Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.3
We’re back in action for a 10 game slate on Monday and it’s an interesting slate. We have some studs that aren’t in the most ideal spots and a team’s top pitching prospect making his debut. The mid-range looks questionable as well so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 5.3 and see who we like for this slate to find the green!
Starting Rotation 5.3 – Main Targets
Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD)
It’s not a very bold statement to say we don’t normally attack the Angels offense, but I’m not sure another pitcher on this slate has the same style of upside that Glasnow does on the slate. It is true that the Angels only whiff 21.2% to righty pitching, which is the third-best mark in baseball. It’s also true that Glasnow has elite stuff and can navigate any offense in the league. Even his worst start against the Blue Jays was still 19 DK and it was one poor inning. Glasnow is sixth in K rate overall at 39.2% and all three of his pitches have a 32.9% whiff rate or higher. The walk rate of 7.7% would be the second-best mark of his career, which is helping the WHIP stay right at 0.80. It’s great for the Angels to be ranked highly against the slider but good luck with this –
Especially when the next pitch can be this one –
Glasnow is carrying a 1.69 ERA into this start and the 1.69 FIP/2.53 xFIP combo would suggest that’s pretty much how he’s pitched so far. Perhaps his best trait after the strikeout upside is hitters are not squaring him up. The barrel rate is under 8% and the hard-hit rate is just 21.1%. That’s when hitters make contact because his 16.6% swinging-strike rate is also sixth in baseball. Neither side of the plate is a weakness for him and I have no real fears about Glasnow even in the matchup. I firmly believe he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and am willing to play him in any format.
Adam Wainwright ($8,000 DK/$7,200 FD)
This pick should make for a fun day in Discord as I’m sure Brian won’t have anything to say about me potentially picking on his Mets. I have to point out that Wainwright does need to come off the IL. That is expected, as he’s not tested positive for Covid to this point after a family member tested positive. Waino being the second pitcher in the main write-up also tells you that this SP2 spot could potentially be tricky tonight because this isn’t a pitcher I get along with. Metrics-wise, this spot lines up well for him. It’s in St. Louis which helps right off the hop. The Mets only have two hitters (J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil) who are over a 1.0 rating against the curve. Wainwright has also been better to lefties with a .270 wOBA, .600 OPS, and a 29.5% K rate. The Mets are projected to roll out five and the pitcher’s spot, so keep an eye on the opposing lineup. This is from late last season, but my goodness this is the perfect illustrator of what the curve does when the bender is on point –
I also like the Mets ranking sixth in ground ball rate to this point, as Waino generates a ground ball rate of 45.7%. His 11.4% swinging-strike rate would be the best of his career, as would the 31.6% CSW. The curve is really the key to his arsenal. It has a 37.2% whiff rate and the cutter has actually been quite poor with a .457 slugging and .450 wOBA allowed so far. That’s always a little worrisome because if the feel for the curve isn’t there, this could get ugly. Still, what we have to go on is what’s on paper, and the Mets whiff almost 24% of the time to righty pitching.
Shohei Ohtani ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD)
Ohtani may not wind up being an option for us, as he was hit by a pitch yesterday and the elbow is sore. If he starts, I’m playing him. DK still has him under $8,000 and he’s going to have a start sooner or later that could break the slate. In his last two starts, he’s scored 18 and 21 DK points. In the last start, he gave up four runs and only threw 75 pitches, and still crossed 21 DK points. When he’s allowed to throw more pitches and he figures things out as far as control, 30 DK is honestly not out of the question. If he qualified, his 37.1% K rate would be seventh in all of baseball. Yes, he’s walking an insane amount of hitters at 21% and yet the WHIP is only 1.39. I’ve seen some folks dismiss Ohtani on the mound and I don’t think they realize how close he could be for a massive score. The 12.6% swinging-strike rate is more than enough and the 30% CSW is nothing to sneer at either.
My largest concern is the splits as Ohtani is worse to lefty hitters, with a 26.5% K rate and a .322 wOBA allowed. I still believe in him and one of the main reasons is the splitter. Check out this feature from mlb.com to read up more on it.
When he pitched in 2018, the pitch gave up a .036 average across 59 plate appearances. In 20 PA this season, it has not given up a single hit and has an absurd 73.9% whiff rate. That’s not a typo. That pitch also has 18 of his 23 strikeouts, so to say it’s his putaway pitch is an understatement. The salary is simply too low for the upside, as he’s demonstrated the past two starts while not even pitching all that well.
Daniel Lynch ($4,000 DK)
To the surprise of literally nobody, FD doesn’t know that Lynch is a person yet. They really need to hire someone who has even a slight knowledge of MLB prospects. I’m going to be interested to see if the masses flock to Lynch and I lean yes. Listen, rookie pitchers with no innings above A+ ball can be a bit of a mystery bag. There’s no guarantee how he reacts to his first big league action. What we know is he’s $4,000. There are SEVENTY hitters more expensive than him. As long as he scores 6-8 DK, it could be relatively worth it with a Coors Field game. Playing Glasnow and Lynch together leaves you $4,462 per hitter. Talk about playing whoever you want.
