Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.7
The Friday night slate for MLB is as large as ever, but the pitching options are…fine, I guess? It’s interesting because there are quite a few spots that make sense, but I’m not sure we have a massive favorite as we’ve seen for the past few days. With there being a lot of names on the docket, let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.7 and figure out what paths we’re going to take for green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.7 – Main Targets
Carlos Rodon ($10,000 DK/$11,200 FD)
I’m trying to find a major red flag that would tell us Rodon is ready to fall apart, and we have to realize it’s only been three starts. Still, it’s hard to find the metric that makes Rodon unappealing. He’s up 2 MPH across the board and the four-seam/slider combo is doing some heavy lifting. Of the 36 strikeouts Rodon has recorded, those two pitches have 34 of them and the wOBA is under .190 for both pitches.
They also both have a whiff rate over 35% which helps explain the massive jump in K rate up to 37.9%. Rodon has a WHIP of 0.64 and even with a no-hitter under his belt, that’s impressive. The barrel rate is just 6.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 17.3%. The Royals are not a big strikeout team at 17.9% but are bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, and OBP. Rodon has held RHH to just a .193 wOBA and he stands out as the top option if you’re planning on spending up to my eyes.
Jack Flaherty ($9,400 DK/$10,200 FD)
I’m surprised to see the Rockies rank so well in pitch data but it sure seems like that’s Coors-driven. Colorado away from home against righty pitching is pretty terrible. They are 30th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, 24th in wRC+, 21st in OPS, and 27th in slugging. All of that comes with a 25% K rate and Flaherty has recovered nicely since his Opening Day disaster. His K rate is 25.9%, he’s got the HR/9 down to 0.79 after a 1.34 mark in 2020, and the hard-hit rate is under 29%.
This is coming while pitching behind in the count more often than he would like since his first strike rate has gone from 61.8% in 2020 to 53.2% this year. Both sides of the plater are under a .290 wOBA given up and Flaherty has increased his four-seam usage. Even though it has just an 18.9% whiff rate, it’s still his best pitch with a .224 wOBA given up. Both sides of the plate are under a. 285 wOBA so far and there’s not much of an argument to leave Flaharty out of the pool tonight. He way even wind up chalky.
Trevor Rogers ($8,800 DK/$10,400 FD)
We get Rogers in a repeat spot but he has had one start since facing the Brewers. The last time out he gave up a three-run bomb against Washington but that was about it, scoring 12.5 DK points on just 77 pitches. I will say I’m not crazy about the price on FD since Rogers has only been over 85 pitches once this season. Even with potentially limited pitches, Rogers has a 33.8% K rate and only a 1.06 WHIP despite his 10% walk rate. The barrel rate continues to be solid at 5.6% and the swinging-strike rate is 16.5%, which is fourth in the league behind deGrom, Glasnow, and Bieber. That’s some pretty elite company.
The natural inclination is to play righty hitters against lefty pitchers but Rogers has owned that side of the plate with a .250 wOBA, .550 OPS, and a 2.64 FIP. Additionally, the whiff rate on his four-seam is 35.3%, and has racked up 32 of 44 strikeouts. He does have some metrics that cause a little concern, but he’s also recorded at least six strikeouts in each start. With Milwaukee sporting a K rate over 29% so far against lefties, it’s not hard to see the upside for Rogers tonight.
Julio Urias ($9,700 DK/$10,000 FD)
The results have been a little inconsistent, but Urias has been dominant so far by about every metric we use. The FIP/xFIP combo of 2.81 and 3.08 totally support the 2.87 ERA and he’s got the walks under control at 4.1%. His career rate is 8.4% so that is a very good sign. His K rate has also made a big jump and his curveball is a big reason why. It’s sporting a .150 wOBA .120 average, and a 34.1% whiff rate. It also leads in strikeouts among his main three pitches with 18 of 42 so far. This could be a strong reason for the curve being so good so far –
The best curveball hitters on the Angels are Justin Upton, Jared Walsh, and Anthony Rendon (who is on the IL). That’s not exactly terrifying considering Walsh whiffs over 38% of the time to lefty pitching. Urias also has the highest-rated curve in the league at this point. It is true that the Angels whiff only 20.7% of the time but Urias walks into any slate with serious upside. I’m not sure how much stock we should put in it but Urias has a 0.86 ERA on the road through 21 IP so far this year as well.
Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
I’m going to be very interested to see what projected rostership will be here. I’m going under the assumption that Rogers is chalk at $8,800 while Gallen is going to get left to the side at $100 more coming off a bad game as Uber-chalk last time out. I fate field leaves him behind, we have to pay attention because Gallen is wildly talented. His K rate has eclipsed 30% for the first time in his career and his barrel rate is only 6% so far. He’s dropped the cutter usage by a significant amount from 25.7% last year to 9.6% this year. That’s likely a good thing as the cutter gave up a .363 wOBA in 2020 and has a .526 mark so far this season. Every other pitch is at .278 or under so his pitches are playing well right now.
