Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.1
We have seven games scheduled for tonight but there is one game already under threat of rain, so we’ll have to see how that develops. The good news is we have two stud pitchers at the top and it will be interesting to see if we can fit them both or if we have to choose a cheaper option to pair up with one of them. Let’s talk about all our options tonight in the Starting Rotation 7.1 and lay the foundation for green screens once again!
Starting Rotation 7.1 – Main Targets
Jacob deGrom
I get that deGrom was very average last time out but that was nothing more than an outlier in my eyes. His spin rate (not accusing, just addressing) was not anything that raised concerns in that start so there’s no fear there. Sometimes, he’s just not the fantasy monster we know and love. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get right back to dominance tonight in Atlanta. They are eighth in K rate to righties on the season at 25.2% and deGrom just got them for six strikeouts in five innings two starts ago. That was even with a pretty strict pitch count.
Even in his worst start, deGrom generated a 39% whiff rate and a 36% CSW. The most noticeable change was he used the slider 53% of the time to only 42% for the four-seam and threw just five changeups. If there is a quibble, it might be that. It’s not hard to wonder if his four-seam delivery was bothering him since he’s battled some bumps and bruises lately. Still, if that’s the nitpick….that tells you all you need to know. deGrom is still rocking a K rate around 44% and has a swinging-strike rate over 20%. Facing any team leaves him as one of the best plays on the board, let alone when it’s a K-heavy offense on the other side. I’m not concerned here and would expect that pitch count to continue to rise.
Corbin Burnes
We didn’t have any concerns about deGrom and his spin rate but the same cannot be said for Burnes. He was very good in his last start but not at the level we’ve been accustomed to this season. He struck out seven over six innings but he also saw a significant drop in spin rate, cutter included –
Now, that risk has been noted but it’s very difficult to ignore the salary here for Burnes against an offense that is coming out of Coors Field and they scored two runs over three games. Two. Runs. This Bucco offense is not good for the most part and even if Burnes can’t replicate his start to the season, he’s barely $9,000. It might be fair to not expect a 38.9% K rate or a 17% swinging-strike rate but we’re not paying for that tonight. The whiff rate on the cutter did drop to 25% but he still had a 27% CSW overall. I’m taking the discount and running in this spot and it’s not prohibitive to play deGrom and Burnes together.
Ian Anderson
For me, I’m not really going to mess around with a lot of pitchers on this slate. We have deGrom, we have a steeply discounted Burnes…that’s plenty for me and what we can play offensively. However, Anderson does check-in as an option because his salary doesn’t make much sense either. Anderson is coming off 21.9 DK and 23.9 DK in his past two starts and yet, his price went down by $400. The Mets are getting healthier offensively but Anderson is a legit big-league talent, regardless of what Brian will tell you. His FIP and xFIP are both 3.21/3.32 and they are slightly lower than the 3.42 ERA. The Mets are fourth in ground ball rate this year and Anderson is over 51% himself, in addition to a strong 26.1% K rate.
The point about the mechanics is very well said and helps his pitch types immensely. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and the K rate and xFIP see no huge split. That’s helpful since the Mets lineup should be balanced between righty and lefty tonight. His changeup is his best weapon with a 36.8% whiff rate and a .219 wOBA. It splits with the four-seam fastball as far as strikeouts with a total of 76 between the two pitches. The salary does not match the upside here.
Starting Rotation Special
Whooo boy this one is risky. Let’s get that out of the way right now and this play is not for everyone. This pitcher draws a matchup with an offense that whiffs over 26% of the time this season. That’s a good start since the Special only has a 21.2% K rate himself. He has also faced this offense twice with an 18 DK point score and one under three. I like the fact that the wOBA to lefties is just .292 because he’ll likely face five of them plus the pitcher spot tonight. After a disastrous start to the season, he’s reeled off two straight months with an ERA of 4.10 or under, a 3.76 xFIP, and the wOBA dropped to .288 in June. His four-seam/curve combo is the bread and butter for strikeouts with 47 of the 82 total. The 1.18 HR/9 would be the best mark of his career and there is a pathway for Merrill Kelly to pay off his salary tonight. Just understand that he’s facing the Giants and they are one of the best statistical offenses in baseball.
Starting Rotation 7.1 Honorable Mention
Luis Castillo – He’s been on fire and looking like the ace we thought he would be, but the Padres are one of the more difficult matchups in baseball. I will say Burnes only being $200 more in a much better spot will likely leave Castillo at a fraction of the popularity.
Johnny Cueto – Getting Cueto right is nearly impossible at this point. The profile is fine with a 3.79 FIP, 18.9% K rate, and only a 1.07 HR/9. He has been worse on the road and to lefties though so those are the main reasons I will pass myself.
Starting Rotation 7.1 Primary Stack
The first one on my list is the Dodgers, but there is rain projected. If we can’t go LA, I’ll likely look towards the Reds against Ryan Weathers in Cincinnati. Let’s talk about the Dodgers though because Patrick Corbin has been my nemesis all season. Corbin has a 4.65 xFIP and 5.88 FIP against righty hitters to go along with a 2.11 HR/9. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Mookie Betts all have a wOBA over .330 and an ISO over .180, and the first two are far over that. If Albert Pujols makes the lineup, I’d be very interested there as well since he’s smashed lefties with LA, but they are healthier now. We also have some severely underpriced Cardinals in Coors Field as Nolan Arenado is the only hitter over $4,700. Antonio Senzatela is worse against righties with a .360 wOBA, 1.46 HR/9, and a 4.52 xFIP at home. We can fit parts of these offenses with both aces tonight.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
