Starting Rotation 6.17

Starting Rotation 6.17

It is a little bit of a slower day in the majors and we only have eight games tonight. We do have another Coors slate on our hands but it might not be the same “jam in the bats” game it normally can be. It may even be time to use a pitcher in Coors but we’ll get to that and more in Starting Rotation 6.17! 

Starting Rotation 6.17 – Main Targets 

Brandon Woodruff 

It’s not the most usual approach to use pitchers in Coors but Woodruff has been too good to pass up totally. The xFIP and FIP are 2.72 and 2.49 each while the ERA is only 1.52. His K rate is 31.5% and even though Colorado has a 20.4% K rate to righties at home, Woodruff still has the goods to overcome that. He’s generated a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a 31.6% CSW all while sporting a 47.6% ground ball rate. In addition to all of that, his hard-hit rate is only 26.7% and all of these metrics support a path to success even in Colorado. Woodruff also holds both sides of the plate to a .211 wOBA or lower with a WHIP of no higher than 0.80. All three of the secondary pitches have a whiff rate over 23% so Woodruff can go with what’s working best in the thin air. The slate lacks a true ace outside of Woodruff and I’ll be fascinated to see what the field does with him. 

Marcus Stroman 

Stroman is continuing to display the best strikeout upside of his career and while that’s only 21.5%, it offers something that Stroman has not always had. Stroman also continues to do the one thing he always has in generate ground balls at 54.8% this season, second in the league. He’s never had a swinging-strike rate of 12% that he’s sporting this season and the swing rate in total against Stroman is 5% higher than last year. Before anyone asks, his spin rates are totally consistent with 2020 so I wouldn’t jump to expect regression with the MLB crackdown on sticky stuff. 

The Cubs are still striking out a ton and whiffed 12 times against Taijuan Walker, then had to face Jacob deGOAT, and now have to deal with Stroman with their K rate of almost 26%. Not counting his sinker, Stroman has a whiff rate above 28% on everything else and the wOBA is under .235 on everything as well. Both sides of the plate are under .290 for the wOBA and he’s better against lefties. The Cubs likely have 4-5 in the lineup and even though the K rate dips to 19.3% to that side, the Cubs help even that out. The ground ball rate to lefties is 60% and the whole package is enough for me to play Stroman happily tonight. 

Shohei Ohtani 

Ohtani might be as low in salary as I’d really want to go tonight and to be honest, you could build a case to fade him and go with Stroman instead. The weakness for Ohtani has been lefty hitters so far, even though the past two starts he’s started to rectify that. Ohtani has pitched against the Mariners and D-Backs in the past two starts and accumulated 18 strikeouts to go against two walks and given up four earned runs over 11 IP. He’s brought down the wOBA to .300 against lefty pitching with a 4.13 xFIP and a 28% K rate. Detroit still leads the league in K rate to righty pitching at 27.2% so, despite the fact Detroit likely has six lefties, there is still upside for Ohtani. 

Not only can hitters still not figure out the splitter from Ohtani, he uses it more to lefties than righties. It has 45 of 68 strikeouts on the year and has given up four hits, two singles, and two doubles. It seems like the struggles against lefties is evening out for Ohtani and the past two starts have been tough spots by the splits but he’s made it through more than fine. Lefty hitters will almost certainly be the “weaker” side for Ohtani, but there’s still plenty of room to play him and if you’re not interested in Woodruff, the Stroman/Ohtani combo is appealing. 

Wade Miley 

Alright, so I sort of lied. I might drop below Ohtani but this is the Starting Rotation Special. We typically try to find a pitcher that will scare off most of the field and Miley is going to be that guy for me tonight. Now, you look at the Padres lineup with Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and others and the first instinct isn’t to attack them with a lefty pitcher. The reality is the stats for the Padres against lefties are not good at all this season. They rank 28th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, 22nd in OBP, and dead last in OPS and ISO. The K rate isn’t immense at 23.3% but they also lead the league in ground ball rate against lefties at 49.2%. That is a very big deal with Miley generating a 56.8% ground ball rate himself and that would rank second if he qualified. Miley also has a 20.1% K rate and has both sides of the plate at a .275 wOBA or lower. He’s not a lefty that struggles with lefties either as the 39 lefty hitters he has faced only have a .194 wOBA and a 23.1% K rate. San Diego could well put out three lefties and Miley has a very clear path to success in this start with the Padres coming out of Coors Field. 

Starting Rotation 6.17 Honorable Mention

Rich Hill – The Mariners’ offense can certainly be had with a 27.4% K rate but I’ll voice the same pitch count concerns I did last time. Hill struggled more in his last start but only threw 70 pitches after throwing right around 50 in his previous two starts. At this point, I’m not sure he can throw more than 80 even if he’s cruising. The Rays are also going to be careful with their starters now that they lost their ace Tyler Glasnow for likely the season. 

Joe Musgrove – This is an interesting spot for Musgrove, but it comes with some flaws. The Reds have the best K rate to righty pitching on the road this year at just barely above 20% and are only at 22.2% overall. Musgrove also is a bit weaker to the left side of the plate and Cincinnati can throw 4-5 at him tonight. Perhaps my largest fear is the Reds are fourth against the cutter and four of their top six against the pitch are lefties. The weak link in the arsenal for Musgrove is the cutter with a .409 wOBA allowed and it’s just about his primary pitch to lefty hitters. 

Starting Rotation 6.17 Stacking Options 

• Braves against John Gant (Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, Abraham Almonte, Ozzie Albies)
• Blue Jays against Michael King (Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez)
• Yankees against T.J. Zeuch (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Rougned Odor, Gleyber Torres)
• Rays against Justin Dunn (Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls)
• Brewers against German Marquez – This will likely be the chalk BUT we have to note how Marquez has pitched this year in Coors. It’s been 49.2 innings and he has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA, the HR/9 is only 0.36, and the xFIP is 3.54. If anything, Marquez could turn into a major pivot against Brewers chalk since this is a team that whiffs 26% of the time to righty pitching. He may not get a full write up, but I would much rather play Marquez than Brewers chalk tonight. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!