Playing Gallen is absolutely GPP only since the Mets have the second-best K rate of 20.7% on the season. In addition, Gallen has given up a .330 wOBA, .718 OPS, and only a 17.9% K rate to lefties thus far. That could turn into an issue in this start but Brandon Nimmo hitting the IL doesn’t hurt Gallen in the least. This is a bet on a very talented pitcher who has a career mark of a .288 wOBA to lefties, and that should come back to Earth a bit at some point.
Charlie Morton ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD)
This could be a very nice bounce-back spot for Ground Chuck. The Phillies have the second-highest ground ball rate and the sixth-highest K rate to righty pitching. Looking at Morton’s 5.08 ERA, you might not think this is a spot he can take advantage of but the 3.67/3.45 FIP/xFIP combo tells a better story. The 16% HR/FB rate is very high for him and the 65.1% strand rate won’t stay either. Morton is rocking a 27.5% K rate and a 5.7% barrel rate to go along with a 51.7% ground ball rate. That’s 15th in the league and the 31.2% CSW is really good as well. His curve is the most-used pitch to righties and has a 45.8% whiff rate.
It’s odd to see Morton struggling to righties because that’s very out of character compared to his career numbers. With the length of Morton’s career, I’m leaning towards that evening out sooner than later and with the Phillies not hitting his main two pitches well, this could be the start to pull it off. When it happens, we need to be there because Morton has a .295 wOBA to righties in his career. Even now, the .333 mark isn’t completely awful and we can expect a return to form at some point. I really like the price point and the potential for Morton tonight.
Starting Rotation 5.7 – In Play
Blake Snell – I would rather play Rodon, and it’s still a concern to me that Snell is the highest-salaried pitcher on DK and he’s yet to get past the fifth inning. When you’re paying top dollar, you need the starter to have a pretty good shot to get deeper into the game unless he’s whiffing almost every other hitter. The 31.6% K rate is great, but Snell is suddenly having a huge walk issue with a 12.8% rate. He hasn’t been in double-digits since 2017 and the Giants walk the second-most to lefties at a 12.2% rate. They are also in the top half of the league in every offensive category we value, making this a difficult spot for Snell. Of course, it doesn’t mean he can’t get through it but he also hasn’t thrown more than 95 pitches all year. At that point, we can play Rogers in a better matchup for $1,200 less.
Sean Manaea – He’s well in play, but the path is a little murky for him. The Rays are in the top half of the league to his main two pitches and the K rate is good at 23.7%, but not spectacular. Now, Tampa should help with that because the K rate as a team to lefties is 31.3% and they are under league-average in the offensive categories we look at. The lineup is better than the stats shown to this point in theory, but it hasn’t hit the field yet. My largest issue with Manaea is the .326 wOBA to righties because the Rays will likely throw seven in their lineup. His K rate comes down to 19.8% and the xFIP is 4.19. It’s not a crooked number, but it’s clearly the worse side of the splits for him and why I may be hesitant myself. We can’t turn away from the K rate of over 31% for the Rays here, even if it’s in GPP.
Chris Flexen – “In Play” means MME style, because I wouldn’t be terribly heavy on Flexen. Texas does carry the highest K rate to righty pitching so far and Flexen isn’t a stud in that metric at just 18.4%. He’s also worse to lefties with a .353 wOBA but the BABIP is .389 and his K rate to that side is 21.6%. Of the four lefties Texas should play, three of them have K rates over 26% so there are reasons to believe that Flexen can go six strong here.
Mike Foltynewicz – Alright, I’m ready to take a shot here. Foltynewicz is using his four-seam 61% of the time and Seattle is 28th against that pitch. They are also eighth in K rate to righty pitching and Folty is at 22.3% for his K rate. We obviously don’t love the 2.43 HR/9 or the 42.4% fly-ball rate, but he’s cheap enough to take a chance on.
Starting Rotation 5.7 – Out of Play
Eduardo Rodriguez – I’m really on the fence here, because I don’t want to overreact to one tough start. E-Rod has been excellent for the most part this year, but Baltimore has come around a bit to lefty pitching. They are at least 12th in slugging, OPS, and wOBA but they do strike out 24.2% of the time. It also does help E-Rod that Baltimore is bottom-five against the changeup and that’s actually the most-used pitch for Rodriguez. The xFIP of 2.80 says the 4.18 ERA is likely a little high and his K rate of 27.9% is a career-high. Baltimore could roll out seven righties and that does pose a small issue, as E-Rod has yielded a .334 wOBA, .788 OPS, and a 2.14 HR/9 to that side of the plate. I’m likely to go other options around him in salary unless he comes in as chalk (which I doubt).
Jose Urquidy – The K rate is a large issue here as it is only 19.7% and his xFIP is 4.93 compared to a 3.71 ERA. It’s not going to help him that Toronto could roll out seven righty hitters and Urquidy has a .347 wOBA, .807 OPS, and a 16.7% K rate with a 5.69 xFIP. Toronto is 15th in wOBA, wRC+, and only whiffs 23.3% of the time.
