Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.23
We have a 10 game slate for Sunday and while it’s not exactly brimming with big names, it does present us with some pretty fun options. There are multiple cheap starters worth looking into today which could help unlock just about any stack we want. Let’s get rolling and talk about who we should be targeting to find those green screens once again in Starting Rotation 5.23!
Starting Rotation 5.23 – Main Targets
Freddy Peralta
One of the many facets that pop off the page for Peralta is both his main pitches rank inside the top 12 in the majors. The four-seam is 12th and the slider is sixth in their categories, and they have combined for 75 of his 79 strikeouts. Neither pitch has yielded a wOBA above .269 and they both also have a 32.4% whiff rate or higher. So while the Reds rank well against the fastball, I’m not that worried because he’s also third in K rate at 39.7%. The swinging-strike rate is also seventh at 15.4%. He doesn’t even throw the changeup much but it’s still nasty –
The Reds lineup could potentially work in his favor as well. With Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas on the IL, Cincinnati should put forth five righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta has struck out that side of the plate to a 47.9% rate and has a 1.94 xFIP. I would much rather play him than Zack Wheeler against Boston at this salary range.
Hyun Jin Ryu
Oh, look, another lefty facing the Rays! Much like yesterday, I’m already interested due to the strikeout upside the Rays have shown when they face lefty pitching, over 30%. Through his eight starts, Ryu has shown a 2.94 FIP and a 3.08 xFIP, which gives us confidence in the 2.51 ERA. His K rate has come down slightly to 24.5% but the walks are down under 3% and the WHIP is under 1.00. It’s been very difficult to get a hard hit against Ryu as that rate is only 23.1% and his swinging-strike rate is right in line with his last four seasons at 11.7%.
Righties have a .285 wOBA against Ryu but he also uses the four-seam/cutter/changeup mix mostly to the right side. Those three pitches have accounted for 39 of 45 strikeouts which leads me to believe the 22.6% rate he has right now is not here to stay. Ryu’s O-Contact is at 68.5% right now compared to his 61.7% rate so this could be the game where the K rate catches up to everything else a little bit.
Max Fried
Since coming back from injury, Fried has started three games and scored 22, 16, and 23 DK points. During those three starts, he’s averaging a 27.7% K rate, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .253 WHIP. Even if we zoom back and look at the whole season, the 5.46 ERA does not make sense with the 4.22 FIP and 3.92 xFIP in tow. His hard-hit rate is 25.3% and Fried has generated a 12.6% swinging-strike rate overall. Both the slider and curve have generated a whiff rate over 36.5% each and has 24 of 32 strikeouts thus far.
The Pirates have struggled against lefties this season with a 24.5% K rate and were just handled fairly easily by Drew Smyly, who is not the same caliber pitcher at this point in their careers. Pittsburgh also ranks 28th in wOBA and OPS along with 26th in ISO, so the spot really works out well for Fried as he finds his footing in the 2021 season.
Casey Mize
It’s possible that Mize is starting to figure things out but I do think we should approach him with some caution. Any result that comes against Seattle has to be weighted since they are a dreadful offense. Still, it can’t be a bad thing for Mize’s confidence to go out and shove for almost eight innings. The K rate lacks at 17.8% but he flashed upside with eight last game and the 53% ground ball rate is very solid (it ranks eighth in the majors). Both the four-seam and slider have a whiff rate right around 27% and past one really poor start against these Royals, Mize hasn’t been all that bad.
Since he’s faced the Royals’ offense since the disaster and posted a serviceable start, I feel a little better about him here. The .297 wOBA to the right side of the plate is his best rate and Kansas City plays five typically. Their most dangerous players are on that side as well for the most part. The K rate has been slightly lower at 16.8% but sometimes you have to take a leap with young pitchers. I wouldn’t go here in anything other than GPP but Mize has such a pedigree that I’m excited anytime he strings together three good starts.
Kris Bubic
The 23-year-old lefty is back on the mound for the Royals today and he’s certainly earned the spot so far. In 18.2 IP, he’s sporting a 0.96 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP. While it’s quite clear he won’t keep an ERA under 1.00 and will suffer some regression, his price has not come up nearly enough yet. Bubic has generated a ground ball rate of 59.6%, helping mitigate the 12.9% walk rate (it was 9.9% last season and hasn’t been an issue in the minors very much at all). He has also only been hit hard 17% of the time so far and his changeup has a 33.3% whiff rate. It has eight of the 12 strikeouts and while Bubic is only at 20% of this K rate, he’s only $5,000.
We talked in Friday’s article about how the Tigers have improved a bit offensively lately, but they are still a spot to attack. Bubic has three straight games of at least 14 DK and has been adding to his pitch count, working it up to 85 in the last start. There’s not much of a way around the 5.22 xFIP to righties, which is a concern but it does look better for his career at 4.48. The career K rate to that side of the plate is also 21.1%, more than acceptable at this salary and against a team that whiffs over 30% to lefties on the season.
Honorable Mention – Cristian Javier, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Yamamoto but I’m much more likely to use Bubic
Stacking Options
- Nationals against Matt Harvey (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison)
- Astros against Mike Foltynewicz (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley)
- Cleveland against J.A. Happ (Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow, Harold Ramirez)
- Blue Jays against Josh Fleming (Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Bo Bichette, Jonathan Davis)
- Orioles against Patrick Corbin (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
