Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.30
We get another 10 games for the Sunday slate and we actually have ace pitchers to trust! Those have been in short supply the past couple of days so this is a welcome change of pace. We also have some semi-decent punt options to take chances with so let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 5.30!
Starting Rotation 5.30
Max Scherzer
Mad Max takes the hill today and should be fairly chalky in all formats. For starters, Milwaukee is still fourth in K rate to righty pitching at 26.4%. Scherzer is still over a 35.5% K rate even with all the innings he’s thrown and he’s cut the walks down this year as well. The WHIP has really gone down from 1.38 last year to 0.85 this season and his 16.3% swinging-strike rate is fourth in the majors. Milwaukee should roll out four lefties and it’s interesting to note that the changeup is going to be heavily in play for Scherzer today. He’s not thrown a slider to a lefty hitter all year, using the change instead and it’s generated a .154 wOBA and a 32.3% whiff rate.
That could be part of the reason that lefties are only sporting a .225 wOBA overall against Scherzer and the HR/9 is down to 0.61. It’s a bit odd to see the 2.14 HR/9 to the right side of the plate but the 2.89 xFIP and 23.5% HR/FB rate tell us Mad Max has been unlucky there. The Brew Crew is 22nd in ISO and 30th in OPS. Even with other strong options, Scherzer stands to be popular.
Brandon Woodruff
We didn’t have to go very far to find another strong option as Woodruff against Scherzer looks like a fantastic pitcher’s duel on paper. The righty for Milwaukee just reminded us of his upside even in tough spots as he worked the Padres for 34 DK and eight strikeouts. That’s not a huge surprise with a 30.8% K rate, 5.9% walk rate, and a 0.70 WHIP. The hard-hit rate is under 27% and the 46.2% ground ball rate is exactly what you want from a high K rate pitcher. To top it all off, the 31.3% CSW is top 15 in the majors.
Both sides of the plate are under a .205 wOBA against Woodruff and the K rate doesn’t move that much either. His four-seam has taken over the lead in FanGraphs rating and the other metrics back that up. Of the 73 strikeouts Woodruff has, 45 have come from the four-seam and it’s generated a .089 average, .162 wOBA, and a 30.3% whiff rate. We can make a strong argument to go double ace right in the same game today.
Lucas Giolito
It certainly appears the things are starting to click in for Giolito these past two games. He’s accumulated 14 IP, 16 strikeouts, and just two earned runs. The xFIP is hovering right about 3.55 which isn’t that different than last year and tells us the 4.04 ERA is still a touch inflated. His K rate has taken a hit as well from 33.7% last year to 28.6% this year, but Baltimore helps in that respect. They sit at 24.7% to righty pitching and are 0.5% from being inside the top 10. Baltimore is also 25th or worse in average, OPS, ISO, slugging, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. With the pitch data in Giolito’s favor, this could be a fantastic spot.
The changeup is the strikeout superstar with 40 of 66 so far and it’s only yielded a .234 wOBA and has a 38.1% whiff rate. You have to love the fact Baltimore is in the bottom-three to that pitch in addition to Giolito likely facing five lefties. They have a 0.64 HR/9 and a .242 wOBA against him this season. The .347 wOBA to righties looks worrisome but the .294 BABIP and 24.1% HR/FB have to come back to Earth at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Giolito be not super popular on this slate, and I would be looking to take advantage of that.
Tarik Skubal
Bet you didn’t expect this one, did you? Listen, there’s every reason to stack the Yankees. I won’t blame anyone for doing so today. His game logs have caught my eye though and I wanted to dig deeper. Over the past four starts, Skubal has pitched 21 innings, struck out 31 hitters, given up two earned runs in three of four games, and has thrown at least 90 pitches. In three of those starts, he’s scored at least 19 DK and the past two games have been over 21. Is there some type of link that makes everything make sense?
In the last start, he stuck with just four pitches and ditched the splitter and cutter. That’s not a big change, but the CSW sat at 31% that game. For reference, the season rate for Skubal is 26.6% and he generated a 38% whiff rate. It was pretty much the same story on the 19th as he just went with the four pitches and honestly, that may be almost all it takes. His splitter is terrible with a .548 wOBA given up. Losing that out of the mix is a huge gain for Skubal.
The four-seam needs work with a .451 wOBA and .315 average but his slider and change are actually getting good results. They both have a wOBA under .265 and both are over a 34% whiff rate. This slider is from 2020 but illustrates how good his slider can be –
New York is only 17th against the fastball this season and is 23rd in ISO against lefties. Skubal has also generated 21 ground balls over the last four starts and before that he’d never been over three in any appearance. The Yanks are fifth in ground ball rate to lefty pitching. There’s every chance Skubal ends up with negative points in this one and maybe the past two starts have just been picking on Cleveland and Seattle. That still wouldn’t explain the 19.7 DK against Minnesota where he stuck with a four-pitch mix. This is also the case where New York is likely going to be very popular and you can take it the opposite direction. Imagine getting 20 DK against the chalk stack of the slate.
Michael King
This isn’t particularly a “King is pitching against Detroit” flow chart deal. It’s more that he is $4,000. We’ve talked about it before that when a pitcher is this cheap, we have to talk about him because it can be such an advantage building lineups. King threw 54 pitches last time out which was five days ago and he’s not a stranger to pitching multiple innings. Starting is a different animal but if we can get four innings and some strikeouts, things can work out. In the course of limited action this season, he’s faced 24 lefties and held them to a .245 wOBA, a .471 OPS, and a 29.2% K rate. Those are the metrics that make me excited since the Tigers typically roll out 5-6 lefties and whiff at a top-three rate.
Honorable Mention – Eduardo Rodriguez (weather looks dicey, but he’s a great play if they play), Steven Matz, Josh Fleming, Kyle Freeland
Starting Rotation 5.30 Stacking Options
- Twins against Brad Keller (Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Alex Kirilloff)
- Rockies against Chad Kuhl (Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, C.J. Cron)
- Yankees against Skubal since they are still in play even though I do think Skubal has a strong path to success (Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez)
- Royals against Matt Shoemaker (Carlos Santana, Adalberto Mondesi, Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
