a .302 wOBA. 

Baltimore hitters are extremely cheap as Trey Mancini is the most expensive at $4,500. He, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Pedro Severino are all over a .305 wOBA and everyone is over a .175 ISO except for Severino. Mullins, Hays, Mancini, and Ryan Mountcastle (over a .340 wOBA and .190 ISO) are all in play and you can roll any pitching combo you like with money left over for some more expensive hitters. 

Starting Rotation 7.16 Secondary Stacks 

• Blue Jays against Jordan Lyles (very expensive)
• Royals against Keegan Akin 
• Twins against Matt Manning
• Nationals against Chris Paddack (top of the lineup)
• Coors Field 
• Mariners against Heaney as a GPP mini-stack for leverage

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!