Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.2
It’s Sunday and that means that this MLB slate can be a little wonky since some teams will utilize “Sunday lineups” and play some of their bench players. There are times when that can change how we feel about matchups but we’ll talk about things in the article as everyone is playing a normal lineup. There are 20 pitchers to get to for the day so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.2 and set our foundation!
Starting Rotation 5.2 – Main Targets
Note – As of now, the Brewers have not announced a starter. It would be Corbin Burnes if he clears health protocols. If he does start, he’d be a top option for Starting Rotation 5.2 even against the Dodgers. The timeline wouldn’t fit him having Covid so we should feel comfortable if he takes the mound.
Max Scherzer ($9,700 DK/$12,000 FD)
Over on DK, I would be stunned if Scherzer is not projected as the chalkiest pitcher on the slate. He’s under $10,000 which I think we can be sure has rarely happened these past few years. On FD, I think it’s a much livelier debate because there are some signs that Scherzer could be slowing down just a little bit. He’s only thrown 30 innings but the hard-hit rate is 40.8% and the career number has never been above 35.7%. Likewise, the fly ball rate is over 57% and the highest it has ever been is 47.9%. Hitters are squaring him up as well more frequently with a 12.7% barrel rate. Even the splits are weird as RHH have a .349 wOBA with a 3.14 HR/9. When metrics are this far out of whack, I turn to the pitch mix.
There is a pitch that sticks out as the exact culprit. His four-seam is down about 1 MPH and he’s given up three bombs but he gave up seven last season across 62.1 IP. That’s right about the same ratio. The average, slugging, and wOBA are all better this season so far as well. Then we get to the slider, which has been an issue. It’s given up two home runs, compared to zero last season. The average is up but the slugging is .455 compared to .167 and the wOBA is .304 compared to .176. The whiff rate is about the exact same so it’s still a good pitch, but the Marlins do rate well against it so far.
It’s not all bad, as Scherzer is at a 15.1% swinging-strike rate, which is 10th in baseball. He’s still got the goods more often than not –
Miami is also 10th in ground ball rate to righties so hopefully that limits some of Scherzer’s fly ball tendencies. One of the best ways for Scherzer to get back on track (so to speak) is to throw more first-pitch strikes. His career rate is 64.2% and this season is 58.6%, the lowest since his rookie season. It would help if hitters swung at more pitches outside of the zone too. His O-Swing% is down from 33% last year to 29.7%. That’s a sizable jump and I would bet the slider is hurting those ratios as well. The bottom line is Scherzer is still a great pitcher, but it could be time to temper expectations just a bit. I’m eating the chalk in cash and probably even single entry, but past that I don’t think it’s a bad play to get different.
Lucas Giolito ($8,600 DK/$10,600 FD)
Giolito is coming off a mediocre start but I have to put the blame almost entirely on manager Tony LaRussa. He came out for the seventh inning at 89 pitches and things seemed great. He then issued a walk on eight pitches, got a flyout on nine pitches, and then gave up a double. Most managers would be ready with the hook. The next pitch was dong and then LaRussa let him face two more hitters. There were zero reasons to let him go 114 pitches after being off the mound for over a week. He was mostly back to normal as it was and now gets a fantastic pitch data spot.
It doesn’t hurt that Giolito is under $9,000 on DK and the xFIP is 3.16 compared to the 5.68 ERA. He’s also generating a swinging-strike rate of 14.6% so his stuff is working for the most part outside of the Boston start. Cleveland should send six lefties to the plate and that should work best for Giolito with a .250 wOBA, .192 average, 32.8% K rate, and a 2.56 FIP to that side of the plate. The changeup is still elite –
This might be the easiest it ever is to play Scherzer and Giolito together and we could be looking at 60 DK points if things go well for each pitcher in the Starting Rotation 5.2.
