Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.5
We have another double-digit slate ahead of us with 11 games on the docket and another evening where there is a clear-cut stud to anchor our cash lineups with. Hopefully, we get to play him tonight. Tuesday saw Jacob deGrom scratched with right lat tightness, something we certainly don’t want to see. Let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 5.5 and figure out who we want to play after the ace to round out our lineups for green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.5 – Main Targets
Shane Bieber ($10,400 DK/$12,200 FD)
With mortal pitchers, the data would be a concern since the Royals are 12th or better against two pitchers. That’s not something I sweat with pitchers like Bieber. He is fourth in K rate at 39.7% and the Royals whiff 22.5% of the time. That’s top-five but again, it’s Bieber so I’m not nearly as worried about it. The righty is difficult to square up with a 25.8% hard-hit rate and the swinging-strike rate of 19.1% is third in the majors. The slider has been his best-rated pitch as it is second in the league in FanGraphs ratings and we can understand why, and it doesn’t matter which side of the plate you’re on –
Bieber has really increased the usage this season from 11% last year and it has also given up the lowest average, slug, and wOBA so far with a 54.3% whiff rate. That’s the highest mark of his three main pitches and it’s interesting to see Whit Merrifield is the worst hitter against the slider on the Royals. The top three are Carlos Santana, Nicky Lopez, and Salvador Perez. With Bieber dominating the right side of the plate with a .207 wOBA, .159 average, and a 2.08 FIP those concerns really lessen. To my eyes, there really isn’t a strong argument he’s not the best option on the slate.
Yu Darvish ($10,200 DK/$11,800 FD)
Darvish throws a veritable cornucopia of pitches, so the data as far as the slider and cutter don’t give me much pause in pitching him. Even the Pitching Ninja can’t name some of his pitches (I’d just label this as “evil” myself) –
After Opening Day, Darvish has been as sharp as ever and virtually everything is in line with last season. The xFIP at 3.53 compared to the ERA at 2.13 says he might have a little recession but it’s nothing that’s too scary. That’s especially true when the K rate is 32.9%, the WHIP is 0.89, and the opponent whiffs 23.2% of the time. My Buccos are also no higher than 20th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far this season (with little reason to expect it to get better).
The good news is even if you’re slightly worried about the slider, Darvish has the highest-rated one in the majors. It leads his strikeout totals with 12 and he’s allowed exactly one hit off it across 23 batted ball events. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .275 and both sides are striking out over 30% of the time. Just like last night, it’s pretty easy to build a strong case for double aces in any format.
Martin Perez ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD)
Perez has had a relatively shaky year but did just prove he can take advantage of a good matchup. They don’t get better for lefty pitching than the Detroit Tigers. They whiff at an absurd 37.7% rate so far this season to lefty pitching. When they make contact, it’s not going well then either and that’s being kind. They are dead last in every single offensive category we value. This is the best matchup in baseball, even if a pitcher like Perez isn’t always on our radar. He’s suffering through a .348 BABIP right now but the K rate is 20.8% which would be the first time he’s been over 20% in his career. Perez isn’t getting hit hard either with a 4.3% barrel rate and a 21.4% hard-hit rate. The splits are very even across the board and Perez should be able to get through six innings with 5-6 strikeouts. It’s hard not to attack the Tigers anytime they face a southpaw.
Brady Singer ($5,500 DK)
I’m at a loss here because Singer is wildly cheap and I can’t particularly understand why. Sure, the last start resulted in 0.9 DK points but he left that one after two innings with a slight injury. There seem to be no concerns about anything tonight, and the price went from $7,000 to $5,500. In the previous three starts, Singer accumulated 18 innings, gave up two earned runs, and racked up 20 strikeouts.
That fits with his 26.3% K rate, 51.6% ground ball rate, and a 27.4% hard-hit rate. The FIP/xFIP combo are both under 3.60, while he’s generating a 9.2% swinging-strike rate. There is some small concern that lefties hit him better with a .293 wOBA but it’s not like that mark is all that bad. Cleveland is striking out a ton against righties at 25.6%, eighth-most in baseball. Singer should not be this cheap and if you decide to not go with the double ace approach, he could be an elite salary-saver.
