Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.1
The calendar has flipped to June and we have a nice-sized slate for Tuesday night. There are some very strong options on this slate but they are highly concentrated in the higher tier of salary, with one player likely to carry most of the attention. Let’s not waste much more time and jump into the Starting Rotation 6.1 to lay the foundation for green screens once again!
Starting Rotation 6.1 – Main Targets
Tyler Glasnow
I don’t believe that the Yankees lineup is going to scare anyone here, as they’ve been shut down by Tarik Skubal and Rich Hill on consecutive days. Maybe the DK pricing algorithm hasn’t received that memo. Glasnow scored 37 DK points at $10,500 and his salary CAME DOWN $700.
If they still worry anyone, that’s going to be their issue because Glasnow is a fantastic play and should still be chalky. He continues to be top-five in K rate overall (36.2%), swinging-strike rate (16.9%), and CSW (33.7%) among qualified starters. The Yanks are hovering between eighth and 12th in K rate to righty pitching and are also no higher than 14th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, or average.
Glasnow is slightly worse to righty hitters and we talked about this in the last start. The “worse” side is a 1.24 HR/9, 3.01 xFIP, a .293 wOBA, and a 35.1% K rate. That’s not nearly enough to take me away from Glasnow in this spot and the Yankees offense just hasn’t given us a ton of reason to worry. I fully expect Glasnow to give up some production, but not enough to not end up between 22-26 DK points with a much higher ceiling.
Note – I had planned on giving Aaron Nola a very strong look and full write-up, but the pricing on DK leaves me mostly off him. Perhaps he can be worth it in GPP but the salary for Glasnow combined with his ceiling is too hard to pass on. I’m not likely to stray from the upper end in salary tonight with Glasnow SO underpriced and he makes an easy combo with the next pitcher.
Chris Bassitt
I’m not sure there’s much of a better spot for Bassitt to ask for coming off a complete-game shutout of the Angels last time out. The 114 pitches aren’t a giant red flag, but it is noteworthy Bassitt normally sits around 95 or so. Still, he’s been so good this season and the Seattle offense has been a target all year long. They rank 24th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 28th in OPS, and they whiff at a 25.6% rate which is the eighth-highest. That’s going to fit like a glove with the 26.1% K rate and a 25.3% hard-hit rate.
We can talk about the Mariners rolling out five lefties, which is technically the worse side of the plate for Bassitt. Just like Glasnow, “worse” is a relative term since lefties only have a .285 wOBA, .206 average, and a K rate over 26%. The four-seam and slider do the damage as far as the strikeouts go and those pitches have 49 of 74 strikeouts on the season. The slider in particular has been excellent with a .118 wOBA and a 64.1% whiff rate. It seems a little odd that Bassitt doesn’t throw it more, but you can’t argue with the success this year.
Robbie Ray
It was a rare poor start from Ray last game out but that’s not going to deter me here. Miami does have some pop against lefty pitching as they are 15th in ISO and slugging, but they also whiff the fourth-most at 27.8% and are bottom-five against the main pitch for Ray. Not only are they bottom-five, but the two best fastball hitters in Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson also are on the IL. Without those two, Miami ranks 29th. The four-seam has the most strikeouts of any pitch for Ray at 31 of 60 and has a 22.7% whiff rate.
That pitch has also given up eight home runs so there is always going to be a danger with Ray, but the Miami K rate is too high to not chase. Ray himself sits at 28% and he’s still not walking almost anyone with a 6.1% walk rate. The 1.13 WHIP would be the best he’s ever posted so home runs tend to hurt a little less if they’re solo shots. His HR/FB rate is awfully high at 25.9% and the xFIP is only 3.39. Only Adam Duvall and Jesus Aguilar have ISO’s over .200 from the right side of the plate (and I do like them as a mini-stack) but Ray has a clear path to 20+ DK points tonight.
Alex Wood
The Angels aren’t exactly a world-beater on offense against lefty pitching and Wood has been excellent this season. His 2.94 ERA is in line with a 2.91 xFIP and you have to love the 56.8% ground ball rate. That would be second if he qualified at this juncture and guess who leads the league in ground ball rate to lefty pitching? That would indeed be the Angels are only around league average in the rest of our offensive categories.
LA might look solid against the slider at 10th but they are overall in the negative numbers and Wood’s slider is doing some work. Of the 50 strikeouts Wood has recorded, 39 have come from the slider and it’s sporting a .198 wOBA. Righty hitters have had a very difficult time with Wood this year, generating just a .256 wOBA, .584 OPS, and a whopping 30.7% K rate. LA loses the DH in this park on top of everything else and Wood checks all the boxes.
Honorable Mention
Michael Pineda – The matchup is very nice for him but I’m not crazy about the price tag in the least.
Sonny Gray – He seems capped around 85-90 pitches which isn’t terrible, but the extra $200 for Bassitt seems well-spent.
Starting Rotation 6.1 Stacking Options
- Coors Field – Both the Colorado and Texas offenses will be wildly popular.
- Twins against Bruce Zimmermann (Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Garlick, Jorge Polanco) – this stack is very underpriced.
- Giants against Andrew Heaney (Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano)
- Dodgers against John Gant (Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner)
- A’s against Marco Gonzales (Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder)
- Royals against Will Crowe (Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