Zach Eflin – Much like Urquidy, if I’m going to challenge a good offense on a large slate, I want a reward. The 21.7% K rate that Eflin sports makes that hard to imagine right off the hop, and it will be the third start for Eflin against the Braves this season. One start, he scored 26.8 DK, and the second one he only scored 4.7 so the range of outcomes appears wide. Eflin is better to the right side of the plate, which helps at a .257 wOBA and 25.8% K rate. Still, I can’t quite pull the trigger but that’s just me.
Zach Plesac – He’s using a four-seam almost 40% of the time and Cincy is the top team in the league against that pitch, which is an issue. Also of concern is the K rate is under 18% for Plesac although he is generating a 24.8% hard-hit rate and a 51.5% ground ball rate. With Plesac giving up a 2.12 HR/9 to righties and facing hitters like Nicholas Castellanos is not going to be an easy task for him. The hope for Plesac and his path to success is the Reds struggle to righties on the road. They are bottom-three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. I just want to use pitchers with a higher K rate in the salary range.
Jameson Taillon – I’m not buying into the last game for Taillon since it came against the Tigers. The Yankees are justifiably being careful with the righty, as he’s not pitched more than five innings and he’s not thrown more than 84 pitches. He’s likely a bit better than the 5.24 ERA shows since he has a 3.86 xFIP but the 2.01 HR/9 is concerning. The 53.3% fly-ball rate isn’t comforting either and lefties are hammering him so far. They have a .404 wOBA, .939 OPS, and a 3.00 HR/9. Now, that’s coming with a .455 BABIP but the FIP is also 5.21 so there are enough issues with the profile that I would pass at the salary.
David Peterson – The Arizona offense is first in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging so far this season. While Peterson carries a 29% K rate and will be interesting in some spots, this is not one of them for me.
Anthony DeSclafani – The only two great starts for him so far have been against the Rockies in San Francisco, so this spot is tough to get behind. With San Diego sporting the second-best K rate to righty pitching, I’m not sure there’s a ton of upside. Does 15 DK really do much for you tonight?
Griffin Canning – I’m interested in seeing how he does tonight since he’s been using the slider more and it had a .290 wOBA, 15 strikeouts, and 47.8% whiff rate. His HR/FB rate is 28.8% which is absurd and helps explain the 3.42 xFIP compared to the 6.20 ERA. The issues are A. it’s the Dodgers lineup that can explode any game and B. they are 12th against the slider. Maybe another night we can use Canning and his 29.5% K rate.
Ross Stripling – He’s sporting a 43.9% fly-ball rate, a 7.8% swinging-strike rate, 1.74 WHIP, and Houston has the best K rate in baseball to righties.
Rich Hill – He’s been a wild ride so far and has three starts of fewer than 4.2 IP. That alone is an issue, and even Oakland being 22nd against his curve doesn’t do enough to put him in play. They are second in ISO, ninth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+. Righties have a 2.18 HR/9 against Hill this season. I know that Hill dominated them once this year, but I’m betting he can’t do it again.
Wade Miley – I’m not exactly running to stack Cleveland, but Miley has a 54.9% ground ball rate and could frustrate this offense. The main issue is he only has a 17.6% K rate and a strand rate over 80%.
Patrick Corbin – I’m not thinking a 2.70 HR/9, 5.68 xFIP, and a 16.5% K rate will survive in New York. Oh, Corbin has gotten annihilated by righties for a .462 wOBA, 1.098 OPS, 3.63 HR/9, and an 8.93 FIP. The Bronx Bombers will justifiably be popular.
Matt Harvey – He’s been fine but we need better than fine against Boston. His first two starts against them were worth 10 and eight DK points, and I’m not sure we should expect different tonight.
Matt Shoemaker – I think the way to get to expensive bats (Yankees) and at least one high-salary pitcher is the Detroit Tigers. They strike out like that’s what they get paid for, but Shoemaker is giving up a .370 average, 1.151 OPS, .479 wOBA, 4.66 HR/9, and a 9.62 FIP to the left side. The Tigers should have at least five in the lineup tonight, and the majority are under $4,000 on DK.
Austin Gomber – I can’t get to a pitcher that has a 5.09 xFIP and a 5.5% K-BB rate. He’s getting roughed up by righties with a .356 wOBA and the Cardinals are top-six in all of our offensive categories.
Tarik Skubal – We’re looking at a 6.83 xFIP, 3.27 HR/9, and a 3.8% K-BB rate. Righties have just worked him over at a 4.50 HR/9 and just a 12.5% K rate. Minnesota has the tools to be an elite offense against lefties and could put out eight RHH.
Brad Keller – He’s gotten waxed with a 5.52 xFIP, 6.01 FIP, and both sides of the plate have a wOBA of at least .393.
Brent Suter – I almost put Suter in play, but this will be his first start of the season and he’s not thrown more than 37 pitches yet. I would guess he has about 50-60 tonight and the metrics don’t look poor with a 3.63 xFIP, 22.4% K rate, and a 54.3% ground ball rate. Let’s see if we get a pitch count before completely taking him off the table.
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