Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.13
Thursday brings us the normal split slate but please do note the early slate starts at 12:20 PM, which is earlier than normal. The slate gives us five games to pick from while the evening gives us six for a total of 11 all day. The full breakdown will be in the early slate, so let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 5.13 to lay our foundation for both slates!
Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Targets
Jack Flaherty – Past one poor start in miserable conditions on Opening Day, Flaherty has pitched like a bona fide ace. One fairly significant change from the 2020 season is he’s using his four-seam/slider combo about 80% of the time, up from roughly 74%. If you’re playing Flaherty, that’s what you want to see because those pitches have combined for 38 of 42 strikeouts, have a wOBA under .300, and both have a whiff rate over 18% (the slider is 38.8%).
Milwaukee is still sporting a top-five K rate to righty pitching and Flaherty is just under 26% with a 0.94 WHIP and 0.65 HR/9. Perhaps the most encouraging thing is he’s putting out these performances despite the K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW all down from last year by about 3%. Both the four-seam and the curve (his third pitch) are down 8-10% on whiff rate so if he can get those pitches working for more swings and misses, lookout. He has both sides of the plate down under .260 for the wOBA and even though the K rate to lefties is 19.2%, he should face more RHH than lefties today.
Corbin Burnes – If we knew he was 100% and ready to go he would be the clear number one. Burnes was asymptomatic while he was out with Covid, so he has been working out and throwing. Still, the Brewers could be careful with him. He could react differently in a game environment as athletes with Covid is still uncharted waters for the most part. Not everyone reacts the same, so there is uncertainty and there is no discount given today. I think we let the projected popularity guide us. If he’s popular, we need to eat it in cash.
After all, if Burnes is right he has a 45.4% K rate, zero walks, a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, and a 38.2% CSW. All of those three strikeout metrics would rank second if he still qualified and he has the best-ranked cutter in all of baseball. Here’s a reminder of what that looks like –
Burnes also has righties on total lockdown with a .160 wOBA, .363 OPS, and a 56.6% K rate. The Cardinals typically throw out seven of them and if Burnes even goes five innings, he could score over 20 DK points.
Michael Pineda – I could see not many looking at Pineda after the White Sox went bonkers last night, but remember that the White Sox can struggle to righties and still lead the league in ground ball rate at 52.2%. The lineup is important since they should put five righties out there today. That would be a nice bump for Pineda since he’s better to righties at a .230 wOBA, .175 average, and a 48.9% ground ball rate. The 27.9% K rate to that side of the plate certainly isn’t a bad thing either. Chicago is second against the slider and 13 against the fastball, so the pitch mix data for Pineda isn’t super strong but the slider is also his best pitch. He’s only yielding a .217 wOBA and it has 17 of 32 strikeouts on the season. Pitching is dicey for the early slate, so I’m more willing to go to Pineda than I would normally be.
Daniel Lynch – Let’s be 1,000% clear – this is a GPP ONLY PLAY and only if you’re bold. Detroit has done more damage than we’ve been accustomed to the past few days, and Lynch is coming off getting hammered by the White Sox. I still firmly believe he deserved better in the first start against Cleveland and Chicago is tough for any lefty to navigate. Right now, Lynch is suffering through a .455 BABIP and has more walks than strikeouts. His metrics look awful, I won’t even try to hide it. This is belief in the toolkit with a four-seam that is averaging 95 MPH and a slider that has a 44.4% whiff rate so far. If he can’t get it done against Detroit with their seasonal metrics against lefties, I’ll let him be for now.
Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early In-Play
Lance Lynn – It’s not a particularly easy matchup, but Lynn always seems to get it done and he’s one of the few pitchers you can bank on throwing 90-100 pitches basically every time out. The K rate has jumped up to 29.9% and that would be a career-best, in part due to the four-seam jumping up 5% in whiff rate and racking up 22 strikeouts already. Lynn is also tougher to righties with a .213 wOBA and a 34.4% K rate, which works out since Minnesota typically plays six.
Zach Eflin – He is interesting today, but not a pitcher I typically get along with if I’m being honest. The K rate isn’t anything to write home about at 23.1% but he’s hardly walking anyone at 1.6% and the hard-hit rate is only 23.4%. Eflin is fastball heavy at almost 55% and that could be an issue with Washington being 12th against that pitch, but he’s surviving pretty well with his mix. The 2.59 FIP would support the 3.38 ERA being real, especially with a 3.22 xFIP as well. I can’t say I’m in love but we only have 10 options to he checks in as a fine one.
Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Out of Play
Charlie Morton – I loved him last time out as was rewarded with absolutely nothing. It’s honestly a little tough to put the finger on what exactly is going on with Morton. The curveball is the most thrown pitch and boasts a whiff rate over 44%, while only giving up a .237 wOBA. His xFIP is 3.58 compared to a 4.98 ERA and his hard-hit rate is only 23.4% but the HR/FB rate is over 19%. I’m not sure facing Toronto is what I want to chase if you’re having issues keeping the ball in the park as the 1.31 HR/9 for Morton would be his worst since 2010. The Jays are top 10 in ISO and Morton has suddenly turned into a reverse splits pitcher, getting smacked by righties.
