Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.8
We have another quick turnaround for MLB as we get a seven-game slate at 1:10 PM. Yesterday got a bit dicey in cash games but it was a good example of why we eat chalk anytime we can. Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff scored just over 30 DK points and totally dominated. He was only 4% rostered so it looked great…until the 42% Jack Flaherty started pitching and we started going backward. It didn’t help that Alec Bohm went nuts at about 35% so hitting the chalk hitters is always super important. With that in mind, let’s get into this slate and find who we need to focus on in the Starting Rotation 4.8 to fin the green screens!
Starting Rotation 4.8 – Cash Picks
Corbin Burnes ($9,400 DK/$$9,400 FD)
I’m in love with this spot for Burnes. Based on one start, he’s upped his cutter usage and dropped the sinker usage way down which is a great sign. The three off-speed pitches are roughly used the same but the cutter has been his most valuable weapon in his arsenal. Burnes really broke out last year when he added the cutter and it was lethal, racking up a .169 average, .085 ISO, and 34 strikeouts. That was easily his out pitch last season and eight of his 11 whiffs in the first game came from (stop me if you heard it before) – the cutter.
The Cards are flirting with a 28% K rate to righty pitching so far and Burnes owned the right side of the plate last season with a .207 wOBA given up and a .140 average. St. Louis will typically be a righty-heavy lineup with five in their everyday lineup and the pitcher spot. The only hitters St. Louis had with a rating over 1.0 against the cutter are Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman. In the first start, Burnes had a massive 39.1% CSW (reminder that’s called+swinging strikes) and that’s almost 10% higher than 2020. He had a top-three rated cutter by FanGraphs value last season and has picked up right where he left off. He is my number one play on the board in a vacuum, so we’ll see how chalky he’s projecting for tomorrow.
Jake Arrieta ($8,500 DK/$8,500 FD)
To those folks who are new to baseball, one aspect I’m typically going to shy away from is pitchers who see the same team twice in a row. I’ve seen stats on both sides of the fence here, but as a rule of thumb, a team has a better idea of how to combat a pitcher if they get said pitcher two straight starts. Arrieta finds himself as an exception today because my rebuilding Buccos are dog water offensively. That’s being…generous since Ke’Bryan Hayes will still be missing in action. The 26.3% K rate is poor along with a .192 average as a team. Arrieta surpassed 20 DK points in his first start and seems primed to do it again.
Now, if the field doesn’t move towards Arrieta I will happily not use him today (or any day). This is a pitcher that hasn’t had a K rate over 19.1% since 2017. The strikeout is the great equalizer in DFS and that’s why we don’t care if pitchers like Shane Bieber give up a homer or two along the way when they whiff 12. Even though Arrieta went six strong in the first game, there were some not-so-great metrics. He gave up a hard-hit rate of 44.4% and his ground ball rate was a ghastly 27.8%. If he’s not generating ground balls, Arrieta will get ambushed by better offenses. Last season saw Arrieta give up a 1.77 HR/9 to LHH and he does face four but Colin Moran is about the only one that worries you. Going lower than Arrieta in cash is a little scary so I feel the field will gravitate here as their default SP2.
Lance Lynn ($8,700 DK)
The DK price is the only one listed as I have little interest over on FD when Burnes is $500 more. Lynn is such an oddball pitcher. He doesn’t really throw much else but variations of his fastball and yet…here he is just plugging away striking hitters out. One of his best aspects is his pitch count. This guy is a machine and he threw 99 pitches in his first turn. In 2020, he hit at least 102 pitches in every single start, which is quite notable in this day and age. For one, pitchers just don’t do that all the time and that means he wasn’t getting knocked around either. The Royals ranking first against the four-seam is somewhat of a concern but Lynn threw it 67.8% of the time last year so that’s just what he does.
His CSW was up by about 1% in the first game and the velocity was up a tick as well, both good signs for Lynn coming out of the gate. It’s definitely too much to expect him to sit down 12 hitters like Bieber did yesterday but a strong six innings are well within reach. If I have one fear, it’s his righty splits. They did get to him a bit last year with a wOBA over .330 and a 1.73 HR/9. I tend to think that Arrieta is more popular for this reason. The Royals have their power on the right side of the plate. They also have just a 23.9% K rate so far so I’m interested to see what the field is projected to do here.
