Starting Rotation 6.6

Starting Rotation 6.6

It’s Sunday and we have a 10-game slate today and it falls under the category of a challenging/easy slate. I say that because the challenge comes from not having a ton of options at the first look. The easy part comes from when we don’t have a lot of options, it makes picking pitchers a whole lot easier. Let’s go through the normal process and see if we can identify some gems or if we’ll just play it straight in the Starting Rotation 6.6! 

Starting Rotation 6.6 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

Burnes hasn’t exactly hit the ceiling we saw earlier in the year in the past couple of starts but I very much doubt that will deter the field. Burnes is still sporting a 40.9% K rate to go along with the 51.9% ground ball rate. His 2.24 ERA looks fantastic and it looks even better next to a 1.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. Burnes has been nearly unhittable with a 4.7% barrel rate and a 21.7% hard-hit rate while he rocks an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and a 35% CSW. The K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW would all be second behind only Jacob deGrom if Burnes qualified. 

There will only be two small issues I’d put out there. The first is Burnes “only” has a 34% K rate to lefties. I say only because righties whiff at a 47.5% rate, and you need a ceiling at the price tag. It also has to be noted that Burnes hasn’t hit the ceiling since he came back from Covid. Trying to measure any effects he’s going through is useless as I’m not a doctor, but I’ll simply state that the time after the virus treats everyone differently. Hopefully, he rolls out there and totally smashes the Arizona lineup but we always try and discuss anything relevant to the start at hand. The issue with the fade is where else do we go if we pass on Burnes? 

Sandy Alcantara 

I wonder if the field turns to Trevor Bauer, but I have some fears there. For those who may have missed it, MLB is supposed to be cracking down on illegal substances on the baseball. These substances can help improve RPM (revolutions per minute) and we saw during Gerrit Cole’s last start he saw a dramatic drop in RPM and got hit hard. Bauer is one of the poster children for seeing a sharp increase in RPM and I worry if MLB starts looking, he abandons whatever he’s been using. Facing Atlanta isn’t where we want to play a pitcher that is suddenly not using what he normally uses. Now, this is all theoretical. MLB isn’t supposed to enforce it for a couple of weeks but everyone in the league knows they’re watching right now. It’s enough for me to not really look at Bauer today. 

Instead, let’s take a look at Alcantara. The Pirates have been a little bit feisty in this series but I’m not super concerned about that. This is still generally a poor offense (albeit with a 23% K rate) and rank 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging. The K rate for Alcantara isn’t the best we’re going to see in this price range at 23.8% but this is more of a slate context play than anything else. He generates a 52.3% ground ball rate and that ranks eighth in the league, which does help as does the 43.6% ground ball rate for the Pirates offense. That’s the 12th highest rate against righty pitching. 

The Bucs are good against the changeup but Alcantara’s is excellent and is ranked as the best changeup in baseball on FanGraphs. He’s earned a 35.9% whiff rate, .153 wOBA, and a .167 average. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and lefties are the worse side. Alcantara has surrendered a road ERA of 5.40, but he’s made starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Braves on the road. I’m not here to put much stock into the ERA. I wish he was slightly cheaper but if you’re not interested in Bauer, Alcantara makes a lot of sense. 

Jorge Lopez 

I feel pretty strongly that the best way to attack this slate is to live up top in the Burnes, Alcantara, and possibly Bauer range. I said pitching was bad and I meant it. This pick is wildly dangerous but there is a (narrow) path to success for Lopez. His 4.02 xFIP points us to the 5.29 ERA being fairly unlucky and that’s come with a 22% HR/FB rate. What is truly bizarre is the flyball rate for Lopez is only 28.1%. This isn’t a massive flyball pitcher. Lopez is displaying a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 23.1% K rate. He’s never been above a 19.9% rate in any season he pitched more than 35 innings.

Lopez has also added velocity to the sinker and fastball and is sitting around 95 MPH. The four-seam especially has seen a sharp increase in whiff rate from 18% last year to 27.8% this season. He’ll also face 6-7 lefties and that is the better side of the plate with Lopez at a .300 wOBA, 23.8% K rate, and a 1.17 WHIP. Is anything about that spectacular? Nope. He’s $5,200 and if he can grind out 15 DK, we’d be super happy here. 

Honorable Mention 

Austin Voth – Plenty risky, but Voth has displayed a .169 wOBA and a 38.9% K rate to righties. He’s also gotten crushed by lefties for a .451 wOBA and a K rate of just 10%, so the lineup for Philly is incredibly important. They are only projected for two, which would leave me willing to take a chance here. 

Bailey Ober – He’s only pitched four innings in the majors that did not go well, but his past 40 IP in the minors have produced a K rate over 32%. He’s also never had issues with home runs so at $4,000 he can be worth a look in MME formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.6 Stacking Options 

• Astros against Steven Matz (Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado)
• Cardinals against Wade Miley (Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina)
• Marlins against Chad Kuhl (Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte)
• Dodgers against Max Fried (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Albert Pujols)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!