Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.27
Thursday brings us all-day baseball, as we have five games in the afternoon and then another six in the evening. We’ll be doing some quick notes on the six-game slate and then the full breakdown for the seven-game, so let’s get right to work in the Starting Rotation 5.27!
Starting Rotation 5.27 – Afternoon
Note – The Mets/Rockies game is on the afternoon schedule and it looks as if Marcus Stroman will pitch the first one. Please refer to his writeup from yesterday to read why we like him, and you could potentially make a case to fade Shane Bieber on this slate with Stroman and the next pitcher.
Pablo Lopez – This could be weird considering the next pitcher on the list, but Lopez might well be my overall favorite option. Philly is 21st against the changeup so far and that is the main pitch for Lopez with 28 strikeouts, a .287 wOBA, and a 24.6% whiff rate. The Phillies are also right on the verge of being a top-five strikeout offense in the majors at 26.2% and this game is in Miami. Lopez has always had very significant home/road splits and this year he’s been lights out in Miami. Through 29.2 IP, he’s accumulated a 0.61 ERA, .222 wOBA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 28% K rate. With Bryce Harper out of this lineup on top of everything else, all the boxes are checked for Lopez.
Shane Bieber – We all expected some regression for Bieber this season but it’s hit harder than expected to this point. The .354 BABIP continues to drag him down but the 2.93 FIP/2.72 xFIP also gives us hope it quiets down soon. Bieber still has a 35.5% K rate which is the highest on the slate by a wide margin and the Tigers are still sitting second in K rate to righties at 27.1%. Lefty hitters are the main portion of the Detroit lineup with five and they have a .333 wOBA. They also have a 38.6% K rate and a .393 BABIP so you have to feel like those numbers come down at some point.
Matt Boyd – I still can’t say I love the 4.72 xFIP but Cleveland isn’t a scary lineup to lefty pitching, especially in their current state. They sit 26th in wOBA, 25th in wRC+, 17th in ISO, 26th in OPS, and 27th in OBP. It’s true they may not strike out a ton at 22.1% and Boyd is under 20% for his K rate, but getting six or seven strong innings is what you’re looking for here. Boyd is sporting a 28.2% hard-hit rate and he’s pumping in strikes to start hitters with a 73.1% first-strike rate. Only five pitchers sit above 70% and only Julio Urias is higher than Boyd. He’ll typically see eight righty hitters but even then, Boyd has them held to a .286 wOBA and a .641 OPS.
Honorable Mention – Tyler Anderson, possibly Kyle Hendricks but he’s been tough to get a hold of this season. I lean towards being fine playing him since his splits to lefties look terribly but include a .458 BABIP and a 3.91 xFIP. I do prefer Boyd for $300 more.
Stacking Options
- Padres against Adrian Houser (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado (if active), Tommy Pham, Wil Myers)
- Cubs against Tyler Anderson since it is the fourth time they’ve seen him (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ)
- Marlins against Spencer Howard (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Rojas, Corey Dickerson, Garrett Cooper)
Starting Rotation 5.27 – Evening
Note – The Dodgers and Giants game is weird. Neither team has announced a starter, but both would line up for Walker Buehler and Alex Wood. Provided both are announced, I like both and would assume Buehler will carry the ownership up top. The Giants are leading the league in K rate to righties and have seen the offense weakened a bit with the loss of Brandon Belt. Wood is quite simply far too cheap. Yes, the Dodgers can be terrifying against lefty pitching but he’s under $7,000. This is a pitcher that has a 25.5% K rate, a 59.6% ground ball rate, and the ERA/FIP/xFIP trio are all under 3.00. Los Angeles also whiffs over 25% of the time against lefty pitching this year. If Wood can replicate his 17 DK point outing from the last game, I’d be happy at $6,900. We just need to know if they start.
Chris Bassitt
The Angels lineup is a lot less intimidating when Mike Trout is on the sideline, not like that’s going out on a limb to say. Bassitt has been great so far with a 3.69 ERA and it’s mashed almost exactly by a 3.66 xFIP. The K rate is almost 26% and batters are having a hard time hitting the ball with authority at a 5.4% barrel rate and a 25.9% hard-hit rate. The swinging-strike rate is a career-best at 11.6% and Bassitt can thank his O-contact rate going from 68.2% last year to 58.9% for that. The righty for Oakland is pretty even as far as splits with lefties sporting the better .301 wOBA. Both sides whiff about 25% and neither side is over a 1.16 WHIP. For the salary, it’s hard to find better consistency.
Shohei Ohtani
Normally, Ohtani is a building block on any slate for me but I think we need to have some caution here. While the Angels insisted there were no injury concerns, Ohtani’s velocity was down in his last start by 3-6 MPH. That is a huge drop and effectively took the four-seam out of the mix. He threw it 40 times but it was not nearly as efficient and he threw his cutter 32% of the time, knowing the fastball wasn’t there for him. If his four-seam/splitter combo is down 5-6 MPH, Ohtani is not going to be that great of a pitcher.
Even with the struggles last game, the splitter still only has two hits given up and a 58.2% whiff rate with a .084 wOBA. Oakland’s lineup typically features five righties and that should help Ohtani as well. The right side of the plate only has a .200 wOBA, .401 OPS, and a massive 44.8% K rate. If Ohtani is right, I would absolutely love him here since Oakland is over 24% in K rate to righty pitching. There is a significant risk because there is no way to know where the velocity sits before the game starts.
Dylan Cease
I’ll be frank – I had Cease on my list before I saw the DK pricing. It is egregious and I think the salary alone leaves him as a GPP-only player tonight. Having said that, the spot is excellent for him. His slider has been a difference-maker this season with 23 strikeouts already and a whiff rate over 51%. It still gets hit a little bit with a wOBA over .300 but at least it hasn’t given up a home run yet. What we like is the K rate overall at 29% because the Orioles are striking out about 24% of the time.
Their walk rate is only 8.1% and that is 21st. That is a big help for Cease and his 12.3% walk rate, which is quite high. His xFIP is still only 4.15 so even with some of his weaknesses, the K rate is worth chasing. Baltimore is no higher than 26th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. I just wish he was an awful lot cheaper and do prefer Buehler, Ohtani, Bassitt, and Wood ahead of Cease.
Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray, Stephen Strasburg
Starting Rotation 5.27 Stacking Options
- White Sox against Bruce Zimmermann (Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Nick Madrigal Andrew Vaughn)
- Cardinals against Seth Frankoff (Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt)
- Mariners against Kolby Allard (Mitch Haniger, Ty France, Kyle Lewis)
- Rangers against Chris Flexen (Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Willie Calhoun)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