Trevor Rogers ($7,900 DK/$10,200 FD)
Even though the matchup is on the tougher side, I can’t fathom why DK dropped Rogers in salary by $500 after scoring 27.9 DK points. Washington has the sixth-fewest plate appearances to lefties so far but they have done some serious work. They are top three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Even though they are 13th in ISO, that’s not enough to knock Washington off the perch of an elite offense to lefties so far. The K rate is only 21.3% but Rogers sports a 34.9% K rate himself. He’s also given up just one barrel on the season across 109 batters faced, which is wildly impressive.
Rogers has smoked the right side of the plate for a .217 wOBA, .156 average, a 35.6% K rate, and a 2.00 FIP. His four-seam has picked up velocity to 95 MPH on average with 28 of 38 strikeouts. It’s also going to help that Juan Soto is out of the lineup. He’s the second-highest ranked fastball hitter on the team and without him, Washington is 20th. I wouldn’t go there in cash but if the top two come in super popular, Rogers is a very legitimate pivot in GPP. I always tend to side with pitching ahead of offenses when said pitching can do this –
Tyler Mahle ($7,800 DK/$9,300 FD)
Mahle is another pitcher that cannot be ignored on this slate at this price point. He may be putting things together with a 2.80 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and a 1.75 ERA. On top of that, Mahle is sporting a 35.3% K rate with a 0.97 WHIP. There is a bit of a concern with the fly ball rate at 48.1% because of his HR.FB rate is 8%, which would easily be a career-low. With the Cubbies striking out over 29% of the time to righties, Mahle can get by if they aren’t making any contact. The four-seam is the key to success with a .146 average, .250 slugging, and a .260 wOBA. It’s also racked up 22 of 36 strikeouts with a 31.4% whiff rate. Even last year you could see how good the individual pitch was –
The top three fastball hitters for the Cubs are Kris Bryant, Jason Hayward, and Willson Contreras. After that, there is a steep drop in hitters that should worry us. Chicago can put out five righties, which could pose a small issue as they have a .365 wOBA but four of those five also whiff over 22% of the time and Javier Baez is pushing 40%. At the end of the day, the xFIP to both sides is under 3.70 so I’m not sweating things too much. Mahle isn’t the most trustworthy based on track record, but he shouldn’t be this cheap either.
Starting Rotation 5.2 – In Play
Christian Javier – Really, the only reason Javier didn’t get a full write-up is because of the salaries of Scherzer and Giolito. In a vacuum, Javier has been lights out through four starts with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.72 FIP. He’s yet to allow a home run and the K rate is 32.9%. The WHIP is 0.82 and his hard-hit rate is just 24.4%. The slider is super interesting. I mean, he got a swing on this one and it didn’t make it to the plate –
It’s jumped from 78.6 MPH on average last year to 81.2 MPH this year and it’s been pure filth. The whiff rate is 50% and it’s yielded a .050 average. Tampa is 28th against the slider which could set him up for a great start. The small concern is Javier is worse to lefties, as the wOBA is just .270 but the FIP is 2.38. His K rate drops to 25% but the Rays are 12th in K rate at 25.1%.
Julio Urias – Call me crazy, but he’s the clear fourth option among the top four pitchers in salary (not counting Burnes, in which case Urias would be fifth). The talent is unmistakable but the results have been… not that great in three of five starts. In those three, Urias has scored under 14 DK points and given up a total of 10 earned runs. In his great starts, he’s given up just one with 17 strikeouts like this one –
The K rate for Urias is solid at 26.2% but not overwhelming compared to the other options up top. Milwaukee can bring out the best in strikeout upside to opposing pitchers but I definitely prefer others today.
Jose Berrios – Someone with the talent level of Berrios is always in play, along with his 32.4% K rate, 10.9% swinging-strike rate, and 28.9% CSW. The Royals are 14th against the curve, which is the most-used pitch for Berrios. They also whiff only 23.6% of the time so there’s some question about his ceiling. I do really like the .194 wOBA, .156 average, no home runs allowed, 36% K rate, and 1.54 FIP to the right side of the plate. After three straight very average starts, I would imagine Berrios is not going to be popular at all today.
