Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.1
The Saturday slate is split up as usual and DK has the better game selection for the afternoon slate, which is pretty normal. We’ll be doing the notes-based approach to the afternoon slate and then diving more in-depth into the six-game evening slate. With a total of 22 pitchers from start to finish, let’s get rolling on Starting Rotation 5.1 and start laying our foundation for success!
Starting Rotation 5.1 – Afternoon Options
In Play
Lance Lynn – There is always some small concern in the back of my mind when pitchers come back from arm injuries. Now, it does help that in Lynn’s case that he could have returned right away after the minimum 10-day stint on the IL so I don’t believe there is reason to worry much. Lynn uses a variety of fastballs and Cleveland is 23rd against four-seams, which is the most-used pitch from Lynn. Even though it’s last year, it’s still fun to watch –
I don’t fully buy into Lynn’s 35.1% K rate but even last year’s 25.9% isn’t a terrible number. The hard-hit rate is only 22.9% for Lynn and the splits are pretty even to each side of the plate. He’s easily the best “on paper” option on DK since Cleveland whiffs 25.7% of the time, while FD offers an alternative in Jack Flaherty. Given the difference in salary, I expect Flaherty to be much more popular on that site.
Danny Duffy – So the matchup is certainly less than ideal but Duffy has been so good that I don’t think I could leave him out of the pool. Minnesota is still whiffing 25.1% to lefty pitching and Duffy has a 29.7% K rate on the season. He’s throwing the fastball more and it’s picked up velocity, sitting at just about 94 MPH. In total, 15 of his 24 strikeouts have come from that pitch and even though the Twins are fourth against that pitch, Duffy could still handle the lineup. They are 27th against the slider, which could help Duffy keep them off-balance. He’s also been at his best to RHH with a .228 wOBA but I would only use him in GPP since the Twins are built to be lefty mashers.
Jesus Luzardo – He did just face this team and posted a very respectable start, and the Orioles statistically do not look imposing to lefty pitching. They’re top 10 in K rate and below average in our offensive categories. It’s also interesting to note that the Orioles are the worst team against the changeup. Luzardo doesn’t throw it a ton at just 18.6% but it’s sporting the best wOBA allowed of any pitch, under .250. The 26.1% K rate is nice for this salary range and his xFIP is only 4.05 compared to a 5.40 ERA. The .343 BABIP certainly looks out of place for him. Through his 15.2 IP at home, the ERA is only 4.02 and his K rate shoots up to 29.9%. Certainly, it’s not a large sample but it’s interesting to see if that continues.
Jameson Taillon – I find myself gravitating towards him. The ERA will freak you out at 6.23 but the 3.78 xFIP shows there is a fairly large gap between performance so far and the results. The BABIP is .348 and the fly ball rate is 52% but the K rate is 28.4% and the walk rate is just 2.7%. We all were reminded last night how the Tigers are strikeout machines.
The wOBA to LHH looks like a major sticking point at .399 since the Tigers can throw out six lefties. However, the BABIP to that side is .474 and the xFIP is 2.85. Even better for Taillon is the 33.3% K rate to that side of the plate. It’s not a perfect play but the upside is palpable and this is the easiest matchup the righty has had thus far.
Matt Harvey – We’ll stick right in this game and it could be time to get on board the Matt Harvey Train again. You’re not likely to get a lot of strikeouts but Harvey is throwing a four-seam/sinker combo about 62% of the time. Oakland is 25th against the fastball this season and should trot out six RHH. If you remember the last time we had Harvey, the wOBA looks awful at .363 to that side of the plate but the BABIP is .400. The FIP of 2.96 and xFIP of 3.36 tell a different story. The K rate also jumps up to 21.1% and Oakland is pushing 25% as a team in whiff rate. The true factor will never be there with Harvey at this point, but the metrics make sense again.
Jose Urquidy – He’s frankly not super interesting to me at his salary but on a short slate he’s certainly in play. Urquidy is using the fastball/slider combo at about 77% of the time so far but only getting a 19.5% K rate. Tampa has almost a 25% K rate and is right in the middle of the league in the offensive categories. With Urquidy leaning on the fastball 55% of the time, it’s not great to see Tampa in the top-eight against that pitch. To his advantage, LHH have struggled so far with a .278 wOBA, .209 average, and a 24.5% K rate. I likely end up elsewhere but the matchup could certainly be a lot worse.
Out of Play
Josh Fleming – Much like Ryan Yarbrough last night, I just don’t like playing lefties when the Astros offense is healthy as they are right now. Maybe Fleming gets through this game with his ground ball rate of 56.8% but the 13.8% K rate doesn’t offer much comfort. The 4.44 xFIP compared to the 1.23 ERA doesn’t scream he’s a play we should like either, frankly. Houston is fifth against the fastball and Fleming is using it about 48% of the time. I’ll give the lefty credit for generating a .211 wOBA to righties but that could end in a hurry today.
