Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.8
After a very oddball Monday with only two games, we’re back with a full slate tonight and plenty of options. It shapes up to be a lot of fun and we have multiple aces to choose from and one of the most on-brand stacks Win Daily has ever seen. I’ll let Brian handle that in Picks and Pivots but let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.8 and talk about our pitchers!
Starting Rotation 6.8 – Main Targets
Shane Bieber
This slate is super interesting overall because even with pitchers like Bieber available, I’m not sure any particular player is a MUST play outside of chalk for cash games. WE can’t let Bieber sit on the sidelines though and Bieber has seen some regression from last season but nothing egregious. His FIP and xFIP are 2.88 and 2.67, which are still outstanding. Bieber isn’t striking out the 41.1% of hitters as he did in 2020 but let’s not pretend 35.6% is a poor K rate at all. The BABIP has been well over .300 seemingly all season and some of that might be traced to the 49.8% zone rate. Only 42.6% of his pitches went into the zone last year and is one of the starker differences in his profile this year.
It’s also easy to draw a line to the whiff rate going down on his curveball especially. Last season it was 51.5% and this year it’s down to 42.9% which is a significant jump. We’ve still seen plenty of ceiling from Bieber this year and the Cards lineup could help him. The wOBA to righty hitting is only .269 and most of St. Louis will be on that side of the plate. Let’s see how the other pitchers stack up before deciding on what to do with Bieber, who is slightly riskier than last year.
Tyler Glasnow
Tampa gave Glasnow an extra day off after pitching 100 pitches with a blister in the last start, so that’s not an overwhelming concern for me. Glasnow is still over a 35% K rate and the WHIP is under 0.95 and while Washington doesn’t strike out a whole lot at 22.3%, Glasnow is not the standard pitcher. Glasnow is still fourth in the league in swinging-strike rate at 16.7% and fifth in CSW at 33.4%. He’s an elite pitcher that can make any hitter swing and miss regardless of seasonal data.
Washington will likely throw out six righties and that can be a small issue for Glasnow. I saw small because righties still only have a .294 wOBA, 11.2% walk rate, and a 1.23 WHIP. However, the xFIP is still only 3.19 and his BABIP to righties is .291. I can’ find much of a reason to not pitch Glasnow with an elite four-seam/curve combo. They have a combined 94 strikeouts and the curve has a 56.8% whiff rate. He only throws it 14.2% of the time but yet it is the 10th ranked curve on FanGraphs and only has a .097 wOBA against it. Both Bieber and Glasnow are cheap enough to go double ace if you wish.
Sonny Gray
This spot could be a fantastic one for Gray. This season has been a bit of a tough one to get right if you’re playing Gray. He’s had some dynamite starts but he’s gotten smacked a couple of times as well. The K rate is 29.4% and that is already a great match for the 26% K rate the Brewers sport against righty pitching. Gray has been bitten by the home run ball so far at a 1.53 HR/9 but at the same time, the 21.1% HR/FB rate is egregious when compared to his career. Gray has only averaged a 12.6% HR/FB rate through his career and his 11.1% swinging-strike rate and 32% CSW are right in line with the past five seasons.
Gray should also get a nice boost from Milwaukee’s typical lineup, which features 5-6 lefties. That has been the better side of the plate for Gray at a .276 wOBA, 31.1% K rate, and a 3.08 xFIP. Milwaukee is going to get slightly better on offense if Christian Yelich can stay healthy, but they do rank dead last in wOBA and OPS on the year. Gray uses the curve as nearly a primary pitch to lefties and it has a 36.8% whiff rate and only a .295 wOBA. There are bigger names on the slate but Gray could match their scores with the metrics on paper.
Alex Wood
Wood got beat up a little bit in his last start but this sure seems like a bounce-back spot. He still has a 3.32 xFIP and a 24.9% K rate on the season to go with a 6.5% barrel rate. Texas oddly does not strike out as much to lefties with a 23.6% rate. However, they also struggle in general against lefties. They rank 26th in wOBA and wRC+, 27th in ISO, 25th in OPS, and 25th in OPS. We should also pay attention to the fact the Rangers aren’t very good against the slider and that has been the money pitch for Wood. It has allowed the lowest wOBA of his pitches at .203 and the highest whiff rate at 34.5%.
Wood has faced 165 righty hitters so far and they’ve only compiled a .267 wOBA, .606 OPS, and a 29.1% K rate. The xFIP is down at 3.05 and even though Wood will pitch in an AL park, that’s not a deal-breaker for me. Texas will likely go with six righties and the biggest issue with three lefties is Wood just does not strike that side out at 9.1%. I believe the lineup doesn’t totally kill the appeal for Wood and would still be very interested in a pitcher who has been so good this season and by the way, he scored 27 DK points already against the Rangers this year.
Pablo Lopez
Lopez got Monday’s scheduled start pushed to tonight and it did all of us (and Lopez) a big favor. Instead of starting in Fenway against the Red Sox, Lopez now draws the Rockies on the road and Lopez is lights out at home. We’ve mentioned before that I’m not a big fan of home/road splits in a particular season but Lopez has logged 168.1 IP at home and 126 IP on the road for his career. ERA is not the best measure of a pitcher, but a home ERA of 2.78 in his career can’t be ignored compared to a 5.86 mark on the road. This year the difference is even larger but it doesn’t account for his road starts coming against really good offenses. Anyway, Lopez is at home and we’re ready to roll with him tonight.
Colorado is dead last on the road to righty pitching in wOBA, ISO, OPS, slugging, and wRC+. Additionally, they’re 29th in OBP and whiff 26.5% of the time. Lopez has only allowed a .225 wOBA at home to go along with a 26.6% K rate and a 0.87 WHIP. We go after Colorado with almost any pitcher possible when they are away from Coors and Lopez will not be any different.
Bruce Zimmermann
This is the boldest call of the night but Zimmermann has four starts over 17 DK this season, including two straight against the White Sox and Twins. Those are offenses that are far better against lefty pitches than what the men are playing right now. Since the start of May, New York ranks 25th in wOBA, OPS, 21st in wRC+, ISO, and 27th in OBP. They’re also striking out just about 25% of the time and it’s not a surprise considering how many injuries they’re dealing with.
Zimmermann only has a 19.7% K rate but he’s also under $6,000 so we’re not looking for a strikeout king at this salary. The xFIP is only 4.31 and he’s also giving up a .333 BABIp, which is high even for him. His swinging-strike rate is 11.6% and the CSW is 28.1%, both of which are more than acceptable for this salary. All of the secondary pitches have a whiff rate over 27% and if he can figure out the four-seam, he could really be in business. The four-seam gets hit for a .547 wOBA which is extreme while no other pitch is over a .316 mark. The Mets are just average against that pitch and we’re only looking for 15-18 DK points.
Honorable Mention
Walker Buehler – There’s nothing wrong with playing him but I far prefer the ceiling that Bieber and Glasnow represent. The K rate is around 10% higher for the other two pitchers.
Chris Bassitt – The theory of a weak start after a complete game played out for Bassitt, but don’t let that mask the fact of how great he has been this season.
Matt Boyd – He’s been awful the past three starts but the Mariners have a way of curing a lot of ailments.
Starting Rotation 6.8 Stacking Options
- Read Picks and Pivots
- Giants against Jordan Lyles (Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade)
- A’s against Jon Duplantier (Mark Canha, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Mitch Moreland)
- Padres against Zach Davies (Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer)
- White Sox against Robbie Ray (Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes, Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, Nick Madrigal)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
