Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.6
Thursday afternoon brings us a very nice eight-game slate with some interesting pitching options up top and some not-so-interesting options after that. It’s a fairly top-heavy slate at the first pass, so let’s see if that holds up in the Starting Rotation 5.6 and lay our foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.6 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DK/$12,300 FD)
Astros Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 9th SL – 3rd CB – 23rd CH – 14th
Just when you thought Cole was dominant enough, he’s adding to his arsenal. I saw this on Twitter when Corey Kluber dominated the Tigers earlier in the week, but the Yankees are making an effort to have their pitchers throw a changeup if it works for them. Kluber is doing the same thing but Cole is throwing it a career-high 15.4%. His previous his was 10.5% in 2017 and last season it was only at 5.6%. Why is this important? Well, his change has been nasty. Only John (Mr. No Hitter) Means has a higher rated changeup via FanGraphs this year. It has generated 14 strikeouts, yielded a .050 wOBA, and sports a 47.1% whiff rate. I mean, sometimes facing a pitcher just isn’t fair –
The other pitches for Cole are the normal suspects and his four-seam/slider combo has 43 strikeouts and neither pitch has given up anything over a .212 wOBA to this point. His 44.3% K rate isn’t that far behind Jacob deGrom for the number one spot and his HR/9 went from a 1.73 mark in 2020 to 0.24 so far this year. All of this is to say that the Astros are not the easiest matchup, it doesn’t matter with the outstanding metrics Cole displays. If you want the narrative angle, this is the first time Cole has faced Houston after leaving in free agency. For those who may forget, Cole was not used when Houston lost in Game 7 to Washington in the World Series. He then wore a Scott Boras hat in the postgame and tweeted a goodbye message to Houston almost immediately. Sure, the man secured the bag but I’m not sure Houston ended on the best note for him. I don’t have much use for narratives often but call this a hunch that Cole wants to absolutely show out today.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,300 DK/$10,100 FD)
I’m not sure Woodruff gets the love he should with Corbin Burnes being in his rotation, but he’s having a phenomenal year of his own. The 1.80 ERA is basically backed up by a 2.14 FIP and a 2.99 xFIP, along with a stout 30.1% K rate. His WHIP is only 0.80 in part due to a walk rate under 7%. Nobody can get a barrel on him at just 2.4% so far and the fly ball rate is also under 30%. That’s the kind of top-notch profile we look for and then we add in the Philly is a top 10 team in K rate to righty pitching.
Technically, he is worse to righty hitters but we’re talking about a .216 wOBA, 28.8% K rate, and a 2.54 FIP. If that’s the poor end of your splits, I can’t say I’m worried about the opposing lineup all that much. What I really like here is that Woodruff’s four-seam is the strikeout pitch, with 26 of 40 so far. He’s only allowed a .177 wOBA on it so far and it’s the most-used pitch to righty hitters. With Philly typically sporting a righty-heavy lineup and being bottom-five against fastballs, it’s not hard to see why double ace is appealing yet again.
