Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.11
We have the last slate before the All-Star Break so pitter-patter, let’s get at’er. If you’re not sure about that reference, you should check out the show Letterkenny over the break but for today, we have 11 games to figure out. We only have one “ace” per se but there’s a bunch of options on the first look in the Starting Rotation 7.11 including two very cheap pitchers that have my eye.
Starting Rotation 7.11
Brandon Woodruff – I probably exaggerated when I said there was only one ace on the mound today. Woodruff has been one of them this season but we do have Aaron Nola as well, just in a poor spot. Anyway, Woodruff sports a 30.7% K rate and a 2.91 xFIP to go along with a 2.10 ERA. His WHIP is 0.78 and that trails only Jacob deGrom in the league. That’s a serious bonus for DK where pitchers get docked for hits and walks. The hard-hit rate is also under 27% to go along with a swinging-strike rate of 12%.
This is a strength-on-strength matchup in one respect because Cincinnati is fourth against the fastball and the four-seam has been the best weapon for Woodruff. It has a .194 wOBA, 29.2% whiff rate, and 71 strikeouts. Woodruff has both sides of the plate under a .235 wOBA, under a 3.00 xFIP, and above a 29.5% K rate. I tend to think the last start was a bump in the road as opposed to anything with the crackdown on the sticky stuff. In the two starts directly before that, he racked up 17 strikeouts in 13 innings with just two earned runs. I do prefer him to Nola on this slate.
Robbie Ray – It’s the second straight time around against Tampa for Ray and you should sort of know the story by now. Tampa is one of the larger boom or bust offenses in baseball as they whiff at a 27% rate against lefties. The bad news is Tampa is 10th against the fastball and Ray has given up 12 home runs on that pitch already. It’s helped him cut his walks drastically to just 6.3% so it’s been worth the trade-off for the most part. It just leaves him vulnerable to the long ball with a .310 wOBA allowed on that pitch. Ray does use the slider at a 27% clip and that does have the slight edge in strikeouts with 56 and the Rays rank 25th against the said pitch. Interestingly, Ray has racked up the highest swinging-strike rate of his career at 15.2% when he’s using the four-seam as much as ever. Pitching has been unpredictable lately but the range of outcomes is wild for Ray. If you’re going here, be prepared for that.
Jose Berrios – So the next three pitchers are almost 100% where I’m going to be spending this slate. Don’t get me wrong, Woodruff and Ray have a ceiling but this group of three pitchers is all wildly mispriced and it’s a gift from DK. Berrios racked up 31.4 DK points in the last start and even though he can be tough o get right, his price went down by $800 and he draws a Tigers lineup that still strikes out the second-most against righties on the season. In the last 14 days, the K rate has spiked up to 27.4% and Berrios is almost at a 26% K rate himself.
Detroit is 27th against the curve and that’s the primary pitch for Berrios with a 36.5% whiff rate, .262 wOBA, and 51 of 103 strikeouts. No other pitch has a whiff rate over 28.9% and his four-seam has been something that teams have picked on. It has a .369 wOBA but Detroit is 21st against it this season. The issues Berrios has shown against lefties do concern me with a .371 wOBA and 4.17 xFIP, but the .344 BABIP does help soothe some issues I have. If this choice isn’t your speed, perhaps you’ll feel better about the next two.
Luis Castillo – The strikeouts may not have been there for Castillo in the last game but Castillo went another seven innings with only one earned run allowed. Since June started, Castillo has now pitched 45 innings and given up a total of 10 earned runs. Now he gets Milwaukee who struggled to put up runs last night (I’m not bitter, why do you ask), and can strike out at a top-five rate against any pitcher, let alone one like Castillo. He’s faced the Brewers twice in this run and scored 17.8 DK and 26.2 DK, either of which would have been acceptable at this salary. The wOBA allowed has not been over .231 since the calendar turned and while I agree that June 1st is a very arbitrary date, it’s easier to believe in it when it’s a pitcher like Castillo. His seasonal stats don’t matter as much in my eyes and the K rate was over 25% since June as well. For once, Castillo deserves to be chalky.
Pablo Lopez – I’m leading this one off by wishing Ronald Acuna a speedy recovery from his torn ACL that occurred yesterday. It really is a bummer to see baseball lose a talent like Acuna for an extended period and hopefully, he’s ready to go for next season. As for today, I would have been interested in Lopez if Acuna was playing despite the fact he got ejected two starts ago for hitting Acuna with a pitch. That’s not a concern and we get Lopez at home coming off whiffing eight Dodgers on 91 pitches. Unfortunately, he only went four innings but I think we get him deeper into the game today.
Lopez continues to dominate at home with a 2.03 ERA, 28% K rate, 3.01 xFIP, and a .256 wOBA. The changeup has a .286 wOBA and Atlanta does rank inside the top 10 against it but this offense isn’t in the best shape right now. It also has 53 strikeouts out of the 102 that Lopez has on the season and with the loss of Acuna, Lopez is absurdly low for salary. I fully intend on making my lineups to be mostly focused on Lopez, Castillo, and Berrios for this slate.
Starting Rotation 7.11 Honorable Mention
Aaron Nola – Any pitcher that has a 29.5% K rate has to be in play to some extent. Pitching in Boston isn’t very easy and I think Woodruff has the softer landing spot but we should pay attention to ownership projections. If you’re rolling multiple lines and Nola is a fraction of the popularity, it’s well with going for it. GPP is inherently risky as it is.
Chris Bassitt – The righty for the A’s has some of the same style of issues that James Kaprielian did yesterday. The road ERA jumps over 4.10 and the wOBA is .311. Where he differs is the xFIP is the same road or home and the K rate is higher on the road at 26.8%. Texas whiffs 24.6% of the time against righty pitching and that’s in the top 12. Bassitt being under $9,000 is very intriguing and I’m not going to complain if you land here.
Wily Peralta – Do I believe in Peralta and his 2.14 ERA/4.13 xFIP combo? Not particularly, but it’s also absurd that his price went down after 22.9 DK and 30 DK in his past two starts. The K rate might be only 17.1% but he’s also under $5,000. Given the values we have with the trio I really like, I don’t think we need to take a huge chance but that could always change if the Twins decide to send out a lesser lineup.
Starting Rotation 7.11 Primary Stack
I would have to assume the field runs to the White Sox who have scored 15 runs in the past two games and draw Spenser Watkins, who has six innings at the major league level. He looks like he pitched well against the Blue Jays but left that start with a 6.34 SIERA and 5.23 xFIP with a 33.3% hard-hit rate. Suffice to say, the White Sox stand out as an elite stacking option so let’s talk about a “secondary” stack o go with them.
Come on and meet the Mets! They face Chase De Jong who has a 5.27 xFIP to lefties and a 17.3% K rate. His overall hard-hit rate is 41% with a 12.4% barrel rate and he uses the fastball about 48% of the time to each side of the plate. That fastball has a 22% ground ball rate, 13.9% whiff rate, and a hard-hit rate allowed of almost 54%. The top seven hitters in the projected order all have an ISO over .205 and a wOBA over .350 against that pitch. My main three targets are Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, and Pete Alonso as they all have a hard-hit rate over 47% and Alonso is the only one with a whiff rate over 18%. From there, you can decide to use Brandon Nimmo as the lead-off hitter or go deeper into the order and work with the White Sox for the rest of the lineup.
Starting Rotation 7.11 Secondary Stacks
- Cardinals against Trevor Williams
- Cleveland against Kris Bubic
- A’s against Kolby Allard
- Blue Jays against Rich Hill
- Pirates against Thomas Szapucki
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