Spencer Turnbull – The Yankee hitters are waking up quickly, so I won’t go there myself. The fly ball tendencies (48.1%) are scary although I do have to say Turnbull has always been better to RHH, and that’s the case early. They have a .168 wOBA compared to the .311 wOBA for the lefties.
Triston McKenzie – I really want to put him in play because I think the talent level is excellent, but the metrics simply won’t allow it at this point. I’ll put the caveat that things could change for him quickly but he’s been a bit of a mess so far this season. The FIP/xFIP combo are both over 5.10, the HR/9 is 2.16 and the walk rate is unreal at 18.9%. The fly balls have to really worry you at 61.1% but there are a couple of things that could save him. First, the White Sox continue to lead the league in ground ball rate to righty pitching and they lead by 4.1%. It’s not a close race right now.
Secondly, despite some pretty apparent struggles, McKenzie does have a K rate over 31% and the swinging strike rate is 13.3%, up from last season. The biggest issue so far is the fastball. It has a .402 wOBA and a .487 slugging allowed. It’s down to 91 MPH but McKenzie also has 13 strikeouts with it. Chicago is eighth against the fastball, which is tough for McKenzie. He does have a .249 wOBA to RHH (and a .485 mark to LHH) so I don’t think I’d play him. It is not the easiest call because things could change for him very quickly. At some point, pitchers with stuff like this tend to figure it out and the K rate beckons –
Luis Castillo – It will bite me on a slate, but I refuse to play Castillo until we see some sign of life from him. The sinker continues to just get obliterated with a .500 average, .885 slugging, and a .611 wOBA. You can’t trust a pitcher who throws that pitch almost 22% of the time. The wOBA for the Chicago lineup against righty sinkers isn’t exactly encouraging for him either.
Matt Shoemaker – There’s nothing good to be had about his 5.11 xFIP, 2.29 HR/9, 16.1% K rate, and the 9.7% swinging-strike rate. My lone fear about playing Royals is Shoemaker has controlled RHH to the tune of a .231 wOBA and a 0.79 HR/9. Even then, the BABIP to that side is .161 and the xFIP is 5.01.
Patrick Corbin – He has one good start out of four and is still sporting an 8.36 FIP, 17.1% K rate, and a 12.2% walk rate. RHH are tagging him for a .505 wOBA, 1.200+ OPS, 4.50 HR/9, and a 10.17 FIP. I’ll head right back to some Marlins hitters.
Paul Campbell – He’s likely limited to 3-4 innings by all accounts, which isn’t great. My larger issue is the fact that he’s never had a K rate above 20.5% once he’s hit A-level baseball. That doesn’t lead me to think we should take the chance, even at the salary.
Zach Davies – He rolls into this start with (still) more walks than strikeouts, a 6.24 xFIP, a 7.3% swinging-strike rate, and a fastball that’s under 88 MPH. No thank you, and if he beats me, he beats me on this one.
Starting Rotation 5.1 – Main Slate
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700 DK/$9,500 FD)
We have a fun slate for pitching at the top where there’s not an “ace” in the exact sense, but quite a few starters that could produce ace-level stats. For me, it’s starting with E-Rod and I assumed he’d be over $9,000 in this spot. The face DK hasn’t put him up there helps us out, since he gets to face the Rangers. They sit 12th in K rate to lefty pitching and are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. E-Rod is pitching to a 29.2% K rate with just a 2.2% walk rate, which is quite impressive. He’s 13th in K-BB% (and we have one pitcher higher in that metric on this slate) and is keeping the hard contact under 25%. If Rodriguez kept these metrics up for the season, it would be a career year for him. The xFIP has never been below 3.90 for him and right now it’s sitting at 2.82. Price included on DK, he’s my favorite option.
Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK/$9,000 FD
Gallen is really nipping at the heels of E-Rod for my favorite option on the slate and he may have found his rhythm last start, posting 34 DK points against the Braves offense. He’s crazy talented and has a 0.54 HR/9 through his first 16.2 IP to go with a 29.9% K rate. The walk rate is high at 11.9% but coming off an injury I’m no overly worked up about that. The 12.5% swinging-strike rate is dead in line with his career average and Gallen has been throwing the fastball more this season.
In 2020, the four-seam was only thrown 39% and so far in 2021, it’s at 51%. I can’t blame him since it has half of his 20 strikeouts and just a .130 slug, .218 wOBA, and a 27.5% whiff rate.
To the surprise of nobody, the Rockies offense continues to be hideous on the road to righties. They’re whiffing at a top-six rate of 28.4% and are bottom 10 in our offensive categories. Both sides of the plate are at a .223 wOBA or lower and Gallen could be the most popular option on the slate. Pairing him with Rodriguez already looks like a ton of fun.
