Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.10
Saturday brings us one step closer to the All-Star Break and we have two separate slates of six games today. It’s interesting because we have a pitcher on each slate that exceeds $10,000 and I believe you can argue to fade both of them and go different routes. Let’s get into both slates and discuss how to approach it in the Starting Rotation 7.10 to lay our foundations for green!
Note – We had to trim down the formatting just a bit due to work obligations. The research is no different than any other slate so let’s crush it!
Starting Rotation 7.10 – Early
Lucas Giolito – Can I start this one off with a long, exhausted sigh? Giolito has been positively maddening this season and he’s coming off yet another rough outing. He hasn’t been above 24 DK points since May and the spin rates have been down as well. This past start looks really poor combined with the results.
Baltimore is a top 10 offense in K rate this season at 24.7% and Giolito still has a 28.9% K rate on the season to go with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate. There’s still a good pitcher in here somewhere but I wonder if he’s worth over $10,000. His fastball has been such an issue with a .344 wOBA and the whiff rate is down 5.5% from last season. The splits are a bit worrisome as well because righties have a .345 wOBA and a 2.42 HR/9 to go with a 5.28 FIP. That’s fairly ugly even though the 3.77 xFIP does point towards some bad luck. I think the best approach will likely be to eat this in cash but I would argue he’s not a must-play in GPP. If the Orioles can get to him and he’s over 50%, that’s a huge win. Giolito hasn’t been the same player as 2020.
Anthony DeSclafani – I am not a fan of the salary at all because Tony Disco has some wild outcomes in his game logs. He’s scored 43 DK points, 13.1 DK points and everywhere in between in the past five starts alone. His top two pitches are the slider and four-seam, both of which have a whiff rate of at least 25%. Washington is inside the top 12 against both pitches but that alone doesn’t disqualify DeSclafani and his 23.3% K rate. The swinging-strike rate of 11.3% is the best of his career so far and he should have five righties along with the pitcher spot against him today. That would help as he has a .215 wOBA against that side of the plate and a 0.51 HR/9. The ERA is higher at home which is odd but the xFIP of 3.42 is lower and that’s likely the truer measure of him pitching in San Francisco. The K rate is stagnant so that’s not a big deal breaker and he is my favorite high-end spend today.
Trevor Rogers – When I saw this matchup, my first thought was this is a big boom or bust spot for Rogers. That’s really not fair to him as he does not have a single start this year that he’s surrendered more than three earned runs and he’s whiffed at least five hitters every time out. In his lone start against the Braves this year, he went five and whiffed seven with two earned given up and his four-seam continues to be the main weapon. He has recorded 118 strikeouts and 74 have come from the four-seam while it carries a .290 wOBA and a 29.2% whiff rate.
This is where things get tough for Rogers because Atlanta ranks ninth against the fastball and sits first in ISO. They are all over the board for the rest of our offensive categories and they still do strike out quite a bit at 24.8% so as a team, they are difficult to gauge. Atlanta can put out eight righties in the lineup but Rogers counters with a .253 wOBA, 2.60 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, and a 30.3% K rate. He’s relatively cheap given the metrics even if it’s not a total smash spot on paper.
