Starting Rotation 5.21

Starting Rotation 5.21

Every single team is in action tonight but that does not mean we have an overwhelming amount of options. The good news is we do have some of the more fantasy-friendly pitchers in baseball on the mound, but some of them draw pretty tough spots. There is almost certainly going to be a clear ace option for cash games but let’s talk about who else is on the board for Starting Rotation 5.21! 

Starting Rotation 5.21 – Main Targets 

Trevor Bauer 

The price is high for Bauer but it is deserved. He’s coming off a 38.6 DK score game and among the ace-level pitchers, he draws the easiest matchup. Yes, the Giants are first against his cutter and they just came off flirting with 20 runs but Bauer is different than the Reds pitchers. Bauer also uses the four-seam a lot more than the cuter to lefties at a 253 to 91 ratio. With the Giants typically playing five lefties, that’s not insignificant. The wOBA given up heavily favors the four-seam as well at .188 to .327 and it carries a 24.8% whiff rate. Overall, the 35.5% K rate is seventh in the league and that’s part of the reason he is so expensive. 

The 47.5% fly-ball rate finds a nice home in San Francisco and his fastball is the highest-rated pitch in baseball on the FanGraphs rating scale. Both sides of the plater are under a .250 wOBA so even though lefties hit Bauer a little bit more, it’s not something to worry a lot about. Bauer also has a lower K rate to lefties at 31.4% but San Francisco is rotating around the top-three in K rate to righties. Given the options around him, I expect Bauer to be the cash option but in GPP it gets far more interesting. 

Tyler Glasnow 

The Blue Jays have the best game against Glasnow of the year with five runs but they still whiffed 10 times and Glasnow scored 19.3 DK even with allowing those runs. Sure, 19 DK isn’t what we’re looking for at this salary but Glasnow isn’t super likely to give up five runs in one inning again. The swinging-strike rate of 16.8%, CSW of 34.7%, and 38.6% K rate all reside in the top-four in the majors, so even if he’s giving up 2-3 runs per start, the K rate does all the work to make up for it. 

Making this spot slightly better is the fact Glasnow is slightly less susceptible to power from righty hitters with just a 0.90 HR/9 and both sides of the plate are under a .245 wOBA and a 2.95 xFIP. The four-seam/curve mix account for all but nine of his 85 strikeouts on the season and both the slider and curve have whiff rates over 43%. I’ll be interested to see where the field goes and what they do with Glasnow tonight. If he’s not that popular, that will be fairly exciting. 

Marcus Stroman 

It can be a little difficult to get Stroman right since he’s not normally the pitcher we chase. I’m not happy with the price but pitching, in general, is very pricey tonight. Stroman checks in in part due to matchup since the Marlins strike out 26.7% of the time to righty pitching. They are also third in ground ball rate at 47.2% and that’s something that Stroman knows how to do. He ranks sixth overall in ground ball rate at 54% and the K rate is 18.5%. While that’s not exactly what we want, his swinging-strike rate is still 11.6% and that would be a career-best. The O-contact rate is up from last season’s 61.5% to 64.1% and that makes me believe those two metrics point to a higher K upside. 

Both sides of the plate are under .280 in wOBA and almost everything is static as far as the splits go. The K rate, xFIP, WHIP, and average are very similar no matter which side a hitter resides on. All of his pitches that aren’t the sinker boast a whiff rate of at least 30.6% and none of the top three pitchers are over a .270 wOBA allowed. The value pitching gets pretty scary tonight so Stroman needs to be in play in what rates as a great spot for him. 

Mike Minor

Minor’s surface stats look roundly awful so far, but there are very strong reasons to play him tonight. For one, he has flashed some upside with two starts over 27 DK and one of those starts came against this very Tigers offense. Now, Detroit hasn’t been near as poor lately and we have to note that. Even if you use just the stats from May, they are still having issues against lefty pitchers. Detroit is 29th in ISO, 18th in OPS, 23rd in slugging, and 16th in wOBA with a K rate of almost 29%. That’s a far cry from the dead last position they held but it’s still a spot to go after with a lefty pitcher that has a 24.4% K rate. 

Minor has an ERA over 5.00 but the xFIP is down to 4.54 and that is more palatable. His hard-hit rate is 28.2% to go along with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate and a 27.7% CSW. What I like is the Tigers will likely counter Minor with eight righty hitters. Not only does Minor hold them to a .297 wOBA and an OPS under .680, but that means his curveball will be heavily in play. Minor uses it almost only to righty hitters and it has the most strikeouts of any pitch at 16, the highest whiff rate at 32.1%, and a .188 wOBA. It’s still the fourth pitch but with Detroit ranking so poorly against it, we can see the upside under $8,000. 

Tyler Anderson 

To the surprise of really nobody, Atlanta has also started to pick it up against lefties. The difference is they are wildly more talented than the Tigers so this spot is absolutely scary. Keep in mind that Anderson has talked through the fire before against the Cubs and Padres. So far, Anderson has racked up a 23.5% K rate and a 41.6% ground ball rate, both strong metrics for this salary range. The swinging-strike rate is up to 12.9% and his changeup has been a big reason why. While the four-seam/cutter mix has accounted for 33 strikeouts, the change has been the best pitch for results at a .194 wOBA, .174 average, and a 31.4% whiff rate. 

Atlanta is sporting a K rate of over 25% since the start of May which is plenty to take advantage of. Anderson has kept the ERA, FIP, and xFIP all below 3.95 and he’s been at his best to righty hitters. The likely lineup for Atlanta will feature seven righties plus the pitcher spot and Anderson has a 25.9% K rate and a .278 wOBA to that side of the plate. It will be far from easy, but the path for Anderson to have success is there tonight. 

Anthony Kay

I will admit that this play is not for everyone and is very risky. Kay sure looks like a pitcher that has had just dreadful luck so far and while the Rays are the Win Daily Official Lineup when they face righty pitching, the script flips when it’s a lefty. Using the same filter from the start of May, Tampa leads in K rate at 34.5% and is not higher than 24th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, or wRC+. They do still have power with the 11th-best ISO but the K rate makes it worth gambling. Kay is sitting at 25.8% through 13.2 IP so far and his advanced metrics paint a much better picture than the 7.24 ERA. 

The strand rate is only 56.6% and the HR/FB rate is over 18%. His xFIP is 4.16 and his FIP is still 4.67, which is fine at $5,900. With a BABIP of .371, you have to assume things even out and this is where the small sample size would be noteworthy. The lefty for the Jays has only given up one barrel so far and has a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA to righties is only .308 and all his pitches have a whiff rate over 22% thus far. He’s thrown close to 80 pitches a couple of times, so if everything goes well you can see five innings, a run or two, and possibly 5-6 strikeouts with Tampa on the other end. 

Honorable Mention – Ian Anderson, Carlos Rodon, and Martin Perez are all in play but seem very expensive. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!