Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.12
We have another 10 games on the slate for Wednesday night, and some big-name aces take the mound tonight. The middle and lower tiers of salary don’t represent nearly the same options as they did yesterday, so I would expect the heavy chalk continues. Let’s get into the ace candidates and see what else we can find in the Starting Rotation 5.12 to lay the foundation for our green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.12 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
The last start from Cole may not have been dazzling, but it’s tough to strike out the Astros in general and it only gets tougher when the strike zone is the size of a postage stamp. Tampa is 10th in K rate at 25% and even with just four strikeouts in the last game, Cole is still over 40% for his K rate. Only Jacob deGrom has a higher rate among qualified pitchers, and Cole has his walk down to 1.8% so far. If you want to get on base, he makes you earn it with a 29.8% hard-hit rate and a 33.8% CSW. The 14.9% swinging-strike rate is down from last year to 14.9% but is still ninth in the league.
The FIP/xFIP combo is incredible at 1.29/2.10 and Cole has the HR/9 down to just 0.60 after getting tagged for a 1.73 mark last season. Both sides of the plate are under a .235 wOBA and both whiff at least 33.7% of the time. Lefties are the side that strikes out the most and it’s partly because Cole uses his changeup second-most to lefties. That pitch has a 42.4% whiff rate and 15 strikeouts already. Not too shabby for a pitch Cole hardly threw last year. There’s little reason to not lock up Cole in cash and be heavy in GPP.
Brandon Woodruff
On the last slate, Woodruff was only about 40% in cash games and I won’t be surprised if that goes up tonight. Through seven starts, Woodruff is sporting a K rate of 32.5%, a WHIP of 0.77, the HR/9 is down at 0.43, his barrel rate is 3.2%, and the ground ball rate is 45.1%. I’m not sure what more he could be doing at this point. Of the 51 strikeouts, 32 have come from the four-seam and it’s exciting to see the Cards ranked so low against that pitch. I’m not sure any team would rank well against this heater –
The 30% whiff rate is very good for a fastball and it’s helping along with the 13.2% swinging-strike rate. Woodruff is slightly worse to righties but that’s still great by most pitchers metrics, as the wOBA is .225 and the K rate is 29.3%. With the Cardinals still featuring a top 10 K rate to righty pitching, Woodruff is a natural fit into any format tonight.
Danny Duffy
Brady Singer’s implosion aside, I’m not going to stop targeting Detroit bats and certainly not with lefties. Duffy had his “worst” start of the season last time out but it certainly wasn’t horrible and he’s already posted a 28.9 DK score on this Tigers offense. He’s seen a velocity increase and is leaning more on the four-seam/slider combo, which is working in a big way. Those two pitches have 32 of his 40 strikeouts on the season and his K rate is 28%, pretty easily a career-high number. His HR/9 is all the way down at 0.50 and even though the xFIP is 3.71 compared to a 1.26 ERA, it’s not so bad that I’m worried about Duffy.
Detroit is still over 35% in K rate to lefties and is dead last in all of our offensive categories. If Brian or Ghost threw left-handed, I’d trot them out there if they were under $5,000. Duffy has righties down at a .246 wOBA, .539 OPS, and a 26.8% K rate. All of that is coming with a BABIP over .300 on top of it. There is still a bit of a shock factor to see Duffy at $8,900 but these three are my top three on the board and in a tier of their own to my eyes.
Julio Urias
Urias has been a bit of a frustrating pitcher to play, but the Mariners wouldn’t know that because he hung 40 DK on them earlier this season. That’s not to say I expect that result again, but when Urias is on, he’s almost unhittable. The K rate has never been higher at 27.2% and the walk rate has dropped down to 3.6% compared to a career mark of 8.2%. One of the reasons seems to be the willingness to throw the curve and change a little more than last season, was those two pitches have 30 of 46 strikeouts for Urias this season. What better way to learn about his curve (or should I say slurve) than the man himself –
The curve leads the way and comes with a .150 wOBA and .125 average. The biggest issue is honestly the four-seam, as it is allowing a .373 average and .454 wOBA. If Urias can get that under control, it’s going to be a tough road for the Mariners. It theoretically helps him that they are bottom-three to that pitch, as well. He has a 31.7% CSW and a 13.6% swinging-strike rate while Seattle matches with a 29.2% K rate to lefties. Oddly, they sit sixth in ISO but 26th in OPS, 25th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. I’m perfectly willing to go with Urias tonight.
