Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.9
This slate is another massive one but man it is a weird one. Pitching looks pretty poor on the surface but we also could have a couple of glaring values. One of the biggest decisions on the slate lies at the very top so let’s get busy in the Starting Rotation 6.9 to lay the foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.9 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
I’m going to say this right off the hop, and perhaps this stand backfires. I will not have any Gerrit Cole outside of cash (if he’s popular). Look, this is far less about anything Cole brings to the mound statistically throughout the season more than what he might not be bringing. Cole is at the epicenter of the “scandal” in MLB right now that sees pitchers using sticky stuff to gain higher spin rates and more movement on their pitches. The last start saw Cole drop his RPM by an awful lot to the lowest rate since 2018. His whiff rate was down on both the four-seam and curveball which isn’t a good sign.
Another very poor sign? Cole’s “answer” to a reporter asking if he’s using Spider Tack.
This is just an absurd answer, or non-answer maybe is the better term. Cole is a very talented pitcher and is fully capable of dominating. If everything was equal, he’d be the clear number one option on the slate. However, the Twins are the best team against the fastball. If that’s an issue in this start, we’d regret paying over $11,000. I fully believe he’ll be popular in cash and we eat chalk in that format, but I’m willing to gamble and have some Twins tonight.
Taijuan Walker
Nobody whose name isn’t Brian Tulloch wakes up and says, “YES! I can play Taijuan Walker today!” and even I’m not in love with the play. The xFIP of 4.20 isn’t spectacular in comparison to the 2.17 ERA but Walker does have a 23.7% K rate at least. The WHIP is also just 1.06 despite a 10.7% walk rate and the 9.3% swinging-strike rate is on the high side for him. It’s still frustrating to see him using the sinker as every pitch but that one has a wOBA no higher than .236. The four-seam has 31 of 51 strikeouts so far and Baltimore whiffs over 24% to righty pitching. They are also no higher than 25th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, or OBP on the season to righty pitching.
Walker also has strong splits against each side of the plate, as neither is over a .243 wOBA on the season. The lefties are still a bit of a mixed bag because the K rate jumps slightly to 25%, but the xFIP is scary at 4.81. Having said that, the hard-hit rate is still just 28.6% to that side of the plate and Baltimore has not exactly been an offense to take advantage of any weakness against righties. On a weird slate, Walker checks enough boxes to make the cut.
Casey Mize
The pitch data looks fantastic for Mize in this start and for the life of me I can’t figure out why the price isn’t coming up. He’s now strung together five straight starts of at least 17 DK points but has yet to exceed $7,000 on any given slate. Mize has struck out a total of 26 hitters over the past four starts and has only given up a total of six earned runs over 26 IP. The K rate of 20.4% is not exactly accurate at this stage and his WHIP is only 1.07. His 50.6% ground ball rate is 11th in the league and he’ll need every bit of it since the Mariners are surprisingly 27th in ground ball rate on the year to righty pitching.
Mize does come with a significant catch – lefty hitters have been an issue, even while he’s been pitching better. The wOBA is .340, the FIP is 6.04, and the xFIP is 4.54. Seattle will have 5-6 lefties and that’s not ideal, as they are 13th in ISO against righty pitching. The four-seam has been the home run pitch with six bombs given up and a .353 wOBA. The good news is it does possess a 27.8% whiff rate and Seattle is almost last against the pitch. Mize is dangerous, but he is also mis-priced. With the Mariners featuring a 25.8% K rate, the reward is worth the risk.
Tucker Davidson
When a slate looks this tough, I’m willing to take some chances and Davidson is exactly that. We’re only talking about a 13.1 inning sample size in the majors to this point and there is a 5.55 FIP and 5.48 xFIP in that sample. The K rate is also only 20.3% but some of that is a bit skewed by a poor 1.2 IP in 2020. What we love to see is the 13.1% swinging-strike rate thus far and a 50% ground ball rate. Through 20 IP in the minors, Davidson has shown strikeout upside with a 32.4% K rate and a ground ball rate of 52.4%. Philly has been an offense to pick on with lefty pitching this season with a 29.3% K rate, which is the third-worst in the league. They are also 13th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging as well.
Davidson has faced 34 righties and they only have a .256 wOBA and he should see 6-7 righties tonight. The largest fear is the 11.8% K rate and the 5.41 xFIP, so understand exactly what you’re going with if you play him. The Mets and the Nationals were tougher matchups on paper and Davidson has scored at least 13.9 DK in each of those starts.
Austin Gomber
Everyone seems to remember the start where Gomber got absolutely annihilated by the Giants but he’s not getting enough respect for what he’s done outside of that lone start. Gomber has not been below 11.4 DK points past his first start of the year which only went three innings. In the past 10, he has six starts over 17 DK and is only $6,000. To sum it up, he should NOT be this cheap. Gomber has a K rate over 25%, a swinging-strike rate of 11.2%, and a 30.9% CSW on the season. Miami has the sixth-worst K rate to lefty pitching at 28% and even though Starling Marte is back in this offense, they still aren’t scary. They are either 22nd or 23rd in slugging, OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this season.
Some folks might make a big deal about his road ERA being sky-high but that includes his horrific start and a 56.4% strand rate. To righties on the year, his strand rate is under 60% and that’s got to change at some point. His xFIP to that side of the plate is just 3.82 and with a hard-hit rate of just 29.4%, Gomber is a serious value in my eyes tonight. My plan for GPP is to pick two out of Mize, Davidson, and Gomber and play whatever bats I choose.
Starting Rotation 6.9 Stacking Options
- Angels against Brad Keller (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi)
- Rays against Patrick Corbin (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Mike Brosseau)
- Dodgers against Tyler Anderson (Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols)
- Mets against Matt Harvey (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor – they would rank higher but the pricing for the other hitters is absurd. I may just settle for a mini-stack.)
- Tigers against Chris Flexen (Robbie Grossman, Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
