Starting Rotation 6.28

Starting Rotation 6.28

We’re back to our regularly scheduled programming tonight with a healthy nine games on the MLB slate! We have two of the bigger names on the mound this evening and then the quality drops off for the most part. At the first look, we may be picking one of the top two pitchers and then trying to gauge what to do after that so let’s go to work in the Starting Rotation 6.28! 

Starting Rotation 6.28 – Main Targets

Freddy Peralta 

Until the Cubs force us to stop, we have to consider any pitcher against them with even a moderate strikeout pedigree. Peralta is far above moderate and sits second among qualified pitchers with a 36.4% K rate. His 14.4% swinging-strike rate is 12th in the league and he just went six innings while whiffing 10 Arizona hitters. Any start like that is encouraging since we can put fears of substance usage to bed. His spin rate was down a hair but it wasn’t alarming and he’s been outspoken on the subject. Chicago will not stop striking out and now lead baseball in K rate to righty pitching at 26.5%. Just look at these past 10-12 games for the Cubs and how many times they’re whiffing (this doesn’t count the game last night as Clayton Kershaw whiffed 10+ by himself) – 

Now, I wouldn’t say that Peralta is going to get 16 hitters to strike out but the upside is palpable. He’s pitched three times against Chicago this year, totaling 15 IP, three ER, 15 K’s, and only eight total hits allowed. His walks were a hair high but the control has gotten better as the year has gone and he’s at 10.5% for the walk rate. It’s not ideal but Chicago is only 18th in walk rate themselves. Both his fastball and slider are top 12 in FanGraphs rating and they have 105 of 114 strikeouts with a 30.5% whiff rate or higher. To me, he is the top arm on the slate and will be an anchor for the majority of my lineups. 

Trevor Bauer 

I’m always transparent with you guys and I’ll be perfectly honest – I have no idea what to do with Bauer tonight. His spin rates continue to be on the downward trend and I think there’s little reason to not believe he was using some sort of substance (as were a lot of pitchers, I’m not really singling Bauer out). We’ve seen good and bad from him lately and the last start was very good even with the spin rate drop as he whiffed 10 Padres. Even giving up three earned runs isn’t that bad when you strike out 10. This spot stands out as a high strikeout potential game for Bauer as the Giants whiff 25.8% of the time but man could this one go wrong. 

To his full credit, Bauer has faced the Giants once and whiffed 11 hitters over 6.1 IP so he’s had success against this team. Bauer is also going to draw a lineup that is first in ISO, fifth in OPS, fifth in wOBA, fourth in wRC+, and ninth in OBP. On top of that, the Giants can throw out five lefties and that’s the weaker part of the splits for Bauer with a 1.88 HR/9 and a 4.44 xFIP. The pitch data would suggest that the cutter and curve play a major role in the issues with lefties. Those are two of the main three pitches Bauer uses against lefties and they both have a wOBA over .310 (and a whiff rate of 32.5%) and have combined for nine of 17 home runs allowed. Bauer has the same exact ceiling that Peralta has but I believe the floor is significantly lower tonight. 

Kenta Maeda 

Note – A large chunk of this analysis is from the 6.26 Rotation article. Since the Twins were rained out, Maeda is starting tonight but the metrics remain the same for Maeda. Only the matchup has changed. 

I still think Maeda could be chalk again and his game log looks sort of worse than it should. He was very good through five innings before slipping in the sixth. That’s not a big surprise since he only threw 76 pitches in the first game back. He’ll need to continue to build up but the last time on the mound, he still generated a 39% whiff rate on the slider and 30% on the splitter. The slider was up from the seasonal number of 28.7% and that’s what we want to see from a primary pitch. 

