Starting Rotation 6.19

Starting Rotation 6.19

It’s Saturday and that means we get the split slate for our MLB action today! The afternoon is an eight-game slate and the evening is seven, which would typically mean we’d go with a full breakdown for the afternoon. However, today we’re going in a little bit different direction and doing the full breakdown for the evening slate. To my eyes, there are a multitude more directions to go in the evening so let’s dig into that and more in the Starting Rotation 6.19! 

Starting Rotation 6.19 – Afternoon Slate

Alex Wood – I stayed away last game due to that matchup but Wood walked right through Arizona for 23.9 DK points. Today, he draws the Phillies lineup at home and Philly is sixth in K rate to lefty pitching at 27.4%. Philly is also 19th against the slider and that has been the out pitch for Wood with 45 of his 61 strikeouts. It also has the lowest wOBA among the three pitches and a 40.7% whiff rate. Wood has shown fairly consistent upside this season and carries a 3.59 xFIP into this start. The salary doesn’t match the potential in this start with Philly ranking no higher than 16th in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. 

Alek Manoah – This is an excellent spot for the youngster as Baltimore ranks in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, slugging, OBP, and average. They do come “up” to 21st in ISO and they also whiff 25% of the time. I really do like to see him mixing his pitches as all four are thrown at least 10% of the time and the four-seam is only used 42% of the time. Often when a prospect comes up, they can rely too much on the main pitches. We do have to point out that the xFIP of 4.58 doesn’t exactly match the 2.66 ERA but I’m not sure Baltimore is equipped to take advantage. Manoah boasts a 25.3% K rate and a 12.2% swinging-strike rate, which are both great for this early in his young career. 

Aaron Nola – I feel like we have to mention him because he’s the biggest name, but it’s undeniably a difficult spot. He is worse to lefties with a .336 wOBA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1.59 HR/9. That’s not exactly what you want when facing the Giants but they do whiff at a top-five rate of 26.1%. I would plan to stick with Wood and Manoah personally as I don’t think spending up is the best course. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Honorable Mention

Chris Bassitt – He’s far too expensive for my liking but the Yankees do have their offensive issues against righty pitching. Bassitt sports a 25.6% K rate himself but paying over $11,000 requires a massive score and I don’t think that’s the likeliest outcome. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Stacking Options 

• Blue Jays 
• Red Sox 
• Cubs 
• Mets 
• Cleveland/Pirates 

Starting Rotation 6.19 – Evening Slate 

Walker Buehler 

I’m legitimately hesitant every single start with Buehler and I’ll be the first to tell you I have some bias with him. He’s just not a guy I like to play and I almost always feel like he’s overpriced for a 23.8% K rate. That’s easily his lowest mark in the majors and the 11.6% swinging-strike rate is lower than last season as well. On paper, it isn’t the best spot as Buehler is weaker to the left side of the plate with a .296 wOBA, 4.09 xFIP, and the K rate drops to 21.3%. Perhaps the Diamondbacks’ struggles against the fastball are what can do them in and Buehler did post 30 DK against them once already. Buehler seems to rarely get blown up in any start so he does have some element of safety even if he’s not my favorite fantasy pitcher. 

Lance Lynn 

If the splits hold up for Lynn, this honestly isn’t that poor of a matchup for him. Houston should have to roll out 6-7 righty hitters and are missing Kyle Tucker. Lynn is incredible to the right side of the plate with a .211 wOBA, 0.78 WHIP, 2.98 xFIP, and a 34.5% K rate. I grant you that Houston doesn’t strike out much and they are last in K rate at 19.2%. Lynn can still get the job done and you can pencil him in for around 100 pitches every single start. He also only gives up a 25.3% hard-hit rate to the right side and overall the K rate is above 28%. I wonder if the price tag keeps the field off of him but I’m interested regardless. 

Patrick Sandoval 

I couldn’t imagine a time last season when Sandoval wasn’t going to be a target to stack against, but he has been fantasy relevant in his last three starts. Anyone can have good starts but when you see two of them came against Oakland and Arizona, that has my curiosity. Then we pull up his pitch data and now he has my attention because his mix is way different than last season. Sandoval used the four-seam 44% of the time last year and it’s demonstrably a poor pitch as the wOBA is over .400 for 2020 and 2021. What Sandoval has done is “hidden” it a bit more and mixed it with a sinker (also not a good pitch, it rarely is anymore) and he still uses the slider. His change is really the leader with a 58.9% whiff rate and only a .191 wOBA allowed. 

His xFIP is just 3.97 and he’s generating a ground ball rate of 53.2%. Even if we toggle to the start of May 1st, Detroit is more of a 15-20 offense in our normal categories and is still over a 25% K rate. They are also over 44% in ground ball rate so that does help. Sandoval has a .325 wOBA to righty hitters and will face around 7-8 of them, but he also has a .313 BABIP to that side. This is a risky play at the salary but when young pitchers change their pitch mix and see results, it is interesting. With Sandoval only having 109.1 IP under his belt and still just 24-years old, perhaps something is clicking. Be very aware this could go south and if you took the approach to stack Detroit, I couldn’t say you’re way off-base. 

Austin Gomber 

Before we go any further, we have to acknowledge just how unbelievable Gomber has been in Coors Field this season. To this point, he has it figured out with a 0.95 ERA, .204 wOBA, 22.6% K rate, 0.81 WHIP, and a 47.8% ground ball rate. Now, this sample is just 28.1 IP and the xFIP is over 4.00 so there will be some style of regression. It’s still impressive considering his home starts have been Padres twice, Dodgers, Astros, and Rangers. That’s not the easiest set of offenses to take out anywhere, let alone Coors. 

Only two of his 14 starts have resulted in more than three earned runs allowed and 11 have been two or fewer. His one terrifyingly poor start is pretty far in the rearview right now and he shouldn’t be this cheap. I would bet the DK algorithm just picks up Coors and goes there. Milwaukee can be a boom or bust offense as they sit eighth in ISO but are below average in OBP, slugging, wRC+, and wOBA. The Brew Crew also sports a K rate of 28.6% which is the third-highest in baseball. This feels very much like the first time I’ve ever written up pitchers three days in a row in Coors, but here we are. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Honorable Mention 

Josh Fleming – Attacking Seattle typically goes well but Fleming has a K rate under 15%. I understand he’s cheap and we don’t need 7-8 strikeouts from him but it’s hard to get behind a pitcher with that little upside on paper. 

Logan Gilbert – This would be the wild pick that could pay off as Gilbert might be settling into the majors a little bit. In the past three starts, he’s combined for 17.2 IP, 18 strikeouts, six walks, and just four earned runs. He’s scored at least 15 DK points and his swinging-strike rate is over 12.2%. We know the Rays can whiff at a top-five rate (currently sit second at 26.2% against righty pitching) but beware – we’ve seen the downside from him and the Rays can also be very dangerous. I do like he’s starting to throw the changeup a little more because it has a 63.6% whiff rate, but he’s not using it enough to count on yet (only about 10% of the time last start). 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Stacking Options 

• Rockies
• Dodgers
• Cardinals 
• Angels 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!