Hyun Jin Ryu
The struggles for Atlanta against lefty pitching mostly continued last night, as they only mustered three runs against Robbie Ray (who needs some looser pants) while whiffing 10 times. Aside from solo shots from Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna, it was a quiet night and we chronicled the struggles to lefties yesterday. Ryu has that K rate climbing back up and is over 24% while the walk rate is down to 3%, all the while rocking a 1.10 WHIP. On top of that, he’s sporting a 48.4% ground ball rate and a 24% hard-hit rate which is what we’re after. His swinging-strike rate and CSW are both up from last year too, which is very encouraging.
It would appear the righty splits are a worry, and perhaps the 1.44 HR/9 and .325 wOBA do prove to be an issue. However, the BABIP to that side is .324 and the HR/FB rate is almost 18%. Both of those numbers are very high and Atlanta just cannot figure out lefties so far this year. I believe Ryu is GPP only, but this slate doesn’t strike me as one to spend down on pitching. Ryu may well be as low as I would go in salary tonight.
Starting Rotation 5.12 – In Play
Zack Wheeler – At least as far as results go, Wheeler has been the ultimate GPP pitcher this season. He’s got seven starts under his belt and three of them have scored more than 35 DK and the other four haven’t crossed 14.4. That’s quite a roller coaster. Wheeler is sitting on his four-seam over 46% of the time and it does have a .293 wOBA against it. That’s not terrible, but could explain some inconsistency, especially when the slider is being used half the time but has a lower wOBA by almost .100 points and a 34% whiff rate.
The Washington lineup is healthy but so far have only produced the 26th wOBA and 27th wRC+ to righty pitching. With Wheelers sporting a K rate of 26.8% and only a .279 wOBA to righties (there could be 5-6 in the Nationals lineup), he’s absolutely in play. Just know the results have been wild so far.
Zac Gallen – This might be the first time Gallen hasn’t been a main target and that’s just due o my confidence in the big three tonight. The matchup is excellent, as Miami is bottom 10 against his main pitch mix of the four-seam/change/curve, so the pitch data is in his favor. The Fish are also striking out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball to righties, so maybe we see a little ceiling from Gallen here. There’s really only been one since he’s only been above 20 DK points once and he got a CGSO bonus in that one. The 27.8% K rate plays, but the walk rate of 12.2% isn’t helping right now. There’s a reason he’s only made it through six innings twice out of five starts, and he’s only made it through four twice as well. I feel much more confident in the length of others, but Gallen is indeed too talented to keep pitching five or so average innings.
Starting Rotation 5.12 – Out of Play
Andrew Heaney – This might be a little harsh, but I don’t see much of a reason to test the Astros lineup with Heaney at this salary with the options around him. Of the seven top-salaried pitchers, Heaney would be number seven for me. Now, I have to give him credit for facing Houston once already and generating 30+ DK points so you can argue that he’s the ultimate GPP play. His curve is considered his best weapon after his four-seam, and with a 40% whiff rate that’s likely accurate. What’s interesting is he throws the changeup more to righty hitters than the curve. That pitch is giving up the highest average and slugging of his three pitches, but the Astros are bottom-five against it. The only individual hitters that have a rating over 1.0 are Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman. Houston also doesn’t strike out to lefties with just an 18.4% rate, so Heaney getting them for 10 strikeouts again seems unlikely. If you play MME, you could have some exposure but overall, I do like others better and won’t be using him myself.
Eduardo Rodriguez – He’s started to come back to Earth just slightly and has a rather tough spot here. Oakland continues to be top 10 in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to lefties but they do whiff 25.1% of the time. The A’s are a mixed bag to the main two pitches for E-Rod, sitting 14th against the fastball and 22nd against the changeup. Rodriguez is flirting with a 25% K rate but the HR/9 is the highest it’s ever been for him at 1.36 and that is a concern. Sporting a .342 wOBA, .800 OPS, and a 4.27 FIP to righties isn’t particularly exciting and I’ll be passing on him tonight.