Marcus Stroman – Is this where Stro puts his foot down? Pittsburgh can be pesky since they aren’t a big strikeout offense but they simply aren’t a good offense either. With this game only being scheduled for seven innings, I don’t think it’s totally crazy to think Stroman has a shot a complete game. One aspect of his pitch mix that could really be stealthy is the Bucs are projected to be lefty-heavy. Stroman’s overall strikeout rate to lefties is paltry at 18.2% but his splitter has a 38.1% whiff rate. That’s the highest of any pitch and he uses that as his third pitch to lefties behind the sinker and cutter. He also generates a 58% ground ball rate to lefties with a 32.4% hard-hit rate and that could lead to some quick innings. He’s really struggled lately but this is a get-right spot, Taijuan Walker’s struggles duly noted.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Honorable Mention
James Kaprielian – The price is sky-high after a 30 DK point outing and I’m not terribly crazy about it. If he was cheaper he would be a primary target and it still nags me that he has a 4.24 xFIP compared to a 2.84 ERA but the kid is making it all work for him so far. His four-seam is his best friend and worst enemy because it has 37 of 62 strikeouts but also has a .344 wOBA and six of eight home runs allowed. The road metrics weigh slightly heavier since Oakland is so pitcher-friendly and Kaprielian has a 4.06 ERA and .330 wOBA on the road. Combined with a .374 wOBA to lefties (Joey Gallo hits lefty and has a .291 ISO against fastballs) combined with a 19.8% K rate, 5.84 FIP, and 5.29 xFIP, I can’t see myself paying the price for him.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Primary Stack
I know Brian is off today and he expects me to write up Giants against Jon Lester but….they are NOT cheap. We might be able to find some value from the catcher spot and others for San Francisco but a full stack costs you. If I’m spending big, I’m going back to Baltimore and picking some White Sox hitters once again. We all know the drill by now that the Orioles pitchers are not good at all. Thomas Eshelman has a 6.85 xFIP and he gets hammered by both sides of the plate. Righties have a wOBA of .418 and lefties have an xFIP over 8.00.
Every single pitch for him has an ISO over .240 and a wOBA over .300 except the fastball…which is his least-used pitch. We can load up with two out of three from Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and then finish off the stack with hitters like Brian Goodwin, Leury Garcia, Gavin Sheets, or Andrew Vaughn. Even players like Jake Burger and Zack Collins are all in play (I would prefer Curt Casali from the Giants) but the bottom line is to go White Sox. They aren’t even that pricey after the top three hitters. It’s not hard to build a five-man stack if you wish.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Secondary Stacks
- Red Sox against Matt Moore
- Mets against Tyler Anderson
- Rangers lefties against James Kaprielian
Starting Rotation 7.10 – Main
Freddy Peralta – I will absolutely continue to fade Gerrit Cole until he shows me he’s figured out how to pitch without Spider Tack. Since the crackdown, Cole has a 4.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 9.8 K/9 in almost an identical sample size of innings pitched prior to the crackdown. Heading into Houston isn’t where I want to test that.
Instead, that leaves us a choice among the expensive options between Peralta and the next man on our list. Peralta continues to have some control issues with five walks in the last outing and an 11.5% walk rate on the season but the 35.4% K rate is top-five in baseball. It feels extremely difficult to ignore that at this price tag because the ceiling is just so high. Just like Charlie Morton yesterday, Peralta does have some interesting history against the Reds this season and this will be the fourth time in the past 10 starts he’s faced them. He’s accumulated 15.2 IP, 19 K’s, six walks, but only five earned runs. Cincinnati is only 15th in walk rate so in the exact same vein as Morton, Peralta should work much better in this spot.
The Reds are top-five against the fastball but 23rd against the slider on the season. If there’s a bad sign for Peralta, it is the fastball because even though he’s shed the “Fastball Freddy” moniker this season, it still has been the best strikeout pitch for him. Of the 129 he has on the year, 73 have come from the four-seam and it has a 31.5% whiff rate. Cincinnati also will have a balanced lineup likely (four righties and four lefties) and lefties have been a small issue. They have a 4.53 xFIP and “just” a 29.6% K rate compared to a 2.58 xFIP and 42.4% K rate to righties. The salary on DK is just too cheap here in my eyes at barely $9,000.
Walker Buehler – If the seasonal history against an opponent does something for you, Buehler likely is your choice tonight unless you go double ace. He’s faced this D-Backs offense twice and cleared 30 DK points each time with 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and six walks. My hangup is the K rate for Buehler is 10% lower at 25.5% and that is a steep drop-off. Arizona helps this along because they do strike out about 2% more than the Reds do but it’s hard to square that difference up.
Buehler also has a 3.76 xFIP which isn’t exactly terrible or anything but the 2.49 ERA might have room to climb. Buehler has also seen his swinging-strike rate and CSW decrease this season which is a slight concern. It’s worth pointing out that Buehler is worse against lefty hitters but we’re somewhat splitting hairs at that point. The .261 wOBA isn’t anything to fear and his xFIP is higher to righties and the K rate is stagnant to each side. Buehler features his four-seam heavily just like Peralta and has 52 of 107 strikeouts from that pitch. Every single one of his pitches has a wOBA under .285 and with the salaries involved, you can likely make a double-ace approach work. I prefer Peralta but I do admit my bias because Buehler gets smacked seemingly every time I play him.
