Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6/29
Every team in the majors is in action Tuesday night which means we have 30 pitchers to choose from! There do appear to be options from top to bottom on this slate and we have to deal with Coors Field in some capacity. Let’s not waste a whole lot of time and get directly to work in the Starting Rotation 6/29 and lay our foundation for green!
Starting Rotation 6/29 – Main Targets
Note – Both Lucas Giolito and Kenta Maeda pitch tonight and saw their salaries decrease. Both are broken down in Starting Rotation 6/28 and both of these players would get a write-up if this was just a normal slate, so the main targets list will be a touch shorter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maeda as the most popular SP2 option on the slate tonight. There’s no need to re-hash what was written in that article.
Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff is like many pitchers in that his spin rate has decreased a little bit but it had no ill effects in his last start. He struck out nine hitters on his way to 30+ DK points and that same style of upside is present tonight. He doesn’t have the same control issues that can be an issue like Freddy Peralta does and his 31% K rate compared with a 5.9% walk rate is what we love to see. His 0.76 WHIP is second to only Jacob deGrom on the season, making him extra appealing on DK where points are lost for hits and walks.
In addition to the 27.4% hard-hit rate and the 12.3% swinging-strike rate, Woodruff has at least a 26% whiff rate on all of his pitches except the sinker. Every pitch has a wOBA under .260 (again, except for the sinker) and both sides of the plate are under a .220 wOBA and a 3.05 xFIP. Given the issues Chicago continues to have with the strikeout, I have no issue paying for Woodruff tonight.
Robbie Ray
I do like Woodruff but I don’t feel he’s an absolute must-have tonight and Ray is one of the reasons why. This spot sets up incredibly well for him as his four-seam has been the key to his season. It’s given up 11 home runs but at the same time, the whiff rate is 24%, it has 50 of 103 strikeouts, and Seattle is bottom-five against the fastball this season. They do rank 13th in ISO against lefty pitching but they also sit 27th in OPS and wOBA while striking out 27.5% of the time. That’s a top-five rate in baseball against lefties and Ray is rocking a 31% K rate overall with just a 6.3% walk rate, a massive achievement for him.
The Seattle lineup also projects to set up amazingly for Ray with up to five lefty hitters. Ray has only faced 67 on the season but has owned them with a .252 wOBA, 31.3% K rate, 0.90 WHIP, and a 2.33 xFIP. He also sees a big difference in the ground-ball rate, up to 58.1% to that side compared to just 40.2% to righty hitters. Both he and Woodruff are strong plays and if not using both (it’s likely going to take the perfect offense to make that work), it could come down to who fits. I give a slight edge to Ray.
J.C. Mejia
Brian gets half the credit since he made me take a closer look at Mejia before his last start. He totaled 19 DK points and saw the bloated ERA come down closer to the 3.58 xFIP and the 3.27 FIP. When your strand rate is 59.5% and the BABIP is .306, it’s not a huge surprise the ERA looks terrible. The K rate is respectable at 23.7% and the ground ball rate is solid to go with it at 45.3%. He uses the changeup as the secondary pitch to lefties and it’s sporting a 25% whiff rate. The slider is even better at 37.5% and he’s generated 15 of his 22 strikeouts on the sinker and slider so far. The swinging-strike rate is only 9.4% which is a small concern, as is the .375 wOBA to lefties. We have to take into account that the BABIP is .361 to lefties so far and that should normalize at some point. It may not be the same spot as we saw against the Twins but the salary is still very low.
Starting Rotation Special
The Special is absolutely not cheap tonight but on a very crowded slate, I would be stunned if he gets the attention he likely should get. The matchup is difficult as well, which keeps the field from flocking to him. The opposing offense is first in OBP, eighth in slugging, third in OPS, 10th in ISO, second in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Oh, they also rank second in walk rate and only whiff 22% of the time. They rank inside the top 10 against the two main pitch types for the Special and all of this sounds like a terrible idea to play the pitcher against this offense.
He has faced them once before and the lineup from that game should look about the same as tonight. When they faced off the first time, the Special went six innings, gave up two hits, and struck out seven. The K rate overall is 30.8% and he boasts a whopping 16.3% and 33.4% swinging-strike rate and CSW combo. Both of those numbers are in the top-six in baseball among qualified pitchers. Our mystery man is slightly “worse” to lefties but both sides of the plate are under a .225 wOBA and the left side whiffs at a slightly higher 31.4%. I think there’s a good chance we get a sub-5% Kevin Gausman and he has pitched at an ace level all season long.
Starting Rotation 6/29 Honorable Mention
Trevor Rogers – The salary is just a hair higher than I’d like and we have to point out that his K rate has gone down every month so far.
That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher by any stretch, but we wouldn’t be in love with paying nearly $10,000 for a pitcher with a 26.6% K rate. Philly is whiffing over 26.5% themselves as a team against lefty pitching and they are also 26th against the fastball. That’s the bread and butter for Rogers with a 29.5% whiff rate, .299 wOBA, and 65 of 101 strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta – The Royals aren’t facing Garrett Richards tonight and Pivetta has been a lot better on the mound and he has a .305 wOBA to righty hitters. Kansas City had been ice cold rolling into last night and after Richards departed, they produced virtually nothing. His K rate to righty hitters is 27% and he’s on the radar, although the price is a bit dicey for me.
Charlie Morton – I suppose he should be given a main writeup, but I’m not convinced I want to chase Morton coming off consecutive 30+ DK point games at nearly $9,000. The Mets are getting a little healthier with Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil back in the lineup as well. Morton has a 27.4% K rate and has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA. I’m interested in how popular he is. If he winds up being chalk, I’m going to pass. If he’s under 10% or so, it could be a different story.
Zach Davies – I toyed with a full writeup but there are still some concerning signs. Davis has also gotten better as the season has worn on and through 29 IP in June, the ERA is down at 3.72 and the wOBA is .262. The K rate has come up to 17.5% and Davies has been better to lefties all year with a .305 seasonal wOBA. The xFIP is still scary all the way across the board which keeps him out of my main targets but he could be an interesting MME play.
Starting Rotation 6.28 Primary Stack
Note – Shohei Ohtani is under $5,000 and Jameson Taillon is giving up a .375 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9, and a 5.23 xFIP against lefties. I will have heavy exposure to him regardless of who else I’m playing offensively.
We all know that the Rockies and Astros will likely be popular but let’s talk about another high-powered offense. We’re heading to Fenway Park and the Red Sox draw an excellent spot against Brad Keller. The quartet of Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Alex Verdugo are all above a .385 wOBA and .210 ISO on the season. Keller has used the sinker and slider roughly 70% of the time and allows a hard-contact rate of at least 42% and those four are all very good against those two pitchers, Devers especially.
Hitters like Hunter Renfroe and Bobby Dalbec are on the radar as well. Renfroe has a .254 Iso against the slider and Dalbec is less of a strikeout concern with Keller on the mound. I would plan to plug in Verdugo, pick two of Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez, and then pair them with Ohtani. We just need a cheap hitter or two to round everything out.
Secondary Stacks
- Rockies against Chase de Jong
- Astros against Alexander Wells
- Blue Jays against Chris Flexen
- Cleveland against Jose Urena
- Reds against Blake Snell (Castellanos especially at $4,000)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