Jose Urquidy – This one is honestly short and sweet, as Urquidy is under an 18% K rate and has a fall-ball rate over 47%. He makes that work for real baseball for the most part, but also has a 4.85 xFIP and that’s a big worry. He also has a .341 wOBA with a 1.90 HR/9 to the right side of the plate, and both the FIP and xFIP are over 5.00. The Angels should have six righties in the lineup and they whiff at the seventh-lowest rate in baseball to righties.
J.A. Happ – Through five starts, Happ has only generated a 14.7% K rate with a 6.8% swinging-strike rate and a 21.8% CSW. The xFIP to righties is 5.68 and overall, the ERA of 1.91 combined with a 5.39 xFIP just doesn’t work together. No pitch is over a 20.4% whiff rate and Chicago smacks lefty pitching. They are first in wRC+ and no worse than 11th in any of our categories, not to mention a 21.4% K rate. The White Sox are likely to be my prime stack of the evening.
Ryan Yarbrough – I have no particular interest in a lefty that has a 17.8% K rate against the Yankees. Now, he may be fine for real baseball with a 0.48 HR/9, 3.3% barrel rate, and only a 33.1% fly-ball rate but that doesn’t mean we have to go there for fantasy. The Yanks are fourth in OPS, second in ISO, and ninth in OBP against lefty pitching this year with a K rate under 20%.
John Gant – I know the Brewers strike out at a top-five rate and generally can’t hit, but Gant is so difficult to be interested in. His K rate is 18.7% and the walk rate is 17.9% and the 2.15 ERA looks way out of place compared to a 4.40 FIP and 5.27 xFIP. Both sides of the plater are over a .300 wOBA with lefties hitting him better and he’s upside-down in K-BB rate to lefties.
Jon Lester – I let Brian handle this spot, go read Picks and Pivots (which you should be doing every day anyway).
Justin Dunn – I continue to be intrigued by some of the metrics but with a sky-high walk rate of 15.3% and a 6.20 xFIP, this isn’t the game to try and figure him out. Lefties have been a real issue with a .382 wOBA, .863 OPS, and a 2.38 HR/9. That’s all with a .179 BABIP so the issues aren’t going to get better from that facet.
Nick Neidert – Did I mention tonight isn’t a night to spend down on pitching? The Marlins righty has more walks than strikeouts, a 7.39 xFIP, and through 32 lefties faced, he’s given up a .5050 wOBA, .391 average, and the WHIP is 3.40. Oh my.
Max Fried – I honestly thought about putting him in play, and maybe he should be there for MME players. His xFIP is only 3.82 and Fried is certainly talented. Additionally, Toronto has not hit their stride against lefties so far as they are average across the board to that handedness. I stopped short since Fried has a .516 wOBA, 1.200+ OPS, and a 3.00 HR/9 to righties. The FIP to that side is 6.85 alone. Fried has been dealing with some injuries and does have a 24.1% K rate which helped him get through a start against Washington. I’m just a little too concerned and would rather find a punt bat or two to get to the better pitching.
Dallas Keuchel – I’m not sure if I’ve played Keuchel more than about five times in the past four seasons or so. It won’t change tonight with a 10.9% K rate. Get all the ground balls you want. Eventually, you have to have some strikeout upside. The ceiling is likely 12-15 DK and that’s if he goes 6-7 innings deep.
Casey Mize – I want so badly to play him, and I just can’t get behind what he’s putting onto the field. Mize was passable against Boston, which could be a good sign but the K rate is still just 16.3% and the walk rate is just about 10%. Kansas City has the sixth-lowest ground ball rate, so I’m not sure the 55% rate from Mize shines through. He is better to righties with a .301 wOBA so maybe he replicates the last start against Boston. That still only scored 12.7 DK and the floor is much lower.
James Kaprielian – Oakland has not confirmed this move, but the guess is this is the starter for tonight. Kaprielian is a 27-year old righty with 3.2 IP at the major league level, which isn’t super encouraging. He has shown some strikeout ability with rates over 24% and as high as 33% at almost every stop, but there’s a reason he’s this old with so little experience. I’m no looking to throw him in against the Red Sox.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
