Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.14
Last Monday brought us just three games total but MLB made up for it tonight with 13 games. That’s all well and good, but the pitching options are fairly dreadful tonight. It’s going to be tough sledding and my honest opinion is to make this a smaller bankroll night. I could see it ending up like Saturday’s pitching slate, which was totally out of whack. Let’s figure out who in the world we’re pitching tonight in a challenging version of Starting Rotation 6.14 to lay our foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.14 – Main Targets
Tyler Glasnow
There are plenty of nights that we can figure out other paths besides playing the top-tier chalk. I don’t see this being one of those slates since Glasnow is pretty far and away the best pitcher on this slate on paper. He ranks second in the swinging-strike rate at 17.3%, third in CSW at 33.7%, and fourth in K rate at 36.1%. The ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 2.85 and the walk rate is only 8%, which is amazing for Glasnow’s career rates. His fastball is fifth in FanGraphs ratings and combined with the curveball, they have generated 103 of 117 strikeouts.
The curve itself has only allowed a .090 wOBA and has a 56.3% whiff rate. Glasnow might not throw it a ton anymore but he wields it like Mjolnir when the strikeout is within reach. We may not sit down and set out to attack the White Sox offense as they only whiff 23.2% against righty pitching, but Glasnow cares little for that rate. He’s one of the 10 best pitchers walking the planet and Chicago is still leading the league in ground ball rate to righty pitching. With Glasnow boasting a ground ball rate of over 44%, he’s got the normal ceiling within his reach. Glasnow stickers both sides of the plate out over 35% of the time so let’s just lock and load the best arm here.
Lance Lynn
Let’s get to the portion where we make Brian angry, shall we? For all the loads of money Brian has won this year with Rays hitters, they do always have bust potential and this spot is one of those. They whiff at the fourth-highest rate to righty pitching at 26.2% and Lynn has a 27.7% K rate on his end. The Rays will typically play five lefties and that is a potential landmine for Lynn. He only whiffs lefties at a 21.3% rate and has a 4.78 xFIP, a genuine concern. The flip side of that is he’ll still face four righties and he’s owned that side of the plate with a 33.8% K rate and a .212 wOBA.
Looking for a reason that lefties don’t whiff as much, it becomes somewhat clear. On the season, Lynn has thrown a total of 79 curves and changeups. 65 of those pitches have gone to lefties and neither pitch has performed all that well. The curve especially has gotten hit for a .353 wOBA but these aren’t the primary pitches. Lynn has some risk but still checks in as one of the “safer” options on this slate. You just have to hope you get the Rays on a bust kind of day.
Alex Manoah
Can we go after the Boston lineup two days in a row? Manoah doesn’t have much of a trust factor with us yet but that’s not his fault. He only has three starts under his belt and the results have been a little bit mixed. His FIP is pretty scary at 5.31 and the 4.55 xFIP is nothing to write home about. However, I tend to doubt the 1.88 HR/9 sticks since it was around 0.50 in his (admittedly very short) minor league career. The K rate of 26.2% is what we’re after in this spot and Boston quietly whiffs 24.9% of the time against righty pitching.
I’m also happy to see Manoah sport a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and his stuff is not in question. The four-seam has been great so far with strikeouts. It’s recorded 10 of 15 and has a 40% whiff rate, impressive for one that sits at 94 MPH. Boston is typically very righty-heavy and that would help a lot if the early metrics hold up. Righties only have a .253 wOBA and a 3.77 xFIP while lefties have a 5.87 xFIP and a .370 wOBA. It’s still way early to take that as the book on Manoah, but his talent can’t be ignored on this slate.
Vladimir Gutierrez
Based on the 17 IP in the majors, Gutierrez could be a grenade waiting to explode in the SP2 spot of your lineup. The xFIP of 5.17 compared to the 2.65 ERA is a big issue, and the K rate is only 18.3% with an 11.3% walk rate as well. The good news is the ground ball rate is 47.9% and the WHIP is only 1.12 even with a high walk rate, so some things are working for Gutierrez. His four-seam and curve both have a wOBA of .240 or under and the Brewers lineup is awful against secondary pitches this year. They also have a K rate of 25.5% which is the seventh-highest in the league. We’re obviously talking about small sample sizes here, but through 35 lefties faced, Gutierrez has held them to a .189 wOBA with a 20% K rate. Milwaukee typically plays five and the pitcher spot, so the price is too low on this particular slate.
Starting Rotation 6.14 Honorable Mention
Sean Manaea – I much prefer Lynn, as the Angels lineup presents issues for Manaea. They’ve come around to a top 10 ranking in most of our offensive categories against lefty pitching. Additionally, they should roll out 6-7 righty hitters. Manaea only has a 19% K rate to that side of the plate to go with a 4.32 xFIP. The salary is really high to take on that sort of risk.
Alex Wood – This game is in San Francisco which does help but I generally do not mess with lefties against the Diamondbacks. Wood has started to slip just a bit in his past four starts and Arizona is 10th in OPS and fourth in ISO.
Starting Rotation 6.14 Stacking Options
- Coors Field – For the Rockies, lefties have the advantage against Dinelson Lamet of the Padres so I’m looking at the very affordable Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, Ramiel Tapia, Dom Nunez, and Brendan Rodgers. I would be very surprised if the Rockies are not the cash stack. Rodgers at $2,900 the way he’s been hitting is larceny. Be prepared to eat some Colorado in cash. The Padres side is the normal suspects for them but comes at a much higher expense. Somewhat oddly, Austin Gomber has been excellent in Coors with a 1.33 ERA through 20.1 IP.
- Cardinals against Braxton Garrett (Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina and they are wildly cheap as well)
- Reds against Eric Lauer (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, any righty in the lineup)
- Cubs against David Peterson (Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom, Javier Baez)
- Twins against Marco Gonzales (Byron Buxton is traveling with the Twins to Seattle, so he could be active. $4,300 is silly if he is and we can turn to Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano as well).
- Pirates against Jon Lester (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