There are still some issues in Maeda’s profile since returning and in his 9.1 IP he has a 4.35 xFIP. The K rate is 27.5% but righties have been tough on him with a .371 wOBA. The K rate overall is only 20.9% on the season so we have to hope that comes up. One aspect that has to be pointed out is the BABIP to both sides is over .310 and in June, it’s come down to .261. I’m not head over heels for Maeda but he is still too cheap. We’ve talked lately about the White Sox as an offense we don’t have to be as scared of as the perception still is. The good news is the ground ball rate is over 40% to each side, the White Sox still lead the league in ground ball rate, and they whiff 24% of the time. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This pitcher looks terrible on the surface but let’s take a bit of a deeper dive. We have to understand the sample size here is very small (hint right there) so everything about him is with a grain of salt. The K rate is 27.8% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.8%. That speaks to some upside worth chasing through the risk. The xFIP is also 3.94 and the SIERA is 3.59, both of which are quite solid and he can’t continue to suffer through a .406 BABIP. The Rotation Special is mostly a three-pitch pitcher and in his last start, he generated a 36% whiff rate across 71 total pitches. 

Each of his primary pitches has produced a whiff rate of at least 25% so far and really my largest fear is he’s been a fly-ball pitcher through the minors. That’s an easy way to get bitten by the home run ball in the majors. We’re not expecting him to give up zero runs, but Eli Morgan was able to score 18.9 DK last time out with four runs given up due to nine strikeouts. The Tigers have the same seasonal K rate as the Cubs at 26.5% and he should be good for around 80 pitches tonight, perhaps a bit more if things go well. He actually held the Cubs to one run through five innings before things went sideways a bit in the last start.

Starting Rotation 6.28 Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher this season overall with his K rate falling by about 3% and the xFIP climbing just a tad to 3.56. That’s not poor by any stretch and we have to point out the Twins lineup could actually work to the favor of Giolito. Minnesota only whiffs 22.9% of the time to righties but they are projected to have five lefties in the lineup. Giolito has a .249 wOBA to lefties compared to a .349 mark to righties. The K rate is also higher for lefties at 32.8%. Minnesota has fallen to 18th against the fastball so I want to see two things here. The first is the Twins lineup and the second is projected ownership. If he’s 20% or higher, I’d rather just go Peralta. If he’s under 10%, we can talk seriously about using him in a double-ace build. 

Zack Greinke – He feels awfully pricey to me and even though he scored 22.9 DK points in his last start against this Baltimore offense, can he score higher? He’s wildly unpredictable as four of his last 10 starts have been under 12 DK and four have been above 23 DK. Baltimore is over 25% for their K rate to righty pitching but Greinke has fallen below 18% for his mark. I’m not sure I can justify paying that salary when Bauer, Giolito, and Peralta are all above 30%. 

Matt Manning – I suppose you could take a run at Manning but the early returns on the young righty haven’t been too spectacular. The K rate is only 8.9% and the xFIP is 5.51, both of which are problematic. We’re only talking a sample size of 19 hitters but the .352 wOBA and 6.22 xFIP against lefty hitters is a primary concern here as well. You’d be playing him for the hope that things click and with his pedigree, that is within the realm of possibility. 

Starting Rotation 6.28 Primary Stack 

We’re continuing to evolve the Starting Rotation and I’m going to start laying out my case for a primary stack on each slate. Tonight, it’s pretty easy since the Houston Astros face off against Thomas Eshelman and the Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s pen is not that terrible as they rank about average in SIERA and xFIP, but they do rank 24th in HR/9. Regardless, they pitch too many innings because the starters are not good and Houston should have their way tonight. 

Eshelman has only started two games but has thrown a sinker as his primary pitch. It has yet to record a single swing and miss and carries a .560 wOBA. Throughout his career, the splits are about dead even for the wOBA around .360 and the HR/9 is over 2.00 to each side as well. Jose Altuve, Myles Straw, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, and Abraham Toro all have wOBA’s over .305 against righty sinkers and this entire lineup is well in play. Toro is the only hitter in the lineup that does not have a wOBA over .320 this season and even then, I’d be happy to play him to save some salary. The lineup is almost certainly chalk so don’t be afraid to get a little different with a wraparound stack. 

Secondary Stacks 

• D-Backs against Wade LeBlanc 
• Mets against Paolo Espino 
• Angels against Michael King 
• Yankees against Dylan Bundy 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!