Corey Kluber – I’m not personally playing him, but the spot can’t line up much better for him. The Tigers whiff at a top-two rate of 28.5% and Kluber sets up extremely well to the likely six lefties Detroit will use. He has a 24.4% K rate to that side of the plate and a .279 wOBA compared to a .419 mark to RHH. He’s leaning on a curve/cutter mix as his top two pitches and Detroit is 25th and 29th against those two pitches. He also generated 17 swings and misses last start, which is eye-opening. It’s a scary play and I would find the $500 for Giolito in 98/100 lineups, but with how Kluber stacks up against the weaknesses of the Tigers’ offense, I can’t take him off the board.
Starting Rotation 5.2 – Out of Play
Ian Anderson – I’m not thrilled but I would reluctantly leave Anderson out of the pool today. As long as the Jays are healthy, you can get used to the opposing pitcher not being in play. Anderson sports a 26.5% K rate which is fine, but not enough to warrant attacking Toronto in a hitter’s park. They were right about top 12 in OPS, ISO, slugging, and wOBA before George Springer came back. Perhaps Anderson can survive with his .218 wOBA to righties but I won’t be finding out myself.
Zach Plesac – It has been tough sledding for Plesac this year with just a 16.5% K rate on the season. It continues a trend where it appears the 2020 season was an aberration instead of the normal we should expect from him. The swinging-strike rate is down to 11.4% and even though he’s likely better than the 5.81 ERA (the 4.02 FIP and 3.83 xFIP look much better), I’m still not interested in a K rate that’s not over 17%. I will say his 52.9% ground ball rate could come into play heavily since the Sox lead the league in ground ball rate to righties.
Ross Stripling – He’s not confirmed for the Jays at this point and he will likely be on a fairly limited pitch count, which makes him an easy fade for Rogers and possibly Mahle.
Rich Hill – Mr. Hill was not nice to me last time out as I stacked A’s hitters and he whiffed 10. The start before that, Hill was terrible when I played him. This time, I’m on the side of stacking against him again. Houston is top-four against the fastball and Hill throws it over 41% of the time. That pitch has a .345 average, .759 slugging, and a .466 wOBA given up with just a 19.6% whiff rate. If the curve doesn’t do a lot of the work, the Astros should handle Hill and his 3.55 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 to righty hitters.
Garrett Richards – Chasing a 33 DK point game from a pitcher that has a 20.2% K rate, a 1.61 WHIP, and an 11.9% walk rate seems like a terrible idea. The Rangers strike out an awful lot but I simply can’t do it. Richards needs to show something else for me to buy into anything.
Carlos Martinez – He’s fine I suppose but just not the sale of pitcher that I play. The K rate is just 14.4% and perhaps his best metric is the lefty splits. LHH have a .244 wOBA and Martinez has a 2.34 FIP to that side of the plate. He is also generating a hard contact rate under 30% but when a pitcher heavily relies on run prevention and not strikeouts, things can go south in a hurry.
Trevor Williams – He’s a righty who is throwing a fastball almost 60% of the time and it’s not overwhelming at 91 MPH. It’s giving up a .295 average, .371 wOBA, and a .461 slugging. Oh, the Reds are the top fastball team in the league. Both sides of the plate are over .300 for the wOBA and I’m out on Williams.
Mike Foltynewicz – Sorry Stix. You’re a goat but I can’t do it against Boston. Folty has a 4.23 xFIP but the 2.63 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 12.2% barrel rate just don’t compute here.
Brad Keller – He has a 5.07 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, a 2.1% K-BB%, a massive 2.28 WHIP, and an 8.6% swinging-strike rate. Sporting a .465 wOBA to the righties when you’re facing the righty-heavy Twins seems like a terrible idea.
Will Crowe – There’s only a 13 inning sample size but Crowe has a 3.46 HR/9, a 1.5 K-BB%, 2.38 WHIP, and a 6.49 xFIP. No thank you.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