Oh, and did I mention this isn’t just some pitcher who’s looking for a cup of coffee in the majors? Lynch is the 24th ranked prospect in all of baseball, according to MLBPipeline.com. Baseball America has him ranked as number seven for pitchers and 21st overall. He’s a 6’6″ lefty that is sitting roughly 95 MPH on his fastball and he can crank it up to 99 MPH. He backs that up with a very good slider, a curve, and a developing changeup. Cleveland may only whiff 20.2% of the time to lefties but it’s not like we need insane strikeout upside here. The only category they aren’t in the bottom 10 offensively is ISO, which also encourages me. I’m hoping to get a better look at him through the day and will add anything that comes up. I’m ready to play him in all formats.
Starting Rotation 5.3 – In Play
Walker Buehler – With a $4,000 pitcher I feel like my pool is going to be fairly concentrated tonight. For the most part, if Lynch kills me then so be it. It’s going to be hard to ruin too many lineups as long as he stays in the positives. Anyways, Buehler is always in play and he’s always one of my least favorites to actually use. I can’t explain it but he always burns me no matter my decision. He’s really talented, with a 25.4% K rate and both the FIP/xFIP are 3.30 or under. The barrel rate isn’t exceptional at over 12% but the Cubs are whiffing almost 29% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. They should also have five RHH and the pitcher’s spot, and Buehler is holding righties to a .200 wOBA and .194 average. Lefties are getting him for a .371 wOBA and a 2.08 HR/9. I’m likely to stay clear of this spot and perhaps use a Cubs lefty as a one-off, like Anthony Rizzo.
Aaron Civale – Well in play, though I’m not sure how much I love paying most of the way up for pitchers with a K rate of 20.5%. What we do like is the 52.8% ground ball rate from Civale, although that aspect of the matchup could be tough. Kansas City is fourth in ground ball rate at just 39% and only six teams reside under 40%. Civale’s swinging-strike rate is back under 10% after clipping double-digits last season, along with just a 24.4% CSW. He’s not throwing any pitch over 27.1%m which is the four-seam so he can keep hitters off-balance. The 2.89 FIP and 23.7% K rate to righties could serve him well against the Royals, it’s just not a spot I’m overly excited about with the Royals having the sixth-best K rate to RHP, even when the pitcher can do this –
Steven Matz – He’s coming off a bad start but it’s interesting to note that only one hit was for extra bases, a three-run home run. The BABIP for that game was .438 and the previous high was .286 so I don’t think we get a repeat. The hard-hit rate would suggest that’s accurate since it’s only at 24%. One of the bigger concerns in his profile is the O-Contact%, which is how many times a hitter makes contact with a pitch out of the zone. It’s sitting at 49.2% so far when the career rate is 65.5%. Oakland is a powerful offense to lefty pitching with the third-ranked ISO but they also have the 15th OPS and the 23rd OBP. With a K rate over 25%, Matz has room for another solid game here. Interestingly, he’s been better on the road with how small the Jays “home” park is playing. The road ERA is only 2.60 through 17.1 IP so far, and it’ll be interesting to see if that continues for Matz.
German Marquez – He wouldn’t be a main play, but I wouldn’t take him totally out of the pool. Surprisingly, Marquez has just a 3.13 ERA over 23 IP at home so far this season. Both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.90 as well, which deserves attention. Lefties have always crushed him but this is fascinating because across 57 lefty batters faced, Marquez has allowed a .255 wOBA and zero home runs. San Francisco is 18th or worse to his three main pitches and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, exactly in line with his past four seasons. You could honestly do worse.
Dane Dunning – One of the first metrics I look at is how a pitcher does against righties when they play the Twins. The main power bats are righty and Dunning has struggled to that side of the plate a bit with a .314 average and a .315 wOBA but the BABIP to that side is .429. The K rate is higher at 28.3% and the FIP/xFIP is 2.18/2.12. Minnesota now has four lefties in the normal lineup and Dunning is sporting a ground ball rate of almost 51%. 83% of his pitches are four-seams or sliders and while the Twins are fourth against the fastball, they are 25th against the slider. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunning have a solid game here, even though I likely don’t play him myself.
Starting Rotation 5.3 – Out of Play
Dinelson Lamet – I’ve never been as angry as I am typing Lamet is out of play, but I’m struggling to see any reason to play him. If he was healthy, he’d be my number one pitcher on the board tonight. The issue is he had a UCL “strain” last year. Ok, fine. Lamet opted for rehab as the treatment, worked back, and pitched dominantly for two innings…before being removed for forearm tightness. Look, we certainly don’t know better than the Padre’s doctors. Fernando Tatis has proven that beyond doubt. Lamet is still full price and has all of two innings under his belt since hurting his UCL, which is the most “important” ligament in the elbow for pitchers. For those who may not know, that’s the ligament that relates to Tommy John surgery. There are just zero reasons to go after him unless you want 5% exposure in MME formats (100+ lineups).