Honorable Mention – None
Starting Rotation 4.8 – GPP Picks
Jose Berrios ($9,800 DK/$9,600 FD)
If you just open up the slate and look at my cash picks, you’re likely asking yourself why Berrios isn’t there. This guy just rocked for 40 (!) DK points, wouldn’t we want him in Seattle against an offense that is whiffing 28.6% to righty pitching? The answer is both yes and no in my eyes. The first reason we might just roll with Burnes outside of my love for him is Berrios is not going to score 40 DK again. Sorry, he just isn’t. Now it’s also fair to say that Burnes likely doesn’t hit 30+ again but Berrios as the highest-salaried pitcher is downright scary in my view.
We talked about last time his curve has been the key for him and it was in this first game. He recorded eight strikeouts with it but Seattle has held their own against the curve so far. The Mariners are also 12th in wRC+ and above average in wOBA, ISO, and OPS so far this season. They whiff but they are dangerous at the same time. We saw that against Lucas Giolito a couple of nights ago. Berrios recorded a 41.7% CSW and he’s never been above 29.2% in any season. Both Burnes and Berrios feel like we’re chasing a touch but I think Burnes has the clearer path to success. If Berrios is overwhelming chalk, we’ll ride it in cash without question but Burnes would be intriguing leverage.
Adam Wainwright ($7,500 DK/$7,400 FD)
I am very aware that Waino sports a -8.8 in his DK points per game column but this could be a very good get right spot. His best days are long behind him but there are spots where we can take calculated risks with him. Considering how the Brewers offense has started out, I’m looking to attack until they give me a reason not to. They are no higher than 25th in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties so far this season. Their K rate is flirting with 31% as a team and they aren’t getting much going.
Still, understand the risk you’re walking into. Wainwright did struggle a little bit with lefties and homers last year, sporting a 1.95 HR/9 and only a 17.2% K rate. He should face four lefties in the lineup tomorrow in Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez, and Travis Shaw. In the first start, Waino generated a 57.1% ground ball rate but got BABIP’d to death with a .462 mark. The Reds offense is a much better group than the Brew Crew and Waino either turns back the clock or flops. At his age, it’s not always a graceful decline so be cautious.
Jon Gray ($7,000 DK/$6,200 FD)
Let’s get nuts. Look, pitching overall on this slate isn’t anything to write home about and Gray is coming off a stellar start against the Dodgers in Coors Field. Not many pitchers emerge from that with 20 DK points but that’s exactly what Gray did last game. On the surface, not much really jumps out. The velocity was in line with 2020 and the CSW wasn’t anything different for him at 29.3%. That doesn’t mean I expect him to suddenly strike out 35% of the hitters like he did but the Arizona offense is sputtering and sadly will likely be without Ketel Marte in this game. He left last night with what looked like a not-insignificant hamstring injury.
Even with Marte smoking the ball early, Arizona hasn’t done much as they are 21st in wOBA, 14th in ISO (.160), 18th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+. Taking Marte out of the lineup isn’t going to help those marks in the least. To no surprise, he’s also their best fastball hitter so that mark deflates without him as well. Gray is not reliable at all but he does have a 4.61 ERA career in Coors and is only slightly worse to LHH. With no Marte, there are worse risks to take and he’s as cheap as you can go on FD.
Honorable Mention – Tyler Anderson
Gas Can of the Slate – The Marlins are rolling Nick Neidert out tomorrow so I’m pretty interested in Mets hitters. Neidert only has a combined 49.1 IP above AA ball, with 8.1 coming in the majors last season. He hasn’t displayed strikeout stuff very much, sitting at under 20% in any action since 2019. In that season with A+ ball, his fly-ball rate was over 50%. If these ratios stick, he’s going to get crushed in the majors. He’s a heavy fastball pitcher and I’m looking at the typical suspects of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and the lefty outfielders of Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. Alonso and Lindor are both under $5,000 so let’s pick on the new guy and LGM!
Starting Rotation 4.6 Betting Section
Free Strikeout Prop
TBD
Record – 5-3
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