Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.18
I feel like we say this somewhat often anymore but for a 15 game slate, pitching is far from ideal tonight. The only two legitimate aces are in pretty tough spots and the second tier has issues as well. Even at high salaries, the risk is going to be higher than normal and we’ll do our best to dodge the grenades. Let’s get into the Starting Rotation 6.18 and see who’s going to toe the rubber for us tonight to help get to the green!
Starting Rotation 6.18 – Main Targets
Jose Berrios
It should tell you something that Berrios is the first man in the article. He is Mr. Inconsistency but it can be argued he inherits the best spot for a pitcher tonight. Depending on what day you look, Texas hovers between second and sixth in K rate at about 26%. Berrios himself is right at 26% which would be the highest of his career even if it’s not by a whole lot. What is interesting is the walk rate of 6.4% which has helped the WHIP come down to 1.09. It’s never been below 1.14 before so that is notable. What isn’t all that fun is the swinging-strike rate is down to 10.4% but on this slate, I’m not sure how picky we can be.
The downright scary part of this matchup is the lefty hitters. Texas likely plays five lefties and Berrios has gotten smacked by them so far with a .395 wOBA, 1.91 HR/9, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 4.18 xFIP. Those numbers come with a .348 BABIP so they likely won’t continue to be as poor as they look but that’s not what you’re looking for here. His curve is always the key since he throws it the most and it does have a .227 wOBA and a 37.5% whiff rate. The issue comes from the four-seam and the .398 wOBA it carries. The lefty metrics make a lot more sense when you realize that is his primary pitch to the left side of the plate and it only has an 18.2% whiff rate. If Berrios isn’t chalky, I’ll be happy to bail on him and not play him but with his DK salary, I’d be surprised if he’s not very popular.
Carlos Rodon
Something has to give here because Rodon has been out of this world and the Astros are one of the toughest offenses against lefty pitching. If Rodon qualified, his fastball would rank third and his slider would rank sixth in FanGraphs rating and it is not difficult to see why. Those pitches have combined for 95 strikeouts and both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .235. The slider especially has been nasty with four hits allowed out of 27 BBE and zero home runs. It’s a definitive strength-on-strength battle since Houston is the best team in baseball against the slider and it’s not like the rest of the matchup gets any easier for Rodon.
While he does boast a 37.2% K rate and a 16% swinging-strike rate, Houston simply does not whiff to lefties. Their K rate as a lineup is 17.2% and the next lowest team is the Orioles (hint hint) at 20.9%. They also rank in the top three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Oddly, they are 13th in ISO but even if they lack top-end power they still hit lefties at an elite level. Rodon is dead even in K rate to both sides of the plate at 37.2% and the xFIP to righties is only 2.98. You could argue this is the toughest offense he’s faced so far even with the Astros being down Alex Bregman, and the tough matchup is one of the main reasons I suspect Berrios to be chalky.
Corbin Burnes
I’ll be honest, the only pitch that matters a ton to me in pitch data for opposing teams against Burnes is the cutter and Colorado doesn’t look like a giant threat in that metric. We saw Woodruff go very low-owned last night (and get hammered) and I could see Burnes being the same way tonight coming off a poor fantasy start against the Bucs last time out. He was uncharacteristically wild last time with three walks and eight hits allowed, but he also got BABIP’d to death in that start. He still whiffed eight hitters in just four innings and the K is King.
His HR/9 is 0.28, the xFIP is 1.76, the FIP is 1.01, and his ground ball rate is 50.8% on the season. These are elite metrics across the board and he has one of the best cutters in baseball. It has 58 strikeouts, a 34.4% whiff rate, and a .266 wOBA thus far which is excellent. Burnes should face a balanced lineup but and strikes out righties at a 47.9% rate. Even with the Coors effect, I’m loving that. Lefties are the “worse” side but they still whiff 35.2% of the time and only have a .260 wOBA. It’s an elite pitcher in a terrible park and what is generally a poor offense, so I think we can take some chances here. Just understand the floor is low.
Robbie Ray
If I’m forced to guess, I think Ray and Berrios would be the chalk combo tonight. Ray is still not super pricey for what he’s been accomplishing on the field this season, including a 32.1% K rate. This spot definitely has issues, however. As we alluded to earlier, Baltimore has the second-lowest K rate to lefties in baseball. It does help a little that Baltimore is also in the bottom half of the league against the fastball and that’s been the money pitch for Ray as far as strikeouts go. It has 43 of 92 but the bad news is it has given up 10 home runs and has a .332 wOBA. Of the 16 bombs Ray has surrendered, 14 have come from the right side of the plate and Baltimore could roll out eight righties while sitting 10th in ISO against lefty pitching. The xFIP to righties is just 3.25 but I believe that might be a touch misleading. He’s always going to have an elevated HR/FB rate with the amount of four-seam fastballs he pumps in. Much like Berrios, I’d play Ray in cash if I need to but would be looking elsewhere in other formats.
Starting Rotation 6.18 Honorable Mention – This section is a little larger than normal since the slate is without any slam dunk plays.
James Kaprielian – I have the same concerns with Kaprielian as we’ve had the past few starts – the 4.88 xFIP tells a much different story than the 2.51 ERA. Still, he does have a .211 wOBA to righty hitting along with a 31.9% K rate. The Yankees have struggled mightily as an offense with a 25.5% K rate and ranking mid-pack in ISO, OPS, and wOBA.
Yusei Kikuchi – He’ll either get smacked or put up 25 DK points and I’m not sure exactly which one. The rust isn’t there but the Rays whiff against lefty pitching at a 28.3% rate and rank 25th in ISO, 26th in OPS, 24th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. Kikuchi features a 51.6% ground ball rate and a 25.7% K rate and the 3.54 xFIP to righties isn’t terrible either. The range of outcomes is wild here, leading Kikuchi to not be mentioned as one of the main targets.
Trevor Bauer – I should at least mention him but there’s a 0% chance I’ll play Bauer. I’m just shocked, shocked I tell you to see his performance go in the tank right when the scandal about sticky stuff started. Bauer has given up 12 earned runs in the last four starts and hasn’t cleared 19.4 DK points.
Jose Urena – I almost got nuts and wrote him up since the Angels are so righty heavy. He’s got them at a .310 wOBA but what held me back was the Angels are 27th in ground ball rate on the year. I’d much rather use Urena when the ground ball rate potential is there because the K upside isn’t. The Angels are whiffing over 25% of the time so perhaps just a share or two in MME formats.
Starting Rotation 6.18 Stacking Options
- Red Sox against Jackson Kowar (Any Boston Hitter in the lineup)
- Twins against Mike Foltynewicz (Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Nelson Cruz, lefties at the bottom of the lineup)
- Giants against Vince Velasquez (Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade Jr., Buster Posey)
- Cardinals against Max Fried (Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina)
- A’s against Jameson Taillon (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Mitch Moreland if Olson is too pricey)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
