Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.31
We have a nine-game slate this afternoon and it looks like a slate that we’re going to need to spend up on pitching. There is one player that I believe we can take chances with but overall, the bottom rung in salary doesn’t offer much. It certainly doesn’t offer a Tarik Skubal today so this could be a challenge to fit in bigger name bats. We’ll discuss some stacks as always in the Starting Rotation 5.31 but before that, let’s talk about who we need to target on the mound!
Starting Rotation 5.31 – Main Targets
Carlos Rodon
Rodon has taken on Cleveland twice before and has racked up a total of 72.2 DK points and has a no-hitter, so things have gone well for him. Overall, Rodon has turned in 48.2 innings this season that has been nothing short of dominant. The 1.29 ERA isn’t here to stay but the FIP/xFIP is 2.01 and 2.66 so there’s not massive regression waiting for him. Among pitchers who have at least 40 innings pitched, Rodon is third in K rate at 38.5% and fifth in the swinging-strike rate at 16.9%. Opposing hitters are not getting good swings with a 24.7% hard-hit rate and a 5.1% barrel rate.
Both sides of the plate are under a .230 wOBA and if Cleveland decides to play any lefties, they could be in some trouble. Lefties have a 42.9% K rate and a 0.42 FIP. The four-seam/slider combo has been electric with additional velocity from last season and has 70 strikeouts on the season. The slider is only sixth in FanGraphs ratings but has a .109 wOBA, 48.3% whiff rate, and has given up one (1) single in 52 at-bats. With Cleveland ranking 25th in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, Rodon has one of the easiest paths to success today.
Corbin Burnes
When your offense is the lowest-ranked team against the cutter, Corbin Burnes is about the last pitcher you want to see. His cutter is the highest-rated cutter in baseball, and it’s not exactly a secret. Through 53 BBE, it has yielded a .197 wOBA, .154 average, a 34% whiff rate, and 39 of 74 strikeouts. Overall, Burnes is one of only two pitchers that is over 42% for his K rate and the FIP/xFIP combo is an astounding 1.07 and 1.66. By those metrics, the 2.33 ERA is actually too high and could go down a little bit. The hard-hit rate is 20.9% and the ground ball rate is 52.7%, inside the top 15 in the league.
Burnes is coming off a bit of a sub-par start but that was against the Padres and these are two different offenses. Detroit is starting to evolve into a lineup that isn’t a flow chart target anymore. In May, the Tigers are 15th in wOBA, wRC+, they are down to eighth in K rate, and are 11th in OBP. That’s an issue for another day as Burnes is one of the five-to-eight best pitchers in baseball and he’s under $10,000 on DK.
Rich Hill
I don’t expect Rich Hill to throw another 13 strikeouts tonight but he did just get the Yanks for 32.8 DK points. Hill has defied his age and is rocking a 3.63 ERA with a 3.75 xFIP and has the home run issues largely under control at a 1.21 HR/9 with a 27.9% K rate. His WHIP of 1.02 is the best since 2016 for the veteran and the swinging-strike rate of 12.1% is the best since 2011. His curveball has been the biggest reason as it’s rated as the fifth-best curve in the majors at this juncture. No, I did not think I’d be typing that in the year 2021 as the calendar gets ready to turn to June. It’s only allowed a .230 wOBA and has 19 strikeouts on the season.
While Hill has given up all seven bombs to the right side of the plate, his 3.54 xFIP is not that scary at all and the K rate stays strong at 27.1%. We saw some of the upside in his earlier start and the Yankee offense is hurt and hasn’t been near what we thought in the spring. They remain below average in ISO, OPS, and wOBA this year while striking out 23.7% of the time. The salary is on the high side but Hill is having a legitimately good season thus far.
Wade Miley
Miley is not typically a member of this article but this slate is pretty poor overall for pitching. My intention as of Sunday night is to be very heavy on the Burnes/Rodon combo and work around the limitations with cheaper bats. However, if you’re looking for the riskier route and want the big bats, Miley could lead you down that path. The cutter data looks scary, but Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins carry the majority of that rating. While Hoskins is a big threat with a wOBA over .430 and a .271 ISO, Herrera is at a .122 ISO and is a little less worrisome.
Miley’s K rate is a paltry 18.9% but Philly is third in K rate to lefty pitching at 30.5%. The 59.4% K rate is second in baseball by exactly 0.1% so far and Philly is hitting a ground ball 44.4% of the time, 13th in baseball. Even with the Phillies being a righty-heavy team, Miley still has just a .270 wOBA to that side of the plate and a 1.08 WHIP. Philadelphia is below league average in every major offensive category we use and if Miley can score 15-18 DK points, that’s all you need.
Honorable Mention – Jose Berrios, James Kaprielian (gets a good offense to pick on but the 4.81 xFIP compared to a 1.53 ERA so far is worrisome), Vince Velasquez
Starting Rotation 5.31 Stacking Options
- Rays against Jameson Taillon (Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Brett Phillips, Randy Arozarena)
- A’s against Logan Gilbert (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano)
- Giants against Dylan Bundy (Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Mike Tauchman)
- Astros who are very underpriced against Eduardo Rodriguez (Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
