Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.18
We have a massive 14 game slate tonight but given the size of the slate, I’m not sure we’ve had a worse pitching slate on the year. There are just some flat-out bad options tonight, so we’re going to adjust the format just a little bit. For tonight, we’re only going to talk about the main targets because these will be the only pitchers that I’m playing tonight. It doesn’t look like Starting Rotation 5.18 is the night to take a ton of chances, so let’s get our core group set and build around them for the green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.18 – Main Targets
Brandon Woodruff
Much as it was last night, I don’t think there’s a very strong case not to lock in Woodruff for cash and be very heavy on him in GPP. We just have to have faith the results will be better than Cole last night. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball period and is a clear top option on a slate where I might have eight options. The K rate is 33.2% with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate and a 32.4% CSW. Woodruff ranks eighth, 16th, and 10th in baseball in those metrics so right off the hop we have serious upside. The hard-hi rate is down under 30% and Woodruff has kept the fly-ball rate to just 32.4%. Even though his 1.64 ERA can’t stick around forever, it’s not like the 2.30 FIP and 2.69 xFIP give you much of a concern.
Every single pitch type has a whiff rate over 20% at least and the sinker is the only pitch with a wOBA over .277. If you want to argue that Woodruff has been worse to righty hitters, you are technically correct but the wOBA to that side of the plate is a whopping .221. The K rate to both sides is over 30% and even though the Royals sit at just 23.4% as a team, it’s not enough to get away from Woodruff tonight.
Zack Wheeler
Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB –
I don’t think I’ll be jamming him into a double ace approach, as Wheeler has not been that reliable, 20+ DK point player every start. He’s certainly shown flashes but has been under 20 DK more times than not this year. Still, he does draw a strong matchup. The K rate is up to 26.1% so far this year which would be a career-high.
One facet that is helping push that along is he’s flipped his pitch usage. Last season, the sinker was his second pitch and the slider was third. This year, the slider has taken over and the four-seam/slider combo has combined for 42 of 56 strikeouts.
Almost everything in the profile has gotten stronger for Wheeler, and even metrics that went a little backward aren’t bad at all. The 28.4% fly-ball rate is up from last season but certainly nothing to fear. Likewise, the hard-hit rate is barely over 28% and he’s finding the zone with more consistency, up from 53.2% in 2020 to 58.4% this year. Both sides of the plater are at a .285 wOBA or lower and the Marlins are split at four of each hitter in their normal lineup. They also rank sixth in K rate to righties at 26.3% and are 28th in OPS, ISO, and wOBA. Wheeler is a strong play and honestly is even better than normal on this particular slate.
Lance Lynn
I’m always a touch leery on pitchers against the same team twice in a row, but Lynn is the kind of guy that can survive it. He just got this same Twins lineup for 30 DK points and his salary only went up by $600. Lynn threw 111 pitches which is one of his calling cards and he whiffed nine batters. He’s the odd pitcher in multiple ways as he’s getting a 36.1% whiff rate on his four-seam and it has 26 strikeouts out of 44 total. It’s weird to see that since he throws some variation of the fastball 98% of the time and there’s not many that can do that, especially with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate. How can you not like this guy?
Lynn is a good candidate to go up against the Twins as they have five righties and some very questionable lefties. To the right side of the plate, Lynn has a .190 wOBA and a .425 OPS to go along with his 37.8% K rate. Lefties are better but still have a 23.9% K rate and just a .266 wOBA. Lynn has a fly-ball rate that is a little concerning at 47.1% but it was over 42% last season and he’s thriving with it.
Cristian Javier
I didn’t even love the matchup last time for Javier and he ground out seven strong innings for 18 DK points. This one is a bit better for him as the A’s do typically feature 3-4 lefties, but their best slider hitters are lefties. That’s vital for Javier, as his slider is would be tied for sixth in the majors if he qualified. It’s generated a .126 wOBA, 53.3% whiff rate, and 22 of 44 strikeouts. He’s only thrown seven to lefties all year and the A’s only have Matt Chapman that rates well against that pitch. The first time around he scored 26 DK against this A’s offense –
Overall, Javier has a 29.1% K rate himself and Oakland is sitting at 24%. The righty for the Astros has generated a 12.2% swinging-strike rate so far and has just a 30% hard-hit rate. Generally, the better hitters for Oakland are on the right side and that will work out nicely for Javier if these splits keep up. The .215 wOBA to righties is excellent, as is the .457 OPS and the 36.6% K rate. The salary is finally down to where I feel more comfortable in playing him.
Andrew Heaney
This might not be the biggest strikeout spot on paper, as the Cleveland offense only whiffs 20.6% of the time to lefty pitching. That may not be the most important aspect since Heaney is rolling into this start with a 33.6% K rate, which would be in the top 10 if he qualified. In years past, Heaney was always unreliable and that’s what the results would tell you this year. However, his 4.75 ERA doesn’t match the 2.95 xFIP at all and we notice the 20.6% HR/FB rate. That’s 5% higher than his career rate and Cleveland is only 18th in ISO to lefty pitching this season.
What is super interesting is the curve may not be the biggest key to this start for Heaney. Of the 444 total pitches he’s thrown to righty hitters, only 86 have been the curve. The changeup has been thrown 121 times and only Jose Ramirez is anything but terrible against that pitch with a 0.8 rating on FanGraphs. Cleveland could play eight righty hitters and the change has a 29.9% whiff rate with a .264 wOBA. Heaney is also sporting a 36.9% K rate to righty hitters along with a 2.31 xFIP. He’s been much better than it may appear and this could be one of those starts where it all comes together.
J.T. Brubaker
This may well be as low as I’m willing to go tonight, as the bottom rung is tough. Brubaker has emerged as the “ace” for the Bucs along with Tyler Anderson, just how they drew it up in the offseason. One of the first metrics I look at with pitchers against the Cardinals is how they fare to the right side of the plate. St. Louis typically runs out five plus the pitcher spot (and Matt Carpenter as a lefty doesn’t count for a whole lot) and Brubaker is…tough to gauge. The .334 wOBA and .758 OPS are concerning but there are metrics to support some poor luck so far.
Not only is the BABIP to that side .327, but the HR/FB rate is also 27.3%. Neither of those marks will hold up and the 2.97 xFIP helps draw that conclusion. The K rate to that side of the plate is his best at 26.7% and the slider is his best strikeout pitch with 20 of 41 and a 37.6% whiff rate. Every pitch but his sinker has at least a 26.3% whiff rate and with Brubaker sporting a 25.5% rate on his own, he makes plenty of sense at this salary.
Honorable Mention – These talented pitchers are in play in theory, but they are all in some pretty tough spots and I’m not likely to play them – Julio Urias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea, and Michael Pineda. They all have easy-to-use pivots that we talked about.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
