Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.11
After a split Thursday slate that Brian was nice enough to cover for me, we are back for a full Friday night slate! It’s National Jacob deGrom Day and we will certainly be celebrating with everyone else. At the first glance, it doesn’t appear to be the slate to spend down on pitching. The largest question is where are we heading in Starting Rotation 6.11 to pair up with the best pitcher in the game so let’s get to work!
Starting Rotation 6.11 – Main Targets
Jacob deGrom
I wasn’t planning on saying much about deGrom. When he plays, we play him and we all know this by now. Then I opened the slate for the night and it’s not even a discussion. Max Scherzer got rained out Thursday night, so he will pitch tonight and DK has priced him higher than deGrom. The Mets righty leads the majors in everything we value and this would be one of the most statistically dominant seasons in baseball history if deGrom can keep this up.
He should be over $13,000 every slate, akin to Russell Westbrook at the end of this NBA season. If he was, it makes you at least calculate if it’s worth paying the price. When he’s not even the priciest option on the board? I would play deGrom ahead of Scherzer in every format, 100 times out of 100.
Brandon Woodruff
If you decide to take the path of double ace and spend down on hitters, Woodruff would certainly check that box. His 1.42 ERA isn’t terribly far off from his 2.20 FIP and 2.68 xFIP and Woodruff has a 0.47 HR/9 against the team that is ranked dead last in ISO. The 4.7% barrel rate is excellent and backs up the 26.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the fastball is ranked as the best one in the majors on FanGraphs and Pittsburgh is dead last against that pitch. Granted, he’s only throwing it about 35% of the time but the four-seam also has 57 strikeouts so far with a .160 wOBA and a 31.5% whiff rate.
The Pirates lineup is balanced with generally four of each hitter plus the pitcher spot but with Woodruff, it likely doesn’t even matter. Both sides of the plate are either at a .197 wOBA or a .191 wOBA and neither side is above a .155 average. The K rates are above 30% for both sides and the WHIP is under 0.85 as well. There’s nothing to pick on here for Woodruff and on most slates, he’d be in the running for the SP1 spot.
Shohei Ohtani
We got to see Ohtani at his best in the last start when he racked up over 30 DK points and whiffed 10 hitters across just 76 pitches. Perhaps the best facet we saw from Ohtani was zero walks because that has been one of his largest issues this season. The K rate of 34.1% has only been rivaled by a 14.8% walk rate. Ohtani hasn’t been getting hit hard with a 5.7% barrel rate and a 31% hard-hit rate and he has the looks of an elite ace pitcher aside from the high walk rate. Both the swinging-strike rate of 14.4% and the CSW of 31.2% would be inside the top 15 if Ohtani qualified. His biggest weapon continues to be the splitter, which is just a video game pitch.
The splitter is thrown more to lefties than righties at a 92-46 rate so far, which is huge when we consider the lefty-heavy Arizona lineup. Ohtani’s splitter has 41 of 60 strikeouts, a .069 wOBA, and a 63.9% whiff rate. The odd part about all those stats is the left side of the plate strikes out at a much lower rate of 27% compared to 43.3% to the righties. Lefties also carry a 4.51 xFIP so there is some concern with Ohtani, but the price remains far too low for the ceiling.
Charlie Morton
Playing Morton on the right night this season has been….maddening, to say the least. His 4.21 ERA is not totally in line with the 3.27 xFIP and the 3.64 FIP and Ground Chuck has a 27.2% K rate with a 49.1% ground ball rate. Morton is also getting hit hard only 25.5% of the time and it seems like the bad luck has really found him so far this season. His .310 BABIP would be the highest full-season rate since 2016, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is almost totally in line with the past few seasons. It’s interesting to note that of 72 total strikeouts, 61 have come from the four-seam/curve combo. Miami is sitting inside the bottom 10 against each pitch and the curve has over a 43% whiff rate.
We’ve generally not played Morton very much and on a slate this loaded up top, maybe you don’t have to. However, if you’re attempting to fit some more expensive stacks he’s cheap enough to get a strong look here. Miami is 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA and that comes with the fifth-highest K rate in the league at 25.9%. Morton is also better to righties with a .293 wOBA and the normal Marlins lineup has five plus the pitcher spot. Being in Miami doesn’t hurt either and Morton could be a fairly cheap 20+ DK points tonight.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal is absolutely the most dangerous player in the article tonight, so let’s be upfront. I don’t always love pitchers facing the same team twice in a row, the White Sox are inside the top-five in all our offensive categories, and Skubal has a very short track record of success. Five of his past six starts have been over 19 DK and we’ve seen a change in the pitch mix does wonders for him. The splitter is gone which is great because it was getting destroyed. When he eliminated that, some velocity came back into the fastball and it has a 25% whiff rate.
On the season, Skubal has a 28.3% K rate and is proving he can strike out major league hitters. Even dialing back to the start of May, his ERA is just 3.33, the wOBA is .325, and both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.80. That’s coming with a K rate over 34% and everything can start to be traced with his pitch mix change. The salary shouldn’t be this low but be prepared for the floor if picking him tonight.
Honorable Mention
Lucas Giolito – On most slates, I would be all over Giolito. He’s rattled off at least 21 DK in four straight starts and gets a Detroit offense that is still whiffing around 25% of the time. I prefer Woodruff for $300 more but I can’t complain if you went here.
Clayton Kershaw – It speaks to how loaded the elite tier is tonight that Kershaw is only in Honorable Mention. Texas strikes out 23.5% of the time and they will lose their DH on top of that. Kershaw’s recent form has been quite poor and I suspect we could get him at sub-5% tonight. If that happens, he’s worth taking shots with as a pairing with deGrom.
Starting Rotation 6.11 Stacking Options
- Astros against Matt Shoemaker (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)
- Angels against Brady Singer (Jared Walsh, Justin Upon, Max Stassi, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward)
- Dodgers against Mike Foltynewicz (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, cheaper lefties)
- Reds against Kyle Freeland (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson)
- Nationals against Anthony DeSclafani (Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber)
- Rays against Keegan Akin (Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino, Taylor Walls, Austin Meadows)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