Adrian Houser – Playing Houser after a random seven strikeout game feels like chasing our tails, in honesty. Philly may strike out at a top 10 rate to RHP at 25.8% but still, Houser hasn’t even hit 19% for his K rate this season. He also only has one season over 20% which looks out of place against the rest of his career. If he qualified, his 59.7% ground ball rate would rank second in the majors but at his current salary, we do need more than ground balls to make it work. The swinging-strike rate is putrid at 6.5% and his highest whiff rate pitch is the slider, at 20%. He throws it just 7.7% of the time.
Frankie Montas – Can I just start saying “he pitches against Toronto” and be done with it? If the said pitcher is not the absolute elite, I’m just not going to go after the Jays. I’m a Montas fan but you can’t argue that he’s elite. The K rate is under 22%, the FIP is 5.20, the HR/9 is 2.19, and the barrel rate is 14.8%. He’s also getting mauled by righties with a .421 wOBA, .313 average, 3.38 HR/9, and a puny 9.6% K rate. Give me all the Vlad Jr. and the righties from Toronto.
Kenta Maeda – I’d love to say I had confidence in this being the get-right spot for Maeda and perhaps that happens. Texas does whiff at the highest rate to RHP and is the only team over 30% in that metric. However, they are also top-five against the slider and that’s the main pitch for Maeda. The bigger issue is that pitch is getting clobbered with a .386 average, .773 slugging, and .513 wOBA allowed so far. It’s also allowed four homers and the Rangers have two of the top 30 slider hitters in baseball, Adolis Garcia and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The K rate is under 18%, the FIP is 6.18, and the lefties have a .472 wOBA and a 2.92 HR/9. You’d have to be gutsy to use him by the metrics of this season.
Aaron Sanchez – Sure, the Rockies lineup isn’t as dangerous as it used to be but Sanchez is still out for me. He’s capped at right about 80 pitches, is heading to Coors Field, and has only a 20% K rate. The 60.3% ground ball rate would lead the league if he qualified, which is nice for Coors. My issue is if we risk it for the biscuit in that environment, I want upside. Sanchez simply hasn’t given us a reason to suspect he has that.
Vince Velasquez – I was honestly sort of tempted when I saw he’d face the Brewers but those hopes were dashed. Milwaukee is the third-ranked team against fastballs and Vinnie Velo is over 56% in usage on that particular pitch. It’s not fooling anyone with a .429 wOBA and a .565 slugging. Velasquez also has a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.10, a HR/9 of 2.92, a walk rate of 18.3%, and a fly ball rate over 51%. I can’t look past those many factors to get to his 30% K rate.
Tyler Anderson – I’ve played him a few times this year, as the ERA is 3.38 and the 3.51 FIP says it’s pretty accurate. Anderson is throwing his cutter about 10% more and the wOBA on it has dropped by about 100 points to .273. The swinging-strike rate is 14% which is easily the career-high and the overall swing rate from opposing batters has jumped from 45.6% last year to 53.3% this year. The sad part is the Padres are a very tough matchup and can load up with RHH, as there should be at least five. Anderson has a .317 wOBA and a 1.35 HR/9 against that side of the plate so we’ll wait for his next turn.
Kyle Hendricks – The Dodgers are one of the prime stacks of the night. Hendricks is sitting under 87 MPH on his sinker and four-seam and the latter is getting obliterated with a .500 average and .648 wOBA. The HR/9 is 3.97 and the FIP is 8.30. His swinging-strike rate is down 3% to just 8.8% and lefties absolutely are destroying him with a .485 average, .617 wOBA, 6.00 HR/9, and an 11.26 FIP. It’s scary to see a 90.9% strand rate to lefties because things could be even worse results-wise.
Joey Lucchesi – If we were starved for value, I could possibly see it since the 6.75 ERA doesn’t jive with the 1.47 FIP. I will also say that the 37% K rate to righties through 27 hitters faced catches your eye, but the Cardinals are likely going to have a full lineup of righties. They are above average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OBP, and average. Six of eight hitters for the Cards have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs, a pitch Lucchesi is throwing about 37% of the time.
Dean Kremer – No, he likely doesn’t suffer from a .455 BABIP all year but the FIP is still 5.36 which is an issue. The HR/9 is 2.40 and the swinging-strike rate is under 10%. Both sides of the plate are over a .430 wOBA so it’s tough to construct a case for him here.
Erik Swanson – We’ve seen 67.2 IP in the majors for him and he’s totaled a 2.66 HR/9, a 6.06 FIP, 11.6% barrel rate, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a hard-hit rate over 35%. Lefties have got the better of him with a .363 wOBA and 2.97 HR/9.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
