Starting Rotation 6.16

Starting Rotation 6.16

There are a ton of games in the majors today and we have split slates in front of us, six in the afternoon and eight in the evening. We’ll be going with the full breakdown in the evening and notes for the afternoon slate so let’s get to work in Starting Rotation 6.16! 

Starting Rotation 6.16 – Early Slate 

Freddy Peralta – It’s a little nerve-wracking to see him over five digits in salary, but he also can’t be ignored on a short slate. He’s still sporting a 37% K rate and that’s third among qualified pitchers. Cincinnati only whiffs 22.1% of the time but Peralta likely faces four righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta has a 43.9% K rate to the right side of the plate (and it’s not like the 30.1% rate to lefties is bad) and the xFIP to righties is 2.31. The Reds are only 20th against the slider and that pitch has a 45.4% whiff rate for Peralta on the year. 

Lucas Giolito – If what the splits tell us stays true, Giolito could be quite the play. He’s far better against the left side of the plate with a .253 wOBA, 31.4% K rate, and just a 1.06 WHIP. Righties have a .356 wOBA and you could certainly argue to play a hitter like Randy Arozarena but with Tampa striking out at a 26.3% rate, there is upside for Giolito. It’s interesting to me that both aces on this slate are not in the best spot and I don’t believe either are “must-plays” in GPP. 

Tarik Skubal – His teammate didn’t work out last night but Skubal has shown more strikeout ability and makes me feel a bit more comfortable in this spot. Since the start of May, his ERA has been under 3.35, the xFIP has been under 3.40, and the K rate has been over 34%. He’s also brought the fly ball rate down and the Royals are 20th or lower in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching this year. We don’t need a ton of strikeouts from Skubal at this salary and he could be popular as folks try to get to Coors Field. I will say Coors is priced to the point where you can use one of the aces and Skubal for your pitchers and still get a sizable chunk of that game. You just have to be willing to attack Blake Snell a bit with Rockies hitters. 

Honorable Mention – Tyler Mahle is in a good spot for strikeouts but seems rather expensive. Brady Singer is someone I wouldn’t feel great about but much like Skubal, he could pick up steam if the field spends on bats. 

Stacking Options 

Padres (Tatis, Machado, Pham, Myers)

Rockies (Cron, Story, Rodgers)

Nationals (Turner, Soto, Schwarber, Harrison)

Starting Rotation 6.16 – Main Slate

Jacob deGrom 

Play him. The End. He generated 36.9 DK points on 80 pitches the last start. We’re moving on but here’s the two GIF’s to enjoy. 

Clayton Kershaw 

Kershaw in a spot where the opposing lineup strikes out 27.6% of the time? That sounds fun to me. Looking at the splits for Kershaw would lead you to believe there’s a weakness to righty hitters since the wOBA is .304 and the HR/9 is 1.24. However, Kershaw has gotten hit for a .320 BABIP on that side and the xFIP is only 2.83. That’s not exactly something we should worry about, especially when Philly is 20th in ISO. The slider is everything to Kershaw since it has 71 of 95 strikeouts on the season along with a 43.3% whiff rate. Philly is slightly above average against it but they are also firmly in the negatives in FanGraphs ratings. 

The veteran lefty does give up a little bit more production than he used to but still has a 16.4% swinging-strike rate and a 32.3% CSW. Those rank sixth and eighth in baseball right now so even if he gives up an extra run or a bomb, he’s not going to hurt you that much. If there’s a small concern, the slider is up in the spin rate by right about 200. The whiff rate on the slider was 18.2%. I’m not trying to accuse any pitcher of anything, but we know MLB is bringing the hammer. It’s a small worry with the difference in spin rates from last year to this and the whiff rate followed. 

Bailey Ober 

With deGOAT on the hill tonight, we’re only focused on finding an SP2 because deGrom is one of those players I will lock in and let it ride. Until DK prices him appropriately, he should be locked into your lineups and I would rather lose with him than try and get cute. As far as Ober goes, he has some serious upside at this silly-low price. Since rejoining the Twins rotation, he’s thrown 51 and 73 pitches so we can expect at least 85 tonight as far as a leash goes. The past two starts have scored 12 and 16 DK points, which is more than enough to start with. When looking at his metrics, his 3.82 xFIP jumps off the page next to the 4.85 ERA. 

It’s important to understand that he has all of 13 innings in the majors, but a 26.3% K rate seems totally in line with his minor league numbers. Ober has been above 30% since the A+ level and his .389 BABIP is silly high. His 9.7% swinging-strike rate isn’t spectacular, but remember just how cheap he is. The catch is he has been atrocious to lefty hitters so far with a .610 wOBA, 6.61 xFIP, 16% K rate, and a .563 BABIP. The question remains if the five Mariners lefties can actually take advantage, but for $4,600 I’m willing to find out with some strikeout upside for Ober. 

Honorable Mention 

Zack Wheeler – It was honestly a tough decision to write up Wheeler or Kershaw. I have more of a trust factor in Kershaw but there is no denying Wheeler has been on some kind of heater. In the last seven starts, he’s pitched 51.2 innings, struck out 71 hitters, allowed eight earned runs, and walked six hitters. His ERA since the start of May is 2.08 or better and the K rate is over 34%. Realistically, he and Kershaw are interchangeable and if you go with Wheeler I won’t blame you in the least. 

Aaron Civale – I’m never a huge fan of chasing outlier performances like Civale just had, and the Orioles did just beat him up a little bit two starts ago. He’s fine, but I can’t find much of a reason to not spend $700 more to get to Wheeler. 

Stacking Options 

• Astros against Jordan Lyles (Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman)
• Twins against Justus Sheffield (Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, possibly Byron Buxton)
• There aren’t really a lot of offenses that I want to go fully in on tonight past those two. It might be more of a two or three-man stack kind of night. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!