J.T. Brubaker ($6,900 DK/$7,500 FD)
This is likely only in very deep GPP, but Brubaker has started the year extremely well. The xFIP of 3.24 isn’t terribly far off the 2.63 ERA and even the 3.91 FIP isn’t poor. The Padres don’t strike out much at 21.3% and that is the second-best mark but Brubaker is over 26% himself. When he’s not striking hitters out, the ground ball rate is 54.2% and the Padres have the fifth-highest ground ball rate in baseball to righty pitching. This is from 2020, but you can get an idea of what that slider does when it’s working –
One aspect that has been very impressive so far is the 13.6% swinging-strike rate, which I did not expect. There is a fair concern with the .374 wOBA and .869 OPS to righty hitting, especially with Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers likely in the lineup. Even then, it feels like the .324 BABIP to the side is high and Brubaker has face two righty-heavy lineups in his last two starts.
Starting Rotation 5.5 – In Play
Walker Buehler – This portion and the next pitcher were stolen from previous articles. With the scheduling issues in Chicago, both starters have already been written up.
Buehler is always in play and he’s always one of my least favorites to actually use. With Bieber and Darvish on the mound, he will not be a primary target for me. I can’t explain it but he always burns me no matter my decision. He’s really talented, with a 25.4% K rate and both the FIP/xFIP are 3.30 or under. The barrel rate isn’t exceptional at over 12% but the Cubs are whiffing almost 29% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. They should also have five RHH and the pitcher’s spot, and Buehler is holding righties to a .200 wOBA and .194 average. Lefties are getting him for a .371 wOBA and a 2.08 HR/9. I’m likely to stay clear of this spot and perhaps use a Cubs lefty as a one-off, like Anthony Rizzo.
Adbert Alzolay – On paper, I’d likely pass but he could be breaking out to some extent. Azlolay has had a solid 21 IP so far with a 3.78/3.51 FIP/xFIP combo. The K rate is very interesting at 28.4% with a 0.90 WHIP, not to mention a hard-hit rate under 28% and a swinging-strike rate of 14.3%. He’s using the slider 47.2% of the time which is a massive jump from 2020. It was only thrown 6.7% of the time last year but in 2021, it has 17 of 23 strikeouts, a .146 wOBA, and a 40.5% whiff rate. The Dodgers are not ideal, but I’m leaving Azlolay on the table.
Freddy Peralta – When you’re one of five pitchers who has a K rate over 40%, you’re going to be in play every single slate. Philly is 26th against the fastball and 19th against the slider, which Peralta throws about 90% of the time. They also have a top 10 K rate to righty pitching, so there is upside for Peralta. The 12.5% walk rate is super high but he’s got the WHIP right at 1.00 and the hard-hit rate under 30%. With a 14.7% swinging-strike rate, he can make up for some mistakes but the fear is always he’s too wild to have a big game. The 51.8% K rate to righty pitching could really sync up well against the Phillies since they normally have four. The lefties like Brad Miller and Odubel Herrera aren’t exactly reasons to avoid Peralta.
Johan Oviedo
*NOTE* Oviedo is scheduled to start Game 2 of the double-header and I’m still fine using pitchers in the short seven inning games.
The 23-year old has been impressive so far through just 9.2 IP, with a 29.7% K rate, a 3.42 FIP/3.17 xFIP combo, and a 0.93 WHIP. The ground ball rate is 50% and the hard-hit rate is 27.3%, a great thing to see with strikeout upside. The swinging-strike rate is an eye-popping 17.9% which would be fourth in the majors over a larger sample size. The righty sits at 96 MPH on his fastball but the strikeout star to this point is the slider with six of 11 strikeouts. It possesses a 54.2% whiff rate and just a .225 wOBA. The Mets are just 20th against that pitch and Oviedo whiffs both sides of the plate at least 27.3%. Color me intrigued.
Andrew Heaney – He did us wrong last time out but that doesn’t change the matchup for this spot. Tampa is over 31% in the K rate to lefty pitching, which speaks to the upside for Heaney. The Rays are average against the curveball and Heaney has a 43.8% whiff rate on the said pitch. Heaney has a 3.00 xFIP and 3.69 FIP, which sport a big gap between the 5.25 ERA. The K rate is a massive 35.1% and that is 10th in the league among starters with at least 20 IP. There’s really no reason why we can’t use Heaney tonight, even if there is never that trust factor with him.