Starting Rotation Special
This comes with the usual caveat if he turns out to be popular, he doesn’t qualify as a Special. We’ll see what shakes out but I think I may be forced to drop the Special label on such a condensed slate. Do I believe this pitcher is truly worth this salary and is suddenly this pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and 3.85 xFIP? Not exactly, but against this particular offense, I’m willing to try and find out. He’s sporting a 26% K rate and a hard-hit rate under 30% while generating a 52.8% ground ball rate and a 16.8% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers are what we like to chase, everyone. Sure, the SwStr% won’t stick that high but his start looks real by plenty of metrics at our disposal. The opposition typically leaves 4-5 lefties in the lineup even against lefty pitching and the Special is giving up a .276 wOBA, 31.9% K rate, and a 2.22 xFIP to that side. That’s not even my favorite part of this play.
Still just 24-years old, the Special has changed his pitch mix this season. His changeup now leads the mix and the four-seam is second instead of first. His four-seam is up just a tick but nothing crazy and it’s been that change that has altered his fortunes on the mound. He’s thrown 274 thus far and given up eight hits (seven singles and one homer) while allowing a .177 wOBA and a .116 average. The whiff rate is 55.7% (!) and it has a 7.7 rating on FanGraphs. If he qualified, that would be a top-five changeup in baseball in just 49 IP. The opposing offense currently ranks 28th against the change and if those metrics hold, Patrick Sandoval would be an outstanding play.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Honorable Mention
Joe Musgrove – Gross. He’s another pitcher who has really struggled with the crackdown although his last two starts haven’t seen some giant shift in the spin rates. What I’m sort of hoping for is everyone gravitates to the Rocky Road matchup (Blake Snell was tracking inside the top-five in ownership yesterday on a 14-game slate) and we can get Sandoval at half the attention. The K rate is over 29% and the xFIP is only 3.33 but he just hasn’t been able to put it together that much for well over a month now. The last time he topped 19 DK was June 5th.
Chris Flexen – I would go against what I typically use but Flexen has been a very different pitcher depending on where he’s pitching. In 54.1 IP at home, he has a 1.99 ERA, .254 wOBA, 18% K rate, and a 3.98 xFIP. Compare that to the same stats on the road of a 6.97 ERA, .400 wOBA, 14.1% K rate, and a 5.14 xFIP. Should that be a deciding factor, probably not but the Angels offense is currently still missing Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton. On a six-game slate and at $7,000 I suppose he could get a look.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Main Primary Stack
Vladimir Gutierrez toes the rubber tonight for the Reds and that means I’m looking towards the Milwaukee Brewers. The righty for Cincinnati is currently sporting a 14.9% K rate to lefties to go along with a 5.62 FIP and 6.42 xFIP. If you’re not going to strike out the Brew Crew hitters, they can make it hurt. The fastball and changeup make up about 60% of the mix for Gutierrez to lefties and those pitches are getting mauled, each giving up an ISO of at least .275 and a wOBA over .375. The average distance is 333 feet and the hard-hit rate is getting towards 56% for the fastball.
The obvious choices here are Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez, both of whom have a wOBA over .361. Yelich also has a .430 wOBA and .291 ISO against the fastball. How can we get to those pieces while using pricey pitching? The first player is Jace Peterson and his .408 wOBA against fastballs and .216 ISO against righty pitching. Also don’t sleep on Rowdy “Roddy” Tellez, recently of the Blue Jays if he’s playing first. These salary savers allow us to spend on pitching and can even throw in a Willy Adames and his .414 wOBA against righties in a Brewers uniform.
Starting Rotation 7.10 Main Secondary Stacks
- Cubs against Kwang Hyun Kim
- Dodgers against Caleb Smith
- Astros against Gerrit Cole
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
