Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.25
We are back for a busy Friday night on the diamond and I thought we might have some fantastic options when I looked at the probable pitchers. The bad news is we got robbed of Corbin Burnes and Aaron Nola because those games start at 4:00 today. Things should get a bit more condensed with those options unavailable to us. Let’s talk about the upper tier and a bunch more in the Starting Rotation 6.25 to lay the foundation for our green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.25 – Main Targets
Carlos Rodon
Rodon is going to be heavy chalk I would suspect and he’s just been outstanding this season. His four-seam and slider have been borderline untouchable with a total of 103 strikeouts out of 105 he’s recorded. Both pitches have a wOBA of .230 or worse and both are over a 30% whiff rate. If he qualified, the slider would rank sixth among the league in FanGraphs rating. His swinging-strike rate is 15.7% and would rank seventh and the CSW of 30.8% is excellent as well. If the Mariners go with their normal lineup against lefties, it could go heavily in Rodon’s favor. On the season, Rodon has faced 49 lefties and they have a .165 wOBA, .071 WHIP, 2% walk rate, and a 2.11 xFIP. They also only have a 23.3% hard-hit rate and Seattle typically has five lefties in their lineup. Rodon checks every possible box for us as a play tonight and he’s easy to anchor to when Burnes and Nola are out of the running.
Framber Valdez
I’m not sure if I’d say Valdez is a pivot away from Rodon because I don’t particularly want to fade him. However, Valdez could be argued for a double-ace approach and that could get interesting. Valdez is not typically the player we target at this price point with just a 22.1% K rate but the Tigers should help that as they whiff the most against lefty pitchers at 29.6%. The sinker/curve combo has been the bread and butter for Valdez and while his sinker is just average with a 16.1% whiff rate and a .255 wOBA, the curve has been fantastic.
It boasts 24 strikeouts already across 126 pitches and on 20 BBE, it has given up four total hits. Valdez also has a 71.1% ground ball rate and I grant you we don’t want ground balls at this salary, but it’s a nice weapon to have to eat innings. It’s part of the reason he’s pitched at least seven innings in all four of his starts he wasn’t on a pitch count and he has 25+ DK point upside tonight.
Pablo Lopez
The game logs for Lopez certainly look odd in the past three starts as two of them have been over 30 DK and one has been in the negatives. That’s not exactly what you want but he’s in a solid spot again. Washington does only strike out 22.7% to righty pitching but the offense is right in the middle of the pack in our offensive categories. Frankly, if Kyle Schwarber would stop hitting home runs this offense would look even worse. Lopez has a 25% K rate, 48.2% ground ball rate, and a 3.50 xFIP. He loves home cooking and he’s one of the few that I weigh that home/road split. He has a 1.89 ERA and the wOBA to both sides of the plate under .250. The Washington lineup is righty-heavy and Lopez features a 30.6% K rate to that side of the plate with just a 3.01 xFIP. Those numbers get better at home to the shock of nobody and even with the changeup being the lead pitch, it has a .288 wOBA and 44 strikeouts. The price is slightly high but coming off a 30 DK point game, it’s hard to complain too much.
Chris Paddack
It has been a hot minute since Paddack has been featured but we have to talk about consecutive games over 25 DK points. One facet that stands out is he generated at least a 44% whiff rate on his changeup compared to a 33.7% rate on the season. That is a fairly large jump, so I’m not sure if he’ll replicate the DK scores but that doesn’t mean we can’t look at him here. I’d be lying if I said I have total confidence in Paddack because I haven’t touched him as a play in a very long time. Looking at his metrics this season, that may have been a mistake. His K rate has climbed to almost 26% with a walk rate of just 5.3%. The 4.10 ERA looks very average but his FIP is 3.52 and the xFIP is 3.43 so there has been some tough luck, including a .301 BABIP.
Paddack also has a 44.9% ground ball rate to go along with a 13.2% swinging-strike rate which is the best of his career. What also helps him along is the splits as the left side of the plate sits at a .260 wOBA, 23.1% K rate, and a 3.60 xFIP. After a tough start, Paddack has righted the ship from May on with an ERA under 3.75 and his K rate at home is 28.2%. Paddack always has had better success in San Diego so he’s in the running tonight.
Starting Rotation Special
The Special doesn’t always have to be a punt and there’s a pitcher that has my eyes right now that I think the field will not turn to at all. We rarely target this lineup with a lefty pitcher but since the start of June, the offense has slipped to around the middle of the road against a certain handedness. They also have whiffed 24.6% of the time since the month started and no fewer than six hitters are on the IL. Only three current hitters have a wOBA over .370 and two of them whiff over 20% of the time. The offense also is seventh in ground ball rate at 47.2%.
As far as the pitcher goes, he counters with a 52.1% ground ball rate and a 25.3% K rate. If he can get by the top of the lineup, the bottom of it does not look that strong. This pitcher only allows a 26.9% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% swinging-strike rate, a career-best. His 31.5% CSW is 10th in baseball on top of all that so there is some serious talent here. The Special will face 7-8 righties but that’s not an issue as the wOBA is .295, the K rate is 25.1%, and the xFIP is just 3.66. Both of his secondary pitches have at least a 32.9% whiff rate and Yusei Kikuchi is an option that I very much doubt gets much traction tonight.
Starting Rotation 6.25 Honorable Mention
Alek Manoah – The Orioles have gotten smashed by any pitcher lately and even though Manoah couldn’t take advantage of the matchup last time, it’s still there. He whiffs both sides of the plate at 25.6% or higher and he only walks righties 5.4% of the time. The home run ball has bitten him hard so far but it’s not been a big issue through the minors, so we can consider him again tonight.
Griffin Jax – I’m not sure how smart this would be, but Jax is only $4,000. He’s had a ground ball rate of at least 41% through the minors so the 18.5% rate through 8.1 IP in the majors seems sort of out of place. He should only face three righty hitters and the lefties are only at a .310 wOBA so far (16 hitters so let’s not pretend this is a sample size) with a 3.72 xFIP. The K rate is also 25% with a .364 BABIP. If he grinds out 12-15 DK, it absolutely opens things up but this could go horrendously wrong.
Starting Rotation 6.25 Stacking Options
- Blue Jays against Matt Harvey
- Astros against Wily Peralta
- Padres against Corbin Martin
- Dodgers against Jake Arrieta
- Rays against Griffin Canning
- Reds against Drew Smyly
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
