Starting Rotation 4.9

Starting Rotation 4.9

We’re back in action for Friday and it’s a smaller slate than we’re accustomed to but there’s money to be made nonetheless. Starting Rotation was about as good as it can get yesterday, nailing six of the top seven DK scores on the slate. If you played someone, your pitchers did well and that is simply what you love to see. I have to say that today’s slate looks like a challenge. If you’re just looking at the fantasy points per game, there are a ton of options. There’s also a lot of volatility to each pick so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.9! 

Starting Rotation 4.9 – Cash Picks 

Lance McCullers ($9,100 DK/$9,000 FD) 

The fact McCullers is starting the cash picks should tip you off about how unstable some of these options are. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big McCullers fan but he’s not exactly known for his consistency. The first thing that jumps out at me for McCullers is hello to his new slider! He’s never thrown a slider before this season and McCullers introduced it with a bang, using it the most of any pitch. Of his seven strikeouts, six came from the slider and he didn’t give up a hit against it. Perhaps even more fascinating was that he threw it 34 total times and 33 came against righty hitters. Only three Oakland hitters are in the positives against the slider and one (Jed Lowrie) hits lefty. 

There were other encouraging metrics as well, including an 80% ground ball rate and just 30% hard contact rate. On top of that, the 34.1% CSW would be the top number of his career if it held out. McCullers only went five and is not normally super efficient with his pitch count. That was the case last time with 95 pitches thrown but at least we know he’s stretched out, right? Some of the other plus signs with McCullers are his career ERA at home is 2.51 (save the jokes, only I make terrible jokes in this article) and both the FIP and xFIP were under three from the first turn. I never love McCullers in cash, but armed with a new pitch I’m willing to chase his strikeout upside a bit. 

Tyler Mahle ($7,500 DK/$8,400 FD)

I do have to note right off the bat that Statcast and FanGraphs disagree on pitch types. FanGraphs has Mahle throwing a cutter 21.4% and the slider only 8.3% so I’m not sure where the truth lies. Either way, Arizona is 13th against the cutter so I’m not freaked out if Mahle’s pitch is closer to a cut fastball. What did the damage for him was the four-seam and he sat 2 MPH higher than normal and it touched 98 MPH during that start. It was his main strikeout pitch as well so that’s always a nice trick to have up your sleeve. 

Mahle generated a 32.1% CSW in his first start but he also got a little lucky by some measures. The hard-hit rate was 60% and his FIP was 6.05 compared to the 3.60 ERA. Another scary aspect is over his career, Mahle has scuffled significantly with lefties. They own a .371 wOBA, a .270 average, and a 2.10 HR/9. While he’s scheduled to face four of them in the D-Backs lineup, the quality of those lefties is questionable. Ketel Marte is on the IL so the most dangerous lefty might be Eduardo Escobar? We saw even in Coors they couldn’t get much going without Marte yesterday. I’m not totally on board with Mahle but he does fit nicely on DK as an SP2. 

Cash/GPP Picks

Note – I’m throwing in two pitchers that interest me here but I can honestly say I don’t have a good handle on projected ownership the night before. We’ll go with the chalk in cash like always but we’ll need to wait until tomorrow to hash out exactly which pitcher goes into what category. 

Zach Plesac ($9,600 DK/$8,600 FD) 

We can’t skip Plesac in this article but I’ll be upfront and say I’m lukewarm about playing him as the highest-salaried pitcher on the slate for DK. I almost certainly wouldn’t for GPP if he’s chalky. Here’s my largest concern with Plesac coming into this start –

His 2019 wasn’t spectacular by any means. The K/9 was very mediocre at best and the FIP/xFIP combo was over 5.00, hiding his ERA of 3.81 in my view. That sample was over 115 IP, so not exactly a small amount. Last season he pitched well, and he was only 25 so folk thought he had taken a step forward. That could definitely still happen, but you can’t tell me his first start didn’t look identical to his 2019 season. we’re paying a top salary for that? I don’t know about all that.

The Tigers are still stringing out at a hefty mark of 26.6% so there’s plenty of room for Plesac to rack up some strikeouts and pay off. I just am not convinced that’s super likely. His fly-ball rate coming out of that start was over 47% and his CSW was 17% Last season it was 29.5% so that’s a big jump. Most pitchers so far have seen it be relatively stagnant through a start or two. This could be chalked up to an average start but Plesac has a lot more time as an average pitcher in the majors than a good one right now. Look, if he’s chalk I’ll play him in cash but my overall interest isn’t that high. 

Joe Musgrove ($8,500 DK/$9,700 FD)

Big Joe Musgrove was on fire the last start, going six innings and whiffing eight hitters. I’ve always felt his raw stuff could have him in the mix for a very strong two or three starter in the league, and he flashed all of it last game. So why is he not in the sure-fire cash game picks? Texas has a bad offense by our preseason educated guess, right? Not so fast, at least to this point in the season. 

I fully expect after 162 games, the Rangers will have a sub-par offense. At this juncture, they are smacking around righty pitching with a .402 wOBA, .183 ISO, .913 OPS, and a .408 slugging. All of those marks are inside the top-eight in baseball currently. The K rate is over 26% but Musgrove also has a career .326 wOBA to LHH. He’ll face four or five tonight and that could be problematic. His CSW after one start is a massive 42.3% in part because his velocity was up across the board on every pitch. If he’s not chalky, I won’t take that risk in cash but I like Musgrove to tame the Rangers’ offense. It’s just a matter of format as to where I would play him. 

Honorable Mention – Possibly above all else, I’m not sure what to do with Zack Wheeler. There’s no denying that he was phenomenal against the Braves the first time out, with seven innings and 10 strikeouts. The CSW was 36.7% and his velocity was up a little bit as well. Atlanta has started slowly overall with a K rate over 30% to righty pitching and a bottom-six mark in wOBA but I’m not sure how long that lasts. I don’t think we’ll make money, in the long run, targeting Atlanta’s offense and I’m not looking to do it tonight. For me, he’s totally out on FD as the most expensive option. I’m not sold on Wheeler yet, but as always will let the projected chalk guide me. 

Gas Can of the Slate – This might be the first main slate we’ve had access to the 2021 version of the Big Red Machine. They won’t see my Buccos pitching tonight, but they do draw Taylor Widener of the D-Backs. He pitched well enough against the Padres in his first start but we have 120 innings from 2019 on between AAA and the majors. In that time frame, his HR/9 has been over 2.00 with a fly ball rate over 40%. His xFIP during that time is over 5.55 so there’s nothing in his profile that makes me think we should shy away. 

Enter the Reds, who are literally top-two in average, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ at this stage of the season. Widener used his fastball over 70% of the time in that first start and in his 26 IP has a career .397 wOBA, .268 average, and a 2.70 HR/9 to LHH. Enter Mike Moustakas who feels like a must-play at just $4,100. He’s mashing with a .520 wOBA so far and the price simply isn’t high enough. Additionally, he was the third-best fastball hitter last year behind Joey Votto and Nick Castellanos. He’s the lone expensive Red but is their best fastball hitter and is nuclear at the plate right now. Keep an eye out for cheap lefties like Tyler Naquin and Tucker Barnhart as well to take advantage of the lefty weakness for Widener. I’ll stack Reds until they make me stop. 

Secondary Options – Jonathan India, Eugenio Suarez

Starting Rotation 4.9 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Yesterday was a Cubs and Mets ML parlay, so I’d like to say good morning to Michael Conforto and I hope that fastball you’re getting hit with later on doesn’t hurt too badly. 

Record – 6-3

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!