Danny Duffy ($8,800 DK/$10,700 FD)
It’s impossible not to feel like Duffy is going to bite us at these salaries at some point. Truthfully, I’d play Woodruff ahead of Duffy on FD almost every single time but my word has Duffy been fantastic so far. The xFIP of 3.71 would be the largest concern since it’s a full 3.00 runs higher than the ERA but I don’t think the expectation is for Duffy to sit at a 0.60 ERA all year. The K rate is sustainable at 28.8% in my eyes as it’s not a giant leap from last season’s 23.6%. His swinging-strike rate has never been better at 13.9% and he’s leaned more into his four-seam/slider combo than last season. That’s working as they have 27 of his 30 strikeouts to this point. The velocity for the four-seam is up almost 2 MPH and that’s helped generate a 28.1% whiff rate compared to 21.4% in 2020. He’s also touching 96, just ask Bob Ross –
Cleveland continues to be a fairly pop-gun offense, especially to lefties. The whiff rate is only 19.7% but they are no higher than 23rd in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OBP, average, and slugging. They do climb to 14th in ISO but that’s not something to hold back Duffy. He’s been lights out to righty hitters with a .203 wOBA, .427 OPS, and a 28.9% K rate. Cleveland is projected to have eight RHH in their lineups and by the metrics, it’s hard to ignore Duffy.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,400 DK/$8,600 FD)
You may as well get used to seeing pitchers against the Tigers because the strikeout is king in MLB DFS. Detroit is striking out at obscene rates regardless of which hand the pitcher throws with. They have a monster lead in K rate to lefties and are only 1% behind the Rangers for the lead to righties. The K rate of 22.4% for Eovaldi is accentuated by the opposition, and the pitch data certainly looks like it’ll be an advantage for him as well. Eovaldi sports a 4% barrel rate and a 27% fly-ball rate, excellent combos to use him against a poor offense.
His splits are about dead even as well, so there’s not really a lineup from Detroit that takes me off this play. What’s interesting is he’s really cut back on the cutter usage. That’s not a bad thing because it’s not exactly a big strikeout pitch, though it does have seven so far. It’s also giving up a wOBA of .320 so it doesn’t need to be heavily utilized. There are not many pitchers I won’t use against the Tigers.
Starting Rotation 5.6 – In Play
Zack Wheeler – Is Wheeler in play with a 26.6% K rate and a 0.93 HR/9? Absolutely. Am I going to use him all that much with Woodruff sitting right there? Well, that’s a different story. Look, the Brew Crew are still whiffing at a top-four rate of 27.2% and Wheeler’s 12% swinging-strike rate is the best he’s ever put up. Still, Woodruff is cheaper on DK. That’s going to play with my head. The results for Wheeler have been a roller coaster on top of that. He’s had two starts with over 35 DK points and four with under 14.5. Wheeler has the four-seam up to 97.3 MPH and has 16 strikeouts with it, the most of his repertoire. It’s also sporting a .316 wOBA and the Brewers are fourth against fastballs on the season.
Lance McCullers – I’m not sure I have the guts to chase this play but there’s a route via the metrics that it does make sense. His curve and slider are the strikeout pitches, with 21 of 30 so far. They make up about 50% of his arsenal and New York is 18th and 15th against those pitches, respectively. Now, he throws the curve to lefties and the slider to righties. There is a large concern that he hasn’t thrown the curve to right-handers, as that is his best weapon. Well, maybe because the slider is filth –
Not using the curve to righties is the largest reason why I’ll likely skip McCullers. He also has a 27.3% K rate which is high enough to see some ceiling and the ground ball rate is 53.2, which is great to see in New York. That would also be 10th in the league if he qualified. Lastly, the RHH are the better side of the splits for him. They have a .405 OPS, .220 wOBA, and a 255% K rate. The best metric against the righties is the 63.3% ground ball rate. I can’t quite kick him out of the pool on a shorter slate but he is very scary.
Taijuan Walker – It’s not exactly the perfect match, but Walker could get it done for DFS at this salary. His walk rate is a big issue at 13.3% but the Cardinals walk only 7.8% of the time, 24th in the league. They also have a 24.8% K rate which is 11th so it helps hide some of Walker’s weaker points. He only has a 23.9% K rate, which isn’t great with a walk rate that high. St. Louis is also 14th in ground ball rate, which might help mitigate Walker’s 34.8% ground ball rate. Walker is better against righties, and the Cards should have a total of seven including the pitcher spot. He’s only giving up a .256 wOBA, .567 OPS, and a 25% K rate. The four-seam/slider is his best combo with 20 strikeouts between them and neither pitch has a wOBA over .240. Really, his largest issue is the sinker because it has all of three strikeouts and is yielding a .449 wOBA. The Cards are average to four-seams and sliders, so Walker is in play. Just ditch the sinker and lean into the 94 MPH fastball.