Dustin May ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD)
It may give some pause to see the Brewers ranked so high against the fastball but not too many move like this –
I will also admit to some bats here – I’ve always been on the wrong end of May. If I fade him, he scores 29.7 DK points and whiffs 10. If I play him, he scores 13 against the Rockies in LA. Still, he is higher than E-Rod in K-BB% and sits sixth in the majors in that category. May is also ninth in total K rate at 37.2%. That’s a monstrous jump from the 19.6% last year but his stuff is so nasty, I’m inclined to think it’s a real jump. The swinging-strike rate going from 8.4% to 14.1% would back me up on that as well. Milwaukee sitting as a top-five K rate team to RHP seems like just the right spot for May to continue his K rate prowess.
Looking at that pitch mix gives us some ideas about why May has exploded in K rate. He’s throwing the sinker 11% less and he bumped the curve usage by about 9%. That curve has been filth with 14 strikeouts (no other pitch has more than seven), no hits allowed, and a 46.2% whiff rate.
Seeing the Brewers rank next to last against that pitch is heaven. The Crew might throw out five lefties and that’s just going to play into May’s strength as he sports a 45.5% K rate to that side. Like I said, the top of the pitching pool tonight is a blast.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,100 DK/$9,200 FD)
Oh, look, we have Woodruff on the slate as well! He’s sitting 11th in xFIP at 2.87 and the funny part of that is, that mark is still the third-worst on the slate behind E-Rod and May. Woodruff has not allowed a homer yet and has a 1.5% barrel rate, second-best in baseball. Not surprisingly, the hard-hit rate is 27.7% and his K rate has sustained over 31% like it did last season. It needs to be said that the Dodgers haven’t exactly been scary yet either, at least offensively. They rank 23rd in OPS, 25th in ISO, 21st in WOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. Woodruff also has 98 MPH heat on the black of the plate –
The lineup is much more talented than that but Woodruff is no slouch. Neither side of the plate sits above a .180 wOBA or a .149 average, which is exactly what you want to see. The K rate for the Dodgers is only 22.9% but Woodruff is more than capable of getting through this lineup. I wonder if the DK salary keeps him fourth out of the big four. If that’s the case, we have to pay attention in GPP especially.
Starting Rotation 5.1 – In Play
Griffin Canning – It seems odd that he lands here, but the metrics are fascinating. The ERA is 8.40 but the xFIP is 3.78, which is just an absurd gap. His HR/FB rate is an astonishing 35.3% and his career rate for context is 14.4%. The hard contact is 25.6% and he’s got the fly ball rate under 40%. Canning has never posted a K rate higher than the 25.8% he’s sitting at, nor has he been all that close to a swinging-strike rate over 15%. He’s throwing the slider almost 41% of the time and recording a 43.9% whiff rate on it. Something has to give here, but don’t play him in anything but GPP.
Starting Rotation 5.1 – Out of Play
Blake Snell – You can make a case that he’s in play but I will disagree when he’s more expensive than Gallen and E-Rod. Is Snell talented? You bet. Will he ever pitch six innings again? That’s sort of a question, as he’s yet to achieve that feat once this year. The 33% K rate is excellent but the 12.8% walk rate is ninth in baseball. Not only does that dock points, but it also drives up the pitch count and Snell hasn’t thrown more than 95 pitches this season. The Giants are 0.1% away from leading the league in walk rate to lefties and are top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, and wOBA.
Charlie Morton – With Toronto sitting just 19th in K rate and healthy, finding the ceiling for Morton is going to be tough. Pitching in the Blue Jays “home” stadium doesn’t do anyone any favors either. Even scarier for Morton would be if his splits continue in this one. RHH have a .315 wOBA which is the worse side of the plate. The Jays are also 19th in ground ball rate, which could negate one of Morton’s strengths.
Anthony DeSclafani – I guess technically Tony Disco is “in play” but I can’t fathom not finding a few hundred more for Gallen or E-Rod. The Padres are not the Rockies on the road, so the matchup is a lot tougher. He’s started five games and almost a full third of his 30 strikeouts came against the Rockies in the last start. DeSclafani is another player who has only been over 90 pitches twice all season, which is a small concern. I do have to give him the .162 wOBA, .119 average, and zero home runs given up to righties. That’s what I’d prefer when facing the Padres but I will still happily play the other two pitchers, even in GPP.
Austin Gomber – He’s leading baseball in walk rate at over 18% and Arizona is first in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging to lefties while walking the most and striking out the sixth-least.
Jordan Lyles – We don’t play 6.09 FIP’s, 18.5% K rates, 2.63 HR/9, and 40.7% hard-hit rates.
Ljay Newsome – He’s not thrown more than 54 pitches, so you’d have to expect 70-75 is the limit. While he’s pitched well out of the bullpen, starting is totally different. I’m intrigued by the 24.4% K rate but not enough to take the risk when the Angels are on the other side.
Tommy Milone – His last three appearances have been 2.1 IP, 2.1 IP, and 1 IP.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
