Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.13
It’s a Sunday in the major leagues and we have 11 games on tap today. There is likely to be a strong argument to go double ace in cash and find some bats that will work with them but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some interesting pitchers lower in salary. Let’s find out who makes the most sense for Starting Rotation 6.13 and lay those foundations for green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.13 – Main Targets
Shane Bieber
Bieber has honestly not been worth the hefty price tag a lot this year, with seven of his last 10 starts finishing under 25 DK points. The last time he saw this Seattle team they touched him up for three runs and forced him to throw 103 pitches through 4.2 IP. We’ve talked a few times about how Bieber has been easier (relatively speaking) to hit this year but the ERA/FIP/xFIP combo is all under 2.90 so it’s hard to get too upset for real life. This is fantasy and we have to consider what we pay to play Bieber and his 34.4% K rate, down almost 7% from 2020.
Bieber is still more than capable of big games and the spot should in theory be great for strikeouts. They have moved up to the fifth-worst K rate against righty pitching at 25.6% this season. The wOBA for lefties looks a touch high from an ace quality pitcher but Bieber is getting hurt by the BABIP gods with a .370 mark. The good news is the K rate is still 38.2% to that side and Seattle should feature five lefties. I believe you eat the (probable) chalk in cash, but I also believe he’s not an absolute must-play in GPP.
Carlos Rodon
The main reason I don’t believe Bieber is an absolute must is right here. Rodon has been outstanding the entire season to this point with really just two poor starts. Detroit’s K rate to lefties has come down from the early part of the season but they still lead baseball at a 29.6% rate. Rodon himself is at a 37.1% rate and a 16.2% swinging-strike rate. Those would rank around seventh and second among pitchers if he qualified. The four-seam is almost three MPH higher than last year and the slider is two MPH better.
Considering they have combined for 86 of 88 strikeouts, are both over a 29.5% whiff rate, and neither has a wOBA over .242, I’d say the velocity is making a difference. Rodon’s slider would rank seventh in FanGraphs ratings if he qualified and that pitch has been fantastic. Righty hitters only have a .260 wOBA against Rodon this year and the xFIP is only 2.94. Rodon has yet to see the Tigers lineup but I’m quite excited to play him here.
Robbie Ray
If you’ve played MLB DFS for any length of time, you know that lefty pitchers against the Sox are almost never the path to take. Normally, that has been accurate but a trend is emerging this season that points in the other direction. Not only has Boston lost Mookie Betts, but J.D. Martinez is not doing his usual work against lefties. On the season, Boston is 29th in fly ball rate (which is a huge help for Ray), 17th in OBP, 14th in slugging, 16th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. If I just gave you those ranks and didn’t tell you the team name, you wouldn’t be sweating the matchup all that much. The reputation for the Red Sox has been far better than performance so far in 2021 and Ray has been mostly lights out this year. He’s been one of the most fascinating stories of the season in my eyes.
Ray has 39 strikeouts on the four-seam which is the most of any pitch and even though it does give up some home runs, the tradeoff has worked. His xFIP is only 3.03 since the HR/FB rate is 24.2% but one of the largest shifts has been in the walk rate. Ray has never even sniffed a 5.7% walk rate in his career and the 31.2% K rate is right up there with his best numbers. He just got through being an absolute buzz saw against the White Sox lineup, which has been excellent to lefties this season. Since the HR/FB rate is so high, it’s great to see Boston not getting balls into the air against lefties and I believe Ray should be in line for another good game here.
Framber Valdez
This is yet another spot that we wouldn’t normally want a piece of, but the circumstances around Valdez are unique. Minnesota is inside the top 10 in about every metric we value offensively against lefties but they also strike out at the 10th highest rate. Not only that, the Twins are currently without Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, and Kyle Garlick. Those three hitters represent three of the top four ISO marks against lefties this season for the Twins. Buxton and Garlick are both over a .375 wOBA as well, so the lineup is not as good as the seasonal data suggests right now.
Valdez himself has only thrown 18.1 innings on the season so far but they have been dominant. The xFIP is 2.18, the ERA is 1.47, the K rate is 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.87. His curveball has been out of this world early with a .076 wOBA and a 50% whiff rate. Valdez has also held righties to just a .217 wOBA thus far and is whiffing them at a 30.6% rate with a 1.99 xFIP. With Minnesota having some holes in the lineup, I’m interested.
Tony Santillan
MLB Debut
Well, we’ve been down this road before but here we go again. Rookie debuts can go horribly wrong at any moment but the Rockies are on the road and they are a different offense. Santillan has a fastball that sits about 94 MPH but it can get up to 97-98 MPH to go with the slider as the “out” pitch. He also has a changeup but that pitch can come and go on him so I don’t expect him to utilize it very much. We have to really like the Rockies ranking 29th against the slider and they strike out over 27% on the road to righty pitching. Santillan has really found his way through 32.1 IP in the minors this year with a 34.4% K rate and a 3.53 xFIP and the former is a major weapon. The low end of salary today looks pretty tough, so Santillan checks in as low as I would go.
Starting Rotation 6.13 Honorable Mention
Domingo German – It worked out horribly for Taillon yesterday but German is better to righties with a .280 wOBA and a 25.2% K rate.
Pablo Lopez – The matchup is scary but Pablo Lopez looks like a Cy Young candidate when he’s pitching in Miami.
Starting Rotation 6.13 Stacking Options
- Cleveland against Logan Gilbert (Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario)
- Giants against Joe Ross (Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade Jr.)
- White Sox against Logan Shore (Yoan Moncada, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes)
- Brewers against Wil Crowe (Willy Adames, Luis Urias, Christian Yelich, Dan Vogelbach, Avisail Garcia)
- Blue Jays against Martin Perez (Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Semien)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