Triston McKenzie – This is ONLY if you MME, and not much exposure at that. I just can’t in good faith let McKenzie go at this salary without looking at him. Yes, he’s been largely a disaster this year with a 6.38/5.09 FIP/xFIP combo but the K rate is over 31% and the swinging-strike rate is 14.2%, ups from last year. In fairness, the walk rate is also up to over 21% so that looms large. His slider and curve make up about 28% of his pitches and they’ve yet to yield a hit and both have a whiff rate of at least 50%. The four-seam has been the issue with a .523 slug, .421 wOBA, and down 1 MPH in velocity. Last year, he had a .328 slug and a .299 wOBA on that pitch. Kansas City is seventh against the fastball, which is worrisome. I do like he’s got RHH down at a .282 wOBA and a 39.1% K rate, so perhaps this is a get-right spot for the young man. He’s too talented to continue down this route.
Starting Rotation 5.6 – Out of Play
Hyun Jin Ryu – If we didn’t have better options, I might be more inclined to play Ryu here. The glute injury isn’t a major concern but the matchup certainly is. Oakland can get after lefty pitchers and Ryu has seen the K rate drop down to 23.4%, although in fairness the 13.3% swinging-strike rate and the 32.2% CSW are both career highs. Ryu has been just alright to righties with a .322 wOBA and an OPS of .758. I’d rather go elsewhere today.
Michael Pineda – Sure, the Rangers lead the league in K rate but the scary hitters tend to be on the left side and Pineda struggles with that side. They’ve gotten to him for a .313 wOBA, .720+ OPS, 2.31 HR/9, and a 5.25/4.97 FIP/xFIP combo. That’s not what I’m chasing today, although I admit it wouldn’t shock me if Pineda had more than six strikeouts.
Drew Smyly – The Nationals can hammer lefties and they stand out as one of, if not the best stacks on the slate. Smyly has a 4.26 HR/9, 8.05 ERA, 8.48 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, a 54.1% fly-ball rate, and a hard-hit rate approaching 40%. Hello Washington Nationals.
John Gant – He’s getting worked by lefties with a .357 wOBA, .782 OPS, and a 6.09 xFIP. The Mets have been tilting this year but I have zero interest in Gant for the Starting Rotation 5.6.
Spencer Turnbull – He has a toolkit that could frustrate Boston, but the 17.9% K rate really isn’t worth the risk. What worries me about playing Boston is the 51.1% ground ball rate for Turnbull and the 18.4% hard-hit rate. Having said those things, his 6.9% (yeeeeeesh) K rate to righties and 5.28 xFIP will likely come back to bite him against a good Boston offense.
Jon Lester – Brian is going to HATE this, but I have to say it.
whispers, barely audible
The Braves have been absolute trash to lefties this season.
There, I said it. They got no-hit by the husk of Madison Bumgarner, guys. Come. On. As a team, they have the sixth-highest K rate (irrelevant with Lester) and sit 29th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The highest rank is ISO, but they are only 20th in that metric. Through his first five IP, Lester had a 4.98 xFIP and 5.75 xERA even though he didn’t give up a run. That’s absolutely the Lester line, and I am NOT playing him. I’m just saying that while I will have an Atlanta stack because I play Picks and Pivots, this has Lester getting the last laugh on us written all over it. Man, I want to be wrong here.
Mike Fiers – He’s only pitched six innings this year, but the last two years his K rate has been 16.7%, 14.4%, and then 12% in his first start. I want much higher potential if I pick on the Blue Jays lineup. Fiers also emerged from that first start with a FIP over 7.00 and a 15% barrel rate.
Jordan Lyles – He’s up to a 2.57 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 11.5% barrel rate, and just an 18% K rate. The fly ball rate and hard-hit rate are both over 40% which is a very poor combo. Lastly, righties have a .451 wOBA, 1.091 OPS, .343 average, and a massive 3.71 HR/9.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
