Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.24
We’re back for an eight-game slate tonight and looking to replicate the success we saw yesterday! It’s not going to be easy because the options tonight are not all that great on the surface. One duo stands out and I already can see them becoming the chalk pair. Let’s talk about those two and some other options in the Starting Rotation 6.24 to lay our foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.24 – Main Targets
Walker Buehler
I did my once-over of this slate and let out an exasperated sigh because A. the options are sketchy and B. Buehler is the clear top option on paper. I already dislike paying the high salary for him and if you’ve read through this season, you know we rarely get along. Every time I play Buehler he pitches poorly and if I fade him as chalk, he goes seven innings and smashes. This spot stands out for a couple of reasons and one of them is just how much Chicago’s offense can struggle against righty pitching. They have power potential as they rank seventh in ISO and 12th in slugging. However, the flip side is ranking 22nd in OBP and sporting a ghastly K rate of 26.1%. Just look at how pitchers have fared against them in the past few games –
The typical Chicago lineup has five lefties in it and Buehler is slightly worse to lefties with a .278 wOBA and just a 22.5% K rate. Still, the Cubs can very clearly elevate the strikeout potential for any pitcher that toes the rubber. The four-seam is the key to this start with 47 strikeouts out of the 88 he has on the season. Perhaps the reason Buehler is a bit worse to lefties is that he uses the cutter and curve more to lefties. The cutter is the main issue with a .311 wOBA but that simply isn’t enough to sway me away from him at home on an overall poor pitching slate.
Luis Garcia
It says a good deal about this slate that Garcia is the second man in for me, despite having some struggles to the left side of the plate. Through 125 batters faced this year, Garcia has given up a .331 wOBA with a 1.53 HR/9. However, the xFIP of 3.67 and the BABIP of .321 tells us there’s been some poor luck involved. He still has a 24.8% K rate to that side of the plate and it jumps to 30.6% against righties. The main issue by the metrics in front of us is the four-seam fastball.
Garcia has thrown a four-seam on 52% of his total pitches to lefties and it’s given up a .375 wOBA with just an 18.3% whiff rate. The good news is the change and the curve are second and third, and both of those pitches feature a whiff rate of at least 32.8%. Overall, Garcia is allowing just a 31.7% hard-contact rate and generating a 12.9% swinging-strike rate along with a 31% CSW. Detroit has certainly improved but they also still lead the league in K rate to righties at 26.5% on the season.
Starting Rotation Special
So for full transparency, I don’t see myself straying from Buehler and Garcia tonight. There are so many pitchers like J.C. Mejia, Jose Urena, Josh Tomlin, and Michael Wacha who can be dismissed out of hand. Joe Ross has some potential but not at an absurd ask of $9,600. We’re not going to use Zach Davies against the Dodgers and Dean Kremer against Toronto…well, I’ll take my loss if he goes out and shoves against the Jays. All that brings us to the Rotation Special tonight and like all of them, he’s risky. DON’T get too crazy with him.
The mystery man has been slightly better to righty hitters and I do emphasize slightly. The .312 wOBA isn’t anything to write home about, the K rate is only 16.7%, and the hard-hit rate is down at 21.2%. He also generates a strong 49% ground ball rate so we have to hope that the 5.40 xFIP doesn’t bite us against the righty-heavy lineup. The opposing offense only whiffs 23.1% of the time but also only walks 7.5%. This offense also ranks in the bottom 10 this year in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
What I’m hoping for is the continued ditching of the sinker. On the season, this pitcher has thrown the sinker 22.3% for a pathetic 5.9% whiff rate and a .411 wOBA. However, he only threw it 9% of the time in his last start and had what was easily his best DK score of the year at 19.9. His slider is not that bad and is the primary pitch to either side but especially righty hitters. It has a 32.4% whiff rate and 18 of 27 strikeouts. It may not be a perfect match, but there is a path to a 12-15 DK point start and Chad Kuhl against the Cardinals is about the only other pitcher I have a small interest in tonight.
Starting Rotation 6.24 Stacking Options
- Rays against Nick Pivetta – Lefties especially as Pivetta has a 4.94 xFIP and a .343 wOBA given up
- Cleveland against Jose Berrios – This one is not for the faint of heart because Cleveland is not a great offense but they do normally have six lefties in the lineup. Berrios has a 4.17 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and a .391 wOBA. The BABIP is sky-high at .358 but there is a good reason for that. He uses the four-seam as the primary pitch to lefties and it’s getting tagged for a .384 wOBA and only generating a 17.9% whiff rate.
- Braves against Tony Santillan – Of course, it is very early in his career but righties have destroyed him with a .573 wOBA so far.
- Astros against Jose Urena – Lefties especially
- Orioles against Anthony Kay – Hitters like Austin Hays, Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, and Freddy Galvis could be the key to unlocking the high-salaried pitching I feel we need.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
