Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.30
We have a healthy 10 game slate on tap for tonight and the pitching is fine, if not spectacular. It may be harder to come by cheaper options at the first glance but that does remain to be seen. Let’s get into it tonight and decide who we should be targeting in the Starting Rotation 6.30 to lay our foundation for green!
Starting Rotation 6.30 – Main Targets
Aaron Nola
There is a fairly strong argument that Nola is the lone ace on this slate and I’m inclined to treat him as such. Fresh off striking out 12 Mets hitters, Nola has brought down his FIP/xFIP combo to 3.43 and 3.46. His K rate is down from last season but 28.3% is plenty to like at this salary and the Marlins are seventh in K rate themselves at 25.2%. Nola has seen a reasonably drastic change in his pitch mix, elevating the four-seam to 38% this season compared to 25% last year.
It’s interesting to note that because it has been the worst pitch of the bunch by results with a .362 wOBA and six of 12 home runs given up. The whiff rate is respectable at 24.5% but his curve carries the strikeout upside with 41 and the changeup is only one strikeout behind the four-seam at 25. I point this out not to say the four-seam should be ditched, but it is a possible reason the K rate has dipped slightly. He’s still got some nasty stuff –
The Marlins projected lineup will be a welcome sight to Nola as well. They should have six righty hitters plus the pitcher spot and Nola has been much better against that side of the plate with a .273 wOBA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 2.72 FIP. His K rate is the exact same against either side, as is the xFIP but one of the differences in the splits is the hard-hit rate. Righties only have a 27.1% rate while lefties sport a 42.7% rate. Perhaps Jazz Chisolm is an interesting GPP one-off, but past that, Nola’s spot on paper looks incredible.
Shohei Ohtani
We get a shot at Ohtani pitching in Yankee Stadium which only brings one phrase to mind –
Ohtani is continuing what could be a historic MVP campaign tonight and I mean….just look at this –
His 11 starts have been excellent for the most part. His K rate is 33.1% and the swinging-strike rate is 14.3%. Those numbers would be seventh and 12th among qualified pitchers and his splitter would rank second in FanGraphs rating behind only Kevin Gausman. It’s hard to put into words just what type of two-way season we’re witnessing but we’re only worried about the pitching tonight.
It’s not hard to see why the splitter is rated so highly as it has 48 strikeouts, a .119 wOBA, and a 56.7% whiff rate. What’s particularly fascinating is he’s only thrown 53 splitters to righties. You would think that would hurt the K rate and yet, Ohtani has a massive 42.6% K rate to righties. His slider and the four-seam have combined for 31 strikeouts and the Yankees are whiffing over 25% of the time to righties. The WHIP is 0.92, the xFIP is 2.57, and the ground ball rate is 50%. He checks all the boxes we’d want when facing 7-8 righties and we even get a narrative of pitching in New York.
Chris Bassitt
We have the A’s at home and that definitely helps Bassitt, but the home/road splits aren’t super drastic for him. The left side of the plate is one of the first aspects I look at when a pitcher faces the Rangers and Bassitt has racked up a 26.6% K rate and a 0.91 WHIP. The xFIP is 4.00 but that’s not so high as to make me totally uninterested here. Texas does have a good bit of power on the left side but will likely have more righties in the lineup and Bassitt still has a 23.3% K rate to that side and both sides are under .295 for the wOBA. Texas still whiffs over 25% of the time so far this year so the K upside isn’t hard to find here.
Bassitt’s pitch mix is interesting. He uses a variation of a fastball for almost 72% of his pitches but his slider and curve play extremely well off those three fastball styles. They both have whiff rates over 40% and the wOBA for both pitches is under .215. The four-seam, slider, and curve are the main strikeout pitches that stand out to me and Bassitt seems like a fantastic option tonight, although being the most expensive option leaves him third behind Nola and Ohtani for me.
Luis Garcia
We can’t really let many slates go by without talking righty pitching against the Orioles because that matchup has been mostly money so far this year. The cost is a bit high but the Astros will let Garcia go as long as they can tonight after Jose Urquidy left very early last night. Garcia has been stout in this Houston rotation and has a 27.4% K rate, 12.8% swinging-strike rate, and a CSW of 30.5%. His four-seam and cutter have been doing most of the strikeout work with a combined 54 of 85 thus far.
His four-seam is a bit of a conundrum because it has the most strikeouts but it’s also his worst pitch results-wise with a .385 wOBA and six of nine home runs given up. The slider and the change play well though as they both have a whiff rate over 45% and wOBA’s under .195 so we can live with the four-seam having some issues. The cutter would rank in the top-five in baseball if he qualified.
Baltimore is projected to only have two lefties in the lineup and that is perfect for Garcia. He’s held the right side of the plate down to a .240 wOBA, 0.93 WHIP, and has a 31% K rate. The xFIP is 4.24 which isn’t spectacular, but with the O’s whiffing 24.9% of the time, I’m willing to roll the dice on that. Garcia is also getting hit hard by righty hitters just 29.6% of the time so he’s in the running for one of the pitching slots tonight.
Starting Rotation 6.30 Honorable Mention
Joe Musgrove – Anytime a pitcher takes the hill with a 30.8% K rate, we have to take notice. He’s also generated a 13.6% swinging-strike rate and a 32% CSW so he’s been legitimate the entire season. If there’s anything that leaves me leaning away from him it’s the recent form of not scoring more than 20.7 DK in his past seven starts. Add in the fact that this game is in Cincy and the Reds only whiff about 22% of the time to righties and I would rather play Garcia.
Starting Rotation 6.30 Primary Stack
It’s Matt Harvey day and that means we have to be looking towards the Houston Astros. Now, you’ll notice there is no Rotation Special on this slate and there’s also no pitcher below Ohtani’s salary. I don’t see the potential for these other starters. I had Steven Matz as a possibility but he’s expensive for a player on a pitch count. So, how are we going to pull of Ohtani plus another pricey pitcher plus Astros? I’m glad you asked.
Harvey is getting waxed by righty hitters with a .419 wOBA, 2.03 WHIP, and a K rate barely above 18%. He’s using his fastball about 43% of the time to that side of the plate and it gets hit hard 50% of the time, has a .423 wOBA and .281 ISO against it, and he tops it off with a 315-foot average distance. When we look at the righties, the bottom of the lineup is what unlocks everything.
Abraham Toro and Myles Straw both hit the fastball well and Toro has a .318 ISO and .402 wOBA in his sample size. Straw hits for less power but hits for a higher average and is a threat to steal a base. Using those two hitters can get you to Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, both of whom have an ISO of at least .260 and a wOBA of at least .356 against that pitch. Correa has typically been hitting fifth, so you can start with 1-5-7-8 and make the stack unique while fitting two expensive pitchers. That still leaves us with about $3,400 for the rest of the lineup and we’re one punt away from making that work.
Starting Rotation 6.30 Secondary Stacks
- Blue Jays against Justus Sheffield
- Braves against David Peterson
- Royals against Martin Perez
- Red Sox against Mike Minor
- Phillies against Jordan Holloway
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