Patrick Corbin – Now that Corbin has shown weakness, he’s quickly becoming my Jon Lester. He frustrated the Yankees last start with six fine innings, but only scored 9.1 DK points. The metrics remain just terrible, as every pitch has already given up at least two home runs. He’s throwing the sinker about 30% and it is simply getting destroyed with four bombs, a .572 wOBA, .935 slugging, and just two strikeouts. The top four in the Philly order are Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins. The top three have wOBA’s over .450 and ISO’s over .310. Hoskins “only” has a .399 wOBA and .205 ISO against that pitch. I won’t be looking at Corbin at all.
Ross Stripling – The results have been a little worse than expected so far with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 6.61 ERA and the .404 BABIP is helping that along. Still, Stripling isn’t exactly doing anything well enough to challenge the Braves. The K rate isn’t even 22% and the HR/9 is 1.65 despite just a 27.3% hard-hit rate. Righties have utterly crushed him with a .525 wOBA, 1.255 OPS, and a 6.97 xFIP.
Spencer Turnbull – The big bats for the Royals are mostly on the right side and Turnbull is giving up a .365 wOBA and only carrying a 10% K rate to that side of the plate. With an overall K rate of under 18%, it’s fairly easy to just stay out of this range of pitching.
Starting Rotation 5.13 – Evening Slate
Cristian Javier
The pricing continues to be questionable on Javier, but I’m still interested. Now, the question becomes how interested because this is not a perfect spot for him. Texas does continue to lead or sit in a virtual tie for the highest K rate to righty pitching in baseball. However, the lineup facing Javier might lead to some shakiness from the Houston righty if his splits continue. Not only do lefties have a .330 wOBA against him, but the K rate also slips down to 22.8% compared to 37.3% to righties. Texas has an everyday lineup of four lefties, though three of them are over 24% in K rate.
My largest fear with Javier is his slider is his best pitch and it’s not particularly close. He’s throwing it about 25% and it has only given up a .098 average, .122 wOBA, whiffed 20 hitters, and carries a 56.7% whiff rate. No other pitch is over 23.3%.
The issue stems from he just doesn’t throw it to lefty hitters. Javier has only utilized it seven times all season to lefties. When four hitters nullify the pitcher’s best weapon, it makes me a little nervous. I think he’s still one of the better arms on the slate overall, but that speaks more to the slate being rough for pitching.
Trevor Rogers
I wonder how the field reacts to Rogers because this is one of his tougher challenges on the season. Arizona is no worse than third in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching. They’re doing that while only striking out 20.8% and walking 10.7%, both top-seven marks. Even average is eighth for them so they are one of the most dangerous offenses in the game to lefty pitching. Rogers has found about 2 MPH on his four-seam and it has 35 of his 50 strikeouts so far with a 33% whiff rate. He’s throwing it over 62% of the time which helps explain the 33.1% K rate and the 16.5% swinging-strike rate.
He’s dominating righties with a .250 wOBA and a .178 average. It’s funny because it’s been lefty hitters that have done some damage with a .346 wOBA so far but the BABIP is .438 so I don’t think we have much reason to think that stays. His changeup is still a weapon as well since it has the eighth-best ranking for FanGraphs and a 37.5% whiff rate. All in all, I like Rogers but this is not a cakewalk. He’s pitched well against good offenses before, but the price doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error.
Zach Plesac
This play has all the makings of me cautiously starting to think Plesac is turning things around only to see him get smacked. He’s hit six and seven strikeouts in his past two starts, but the K rate is still under 20% for the season. Considering it went up to 27.7% last year, we need to explore why and it doesn’t take long to figure it out. His slider and change aren’t generating nearly the whiff rate they did in 2020. Last season, they were 42.7% and 35.6% each and this season they’ve plummeted to 28.6% and 16%. Needless to say, the difference is stark.
When we look at the past two games, we can see the secondary pitches have started to look a little better.
This game was from May 2nd, and the changeup got up to a 27% whiff rate. Sure, the slider was not working for him that day but at least something else was getting swings and misses.
Likewise, the start after that saw the changeup not work out but the slider was up to 43% and the change at least got some called strikes. The overall arc here is the strikeouts have started to come back a little bit when there’s been a pattern of whiff rate starting to creep up towards 2020 levels. On top of all that, there’s this nugget as well –
There’s certainly no guarantee that happens tonight, but it’s at least a step in the right direction with Seattle being a top 10 team in K rate. Plesac will face six righties in the normal Seattle lineup and they do have the better success, but both sides of the plate are under a .295 wOBA. The HR/FB rate to righties is 21.1% which is driving the 1.77 HR/9. It’s not the best spot per se, but what is on the evening slate?
Logan Gilbert
Major League Debut
You guys know me well enough to know that Gilbert was going to be in the main write-up. He and fellow Mariner Jarred Kelenic (who at $2,000 cannot hurt you in your lineup tonight, a worthy punt) are both making their debut tonight. The scouting report on Gilbert says he’s an advanced young pitcher, with potentially four “plus” offerings in a fastball that hovers around 93-95 MPH, a slider, a curve, and a changeup.
The minor league track record suggests big potential K upside for the big righty as well. He’s never been lower than a 28.7% K rate in any season pitched and has been split about being a fly-ball or ground ball pitcher. It likely settles in as fine, if maybe not that great. The pitch mix spot looks excellent as Cleveland is in the bottom-eight against three of his four pitches. They are also inside the top 10 in K rate at almost 25% and are below average in wOBA and wRC+. The bottom line is at $4,000 with Coors Field on the slate, we can take some shots but it will almost certainly be GPP only.
Honorable Mention – Sean Manaea, Mike Foltynewicz
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
