Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.22
We get the normal split slate on Saturday with seven in the afternoon and six in the evening, so there is plenty of baseball to choose from! The early slate brings one of the bigger names to toe the rubber in the league but there are options behind him. The evening slate is pretty similar in that there’s one that could garner some serious attention but isn’t an absolute slam dunk. The difference is the other options on the evening slate are pretty rough. Let’s dig into Starting Rotation 5.22 and figure out who we need to be looking at and why to find green screens for both slates!
Starting Rotation 5.22 – Afternoon
Shane Bieber
I was a little excited when I saw Bieber because he’s been a bit of an odd pitcher this season. The ERA has bumped up from 1.63 to 3.17 this year and he’s just been more hittable, as the WHIP went from 0.87 last year to 1.22 this season. Now, the walk rate is up almost 2% but that wouldn’t explain everything, especially since the K rate is still above 36%. One of the biggest differences is just somewhat bad luck, as the BABIP is .341. The jumps have come from the four-seam’s average of .253 up from .210 last year and his curve has gone from .095 to .200. The whiff rate on both pitches are also down, which might explain the zone rate siting at 49.5% after 42.6% last year.
What this all tells me is Bieber has simply had some bad luck so far and there’s nothing to get too carried away with. Maybe he’s a little bit riskier but hitters are making far less contact when they swing at pitches outside of the zone, 32.1% in 2021 compared to 41% in 2020. Bieber should face five righties and he’s been better to that side of the plate with a .287 wOBA. On the flip side, lefties have a higher wOBA but also strike out at a 40.5% and the xFIP to both sides is under 2.75. The bottom line is I’ll still play Bieber with limited fear.
Lance McCullers
Based on the last six game logs, McCullers would be due a big 30+ DK point game as he’s alternated between scoring in the teens and then into the ’30s. Anyways, he’s sporting a 27.7% K rate thus far and the 1.07 WHIP would be the best he’s ever produced. The 55.5% ground ball rate is fourth in the league and Texas is third against righty pitching, which is a nice fit for McCullers. His curve also remains a significant weapon with the second-best rating behind Julio Urias, a .197 wOBA given up, and a 37.2% whiff rate.
He throws it to lefties almost exclusively so Texas playing four helps him out. The splits overall would tell us that no style of lineup should hinder McCullers as both sides of the plate are between .260 and .265 for the wOBA. They also both whiff right about 27.5% and Texas is still at a 26.8% K rate to righty pitching. I don’t particularly want to pay the premium for Sonny Gray and would rather just play McCullers in just as good of a spot.
Pablo Lopez
I’m honestly not even bothering listing the ranks for the Mets because their lineup is unrecognizable right now. I mean, it looks like a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup after losing Pete Alonso yesterday as well.
That is really bad folks and Lopez should be able to find his footing after two sub-par starts in a row. He’s not going to bowl you over with strikeout upside at 22.7% but he gets a good deal of ground balls at 44.9% and the hard-hit rate is under 31%. The changeup and four-seam are doing virtually all of the strikeout damage with 41 of 46 on the season. Perhaps the best facet for Lopez is he’s at home, which has always mattered for him and continues into this season.
The righty has thrown 22.2 innings at home and 26.1 on the road. When he’s in Miami, the ERA is 0.79 and on the road, it balloons up to 5.13. His career difference is over three runs a game, so this is not a big surprise. The K rate jumps up to 27.2% and the HR/9 is 0.40, so he’s really not all that expensive when looking through that lens.
Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray but my goodness the DK salary, Matt Boyd if you prefer not to spend on pitching in both slots. You can roll the dice with Brady Singer but if one of his two pitches isn’t working, it’s over for him.
Stacking Options
- Braves against Mitch Keller and whatever is left of the Pirates bullpen after last night ( Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, William Contreras)
- Nationals against Bruce Zimmermann (Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman)
- Orioles against Jon Lester (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Pedro Severino)
- Astros against Jordan Lyles (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley) – this one will be tough to make work with high-end pitching.
Starting Rotation 5.22 – Evening
Walker Buehler
Buehler is coming off an excellent start in a spot that could have gone south for him, so that does help my interest tonight. It also helps that the rest of the options are not very good and he’s the clear-cut number one option. It is interesting to note that the cutter gives up the highest wOBA at .327 and that is close to his second-most used pitch this season.
It has also given up two home runs so that stands out as a potential trouble spot but Buehler also exhibits a 27.5% K rate, a FIP and xFIP combo under 3.55, and a 30.8% CSW. His hard-hit rate is not ideal at nearly 40% but at least the ground ball rate is 40.9%. I’m also not in love with the .298 wOBA, 1.64 HR/9, and 23.9% K rate to the left side of the plate but he’s still one of the lead options on the evening.
Robbie Ray
The last game out for Ray was sort of what I think we can expect from this point on. He gave up four runs and got taken out of the yard multiple times, but he also only walked one and whiffed nine through just 5.2 IP. He’s been super consistent on his pitch count with every start but the first one of the season over 90 pitches. His 6.6% walk rate is ridiculous given his career rates and it’s all on the four-seam. It has given up seven homers but it also has 31 of 48 strikeouts for Ray.
His 28.9% K rate would be top-20 if he qualified and we talked yesterday about how much the Rays are striking out against lefty pitching. Ray is at his best for the K rate against righties at an even 30% and the xFIP is 3.59. I believe he’ll always give up more than that metric would indicate just because of the fastball-heavy approach, but at this rate, you can live with it. With Tampa sitting 21st in ISO and over a 31% K rate to lefty pitching, Ray checks the boxes we look for.
Adbert Alzolay
I think we could see Alzolay pick up some popularity at this price because any pitcher beneath his salary is seriously questionable. Alzolay is over 27% in K rate and his xFIP of 3.31 tells us the 4.62 ERA is a little underserved with a 24.2% HR/FB rate. He’s also cut his walk rate from 14.9% to 4.9% so the drop in K rate has been worth it for him. The 13.4% swinging-strike rate and CSW are 13.4% and 30.5%, both of which are career-highs.
The slider has been incredible with a .137 average, .171 wOBA, and a 38.6% whiff rate. It also has 27 of 35 strikeouts so far and even though St. Louis has hit the pitch well, Alzolay’s would rank fourth if he had the innings to qualify. He has also dominated righties with a .208 wOBA, 31.9% K rate, and a 0.68 WHIP. With the Cardinals being mostly righty in their lineup, this spot rates well for Azolay.
Honorable Mention – Chriss Bassitt after he came back down to Earth a little bit last start and Shane McClanahan solely for his strikeout upside at 30.6%.
Stacking Options
- Boston against Spencer Howard (Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec)
- San Diego against Justus Sheffield (Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Austin Nola, Trent Grisham)
- Chicago against Miles Mikolas (Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Joe Pederson)
- Oakland against Dylan Bundy (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
