Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.15
We have another sprawling slate of MLB action tonight and I believe we may have found a worse pitching slate than Monday evening. At least on Monday, we had one elite ace to anchor our lineups with. I’m not sure we can say the same things tonight because pitching options actually look worse on paper. There are cases to be made for some but nothing will be a smash spot in the Starting Rotation 6.15 so let’s get rolling!
Starting Rotation 6.15 – Main Targets
Julio Urias
Welcome to the slate that the scores are made up and the points don’t matter! Hopefully, someone gets that reference but Urias is going to start off a common theme for us – there’s a path for his success but I’m not head over heels for the spot. The Phillies do whiff a lot against lefty pitching at 25%, 11th in the league. They’re going to play a lot of righty hitters so one of the first things I look at for Urias is how he pitches to righty hitters. So far this season, they have a .291 wOBA, 3.42 xFIP, and a 26.1% K rate. Nothing out of those metrics is ace-level elite, but it’s certainly not bad either.
On the season, the K rate for Urias is 27.6% and he doesn’t let hitters on base for free with a 3.6% walk rate. The swinging-strike rate is up to 13.1% and the CSW is 32.6% which is sixth in the league. His four-seam has been sort of an issue this year for him with a .395 wOBA and a .326 average allowed. That is a legitimate issue but it does help that Philly is a bottom-five team against the pitch. His curve has been far better with a 30.7% whiff rate, .163 wOBA, and 34 strikeouts. To the credit of the four-seam, it does have 32 strikeouts as well and Urias uses the changeup to righties almost exclusively. With the Philly lineup stacked the way it is, he’ll use it a good bit and it does have a .157 wOBA and a 36.6% whiff rate. Both of those lead his three main pitches so Urias could be popular.
Trevor Rogers
This might be one of the most dangerous spots for Rogers on the season. St. Louis against lefty pitching currently sits third in wRC+, fourth in slugging, wOBA, OBP, and OPS, and second in ISO with only a 22.4% K rate. Not only is all of that a tough set of metrics to overcome, but they also have the fourth-highest walk rate against lefties in the league at 10.7%. Rogers does feature a better walk rate than 2020 at 8.4% and the K rate for himself is 29.8%, but there is still some regression coming for him. The xFIP is 3.36 compared to a 2.02 ERA which isn’t the largest gap ever but still notable. Rogers also has a top 12 swinging-strike rate at 15%, so let’s not pretend that he’s not a very talented pitcher who’s just in a difficult spot. Another factor that Rogers does have to fall back on is the splits because the Cards are super duper righty-heavy in their lineup. Rogers has that side of the plate held down to a .255 wOBA, 30.1% K rate, and just a 7.1% walk rate. Both the four-seam and changeup have at least a 28.1% whiff rate and a wOBA under .295, so Rogers does have some upside regardless.
Mike Minor
At first, I had some sticker shock with Minor but the more I looked I don’t really mind it. He’s overcome a rough start to the season and has the ERA down to 4.50 with a 4.13 FIP and 4.08 xFIP to compliment it. The HR/9 is a touch high at 1.46 but I believe that’s livable going against Detroit. Minor’s K rate is 26.6% and the walk rate is just under 8%, a nice duo. His strikeouts are spread over his pitches and all of them have at least a 23.1% whiff rate and at least 14 strikeouts. Minor is also generating a swinging-strike rate of 11.2% so while he’s a hair expensive, it does make some sense.
Detroit is still leading the league in K rate to lefty pitching at 29.9% and is 29th in ISO and OBP. They rank dead last in wOBA and wRC+ so this couldn’t be a much better spot for Minor either. Righty hitters are sporting a .299 wOBA with a 25.1% K rate and a 4.25 xFIP. While that’s not special, the matchup pushes Minor to be acceptable at this salary.
Luis Castillo
If there’s one thing that I will feel totally comfortable saying tonight, I’d be willing to bet big time that Castillo will be chalk. He’s been chalk in far worse situations and folks will see his outing last time and be ready to go right back to him. I can’t say that game was even that great with just 17.8 DK but here we are. He’s had such a bizarre season so far. The xFIP is 4.16 and is wildly out of whack with the 6.47 ERA and he does generate an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. That’s far less than last year’s mark of 15.4% but still respectable. One of the numbers that stick out the most is the O-contact rate. That’s the rate at which hitters make contact with pitches outside the zone and in 2020, it was 52.9% while this year has seen it balloon up to 65.8%. This may not answer everything, but the four-seam and change have seen their whiff rates drop massively.
With both sides of the plate sitting at a .347 wOBA or higher, it becomes hard to build a case from theatrics for Castillo. The only good trend is the two starts in June, where he has a 3.09 ERA, a ground ball rate of 53.6%, and a hard-hit rate of just 17.9%. Castillo is way too talented to be a 6.47 ERA pitcher and the salary works with any combo you want tonight.
Tucker Davidson
We talked on Sunday about the struggles Boston has had against lefty pitching and Watched Robbie Ray go on to strike out 10 hitters. Davidson certainly isn’t going to do that with a 20% K rate but we can still shoot for 16-20 DK points and be fairly happy. The xFIP of 4.25 is not exactly comforting but it’s not a leap to say Davidson has some regression coming from a 1.53 ERA. At the same time, the ground ball rate over 47% is nice to see as is the hard-hit rate of 30.6%. His 12.8% swinging-strike rate makes me think the K rate has room to grow and the 32.4% K rate in AAA through 20 IP backs that theory up. Across the 55 righties Davidson has faced so far, he’s held them to a .234 wOBA. We don’t love the 10.9% K rate to that side so far but that slider has a 35.6% whiff rate. There’s more upside here than the surface numbers suggest, but remember this is quite risky.
Casey Mize
With every pitch type being under 30% and Mize continuing to evolve, I’m not as concerned with pitch data in this spot as normal. We really nailed his outlook last game because we outlined he could shine but lefty hitters have given him legitimate issues. Sure enough, he was trucking to 20 DK, and then lefty Kyle Seager got him for a three-run bomb. That’s not nearly the concern against the Royals because they likely have seven righty hitters in their lineup tonight. Mize has the right side of the plate down to a .268 wOBA, 0.72 HR/9, and a 20% K rate. The Royals don’t strike out a ton at 22.5% but Mize isn’t priced to the point where you need him to go nuts. His four-seam and slider both have a whiff rate over 29% and his swinging-strike rate is over 10%. The salary still leaves room for some upside.
Starting Rotation 6.15 Honorable Mention
Taijuan Walker – The Cubs are a top 10 strikeout team so he’s well in play but the price is just okay for me. I’d rather find $400 for Mike Minor.
Starting Rotation 6.15 Stacking Options
- Padres against Chi Chi Gonzalez (legitimately any hitter you can fit)
- Giants against Corbin Martin (Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey)
- Cleveland against Matt Harvey (Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, Eddie Rosario, Josh Naylor, Cesar Hernandez)
- Blue Jays against Jordan Montgomery (Vlad Daddy, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk)
- Reds against Brett Anderson (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, any righty in the lineup)
- Mariners against J.A. Happ (Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Jacob Nottingham, Ty France, Dylan Moore)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