Starting Rotation 5.5 – Out of Play
Chris Bassitt – The game log watcher might be tempted as he’s exceeded 21 DK for three straight starts. However, the Tigers, Orioles, and Rays aren’t exactly a gauntlet for opposing pitchers. Bassitt is a totally solid pitcher with a 24.4% K rate and 45.8% ground ball rate but I’m not in love with the price. The 12.1% swinging-strike rate promises potential as well, but perhaps we wait until he faces a better matchup.
Jordan Montgomery – It’s funny to see his price stay relatively stagnant after we talked about Singer. Montgomery has a 22% K rate but the FIP of 4.87 isn’t totally encouraging. Houston is slightly above average against the main pitch for Montgomery in the changeup and he’s giving up a .340 wOBA, .791 OPS, and a 2.25 HR/9 to the right side of the plate.
Marcus Stroman – I’m out at this price tag. I love Stro as a pitcher but when the absolute ceiling strikeout game (eight last time out) generates 24.9 DK, that’s not exactly great. Even if Stroman keeps up the 20.4% K rate he has going right now, the salary is high. I’m not chasing a ceiling game from a ground ball pitcher.
Luis Garcia – I generally won’t run to play pitchers with under 35 IP in the majors in Yankee Stadium, as the Yanks are heating up. To his credit, the wOBA to RHH is just .223 but the fly ball of 55.2% is scary as all get out. The 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 24.7% K rate leave me interested….in a different spot.
Ryan Yarbrough – I don’t have anything all that bad to say about Yarbrough as he carries a 4.32 xFIP and 18.1% K rate. We talked last night about why the Angels aren’t that scary of a matchup to lefties but there’s not much to sink our teeth into here. I’d rather just slide down further in salary.
Chase Anderson – Milwaukee is whiffing at a top 10 rate to lefties, but they also are top-eight in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and OBP. The K rate is under 20% while the walk rate is over 10% and I can’t find much reason to go here. It’s not like he’s a ground ball machine at 36.4% either.
Robbie Ray – I’d love to play him as he’s been much better this season but it’s just too scary. The ERA is 2.78 but the FIP and the xFIP are both over 4.30 and he’s sporting a strand rate of 93.5%. The K rate is under 22% which is a fairly big shift from him. His slider has seen a major shift as it had 33 strikeouts last year and just one this year. His four-seam has gained 2 MPH on it and is generating a .260 wOBA but only a 22% whiff rate. I’m not exactly buy-in the upside against the A’s with more limited K upside than we’re used to with Ray.
Erick Fedde – I’m not playing him but I’m approaching the Braves with some slight caution. His cutter has been a good weapon for him and he’s using it almost 29% of the time. On 17 BBE, it’s only given up a .110 wOBA and a .125 slug. It’s the fourth-ranked cutter in the majors right now. His career K rate is 16.4% but this season it’s 25.8%, which is wildly out of character. Fedde has also been better to RHH this year with a .260 wOBA and a 30.6% K rate. It’s interesting to note that he has distinct home/road splits. His IP have been almost evenly split but through 116 at home, the ERA is 5.97. On the road throughout 100.1 IP, the EA is 3.95.
Max Fried – There has been a three-week layoff due to injury and Fried is sporting a 6.29 FIP and 4.19 xFIP. The HR/9 is 2.45 and the ground ball rate went from 53% last year to 41.5% this year in 11 IP. I truly believe we need to see something before we can trot him out there, especially against a Nationals lineup that can smack lefties.
Casey Mize – The FIP is 5.51, the K rate is under 18%, the barrel rate is 11%, and both sides are over a .310 wOBA. Lefties are crushing him for a .423 mark, a .992 OP, and a 2.38 HR/9. I’m not rolling him out against the Red Sox.
Hyeon-Jong Yang – We have a 33-year old pitcher with only 8.2 IP under his belt. So far, the K rate is 15.2% but the hard-hit rate is under 15%. He’s held 24 righties faced to a .196 wOBA but we’re not sure if he can throw more than 75 pitches and the Twins can maul lefty pitchers.
Lewis Thorpe – Another lefty with virtually no experience, Thorpe has 49 IP with a 5.88 ERA. The xFIP is 4.91 so I don’t think he’s been totally unlucky either. Sure, the Rangers represent a solid matchup for lefty pitchers but Thorpe has both sides of the plate over a .380 wOBA across his career.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
