Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.30
We get the normal sprawling slate on Friday night and I’d rather play this than the four-game slates we had last night. Even on a big slate, I can see cash ownership being concentrated on one player, and rightfully so. The options are plentiful tonight so we’ll have a lot of fun sorting through who we like in the Starting Rotation 4.30 to find the green!
Starting Rotation 4.30 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DK/$12,200 FD)
Cole is going to check in as my top option, although there are other pitchers close. It’s mostly because of the matchup because we have another bonafide stud on the mound tonight. Still, the Tigers have a top-five K rate to righty pitching and are 29th in OBP while Cole is top-three in K rate among starting pitchers. Now, they are top-four in ISO so when they make contact they can do some damage. The good news is through 31.2 IP this season, Cole has really taken care of his home run issues. Last year he sported a 1.73 HR/9 while this year it sits at a 0.28 mark. Just remember when you see this overlay that Cole throws 100 MPH gas as well –
Cole sits inside the top 10 in swinging-strike rate among starters as well, to go along with a 33.4% CSW. He’s recorded 38 strikeouts on the four-seam/slider combo and both pitches are no higher than a .255 wOBA. The slider especially has a 50% whiff rate. You can’t even really nitpick the splits. Detroit is projected to roll out six lefties/switch hitters tonight. Cole has been death to lefties with a .145 wOBA, .130 average, and a 50.9% K rate. His FIP to that side of the plate is an absurd -0.30. I’m not sure I’ve seen that this late in the season. Cole should come in much more popular than our next player.
Shane Bieber ($10,700 DK/$12,000 FD)
Bieber is one of the pitchers that the pitch data not looking too great for him just doesn’t matter all that much. He continues to be a monster, sitting fifth in the majors in K rate at 39.3%. The WHIP is still under 1.00, the hard-hit rate is 28.4% and the swinging-strike rate is third in MLB at 19.1%. There’s very little to pick on here. I will say that Cole will almost surely be the cash play, while Bieber is a fantastic GPP play if all the attention is on Cole. I would expect that to be the case since Cole is $200 cheaper.
It’s interesting to see the White Sox lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. They’re not whiffing a whole lot at 21.4% but that didn’t stop Bieber from pitching nine innings of shutout baseball against them once already with 11 strikeouts. Only once has Bieber not been into double-digits in K’s for a start and he checks in as the safest option on the board in my eyes. There’s no reason to not play him past the matchup, and even that is a slim branch to stand on. Both his curve and slider have a 47.9% whiff rate or higher. and those two pitches make up nearly 60% of his arsenal.
Yu Darvish ($9,500 DK/$11,000 FD)
The pitch data is sort of a mixed bag for Darvish but the matchup is quite good. It’s interesting to note that their best cutter hitter is Austin Slater at 3.4 and no other hitter is over a 1.5 rating. Darvish is also throwing the slider a bit more than last season and it’s been dominant so far with just a .063 wOBA given up. The Giants placed Mike Yastrzemski on the IL Wednesday so Darvish has a slightly easier path to success. Lefties or righties are going to have a tough time with this –
He’s pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts and just faced the Dodgers over his past 14 IP, giving up just two earned runs while whiffing 18 total hitters. I suppose you can say there is a slight concern that Darvish has a .277 wOBA to LHH but that’s not a reason to not look at him at all. He may be too pricey to pair with Cole but with a 30.6% K rate, there is still upside for Darvish. His barrel rate is just 6.8% and the CSW is almost 33%. You really can’t go wrong with Darvish tonight, but I do prefer Bieber and Cole with their shot at double-digit strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200 DK/$7,800 FD)
It wasn’t a banner start for Eovaldi last time out but that doesn’t have any bearing on tonight. Texas continues to lead the league in K rate to righty pitching and Eovaldi is still sporting some excellent metrics overall. In the last start, Eovaldi still generated 12 swings and misses and was touching 99 MPH. His FIP is still just 1.94 and the K rate is over 22% while not giving up a home run yet. Even though the K rate isn’t spectacular, Eovaldi generates ground balls at a 53.6% rate and holds hard contact down to 23.5%.
What is quite surprising to me is he’s sitting in the top 15 in the swinging-strike rate at 14.5%. Well, it’s surprising until you see some of the GIF’s –
That’s higher than some names like Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Walker Buehler. The splits are fairly even for Eovaldi but both sides are under .295 for the wOBA. The small concern I do have is the Rangers will likely throw five LHH and Eovaldi is only whiffing them at a 19.4% rate. Having said that, the fact that the Rangers are second in ground ball rate in addition to leading in K rate makes too much sense to overlook Eovaldi.
Pablo Lopez ($7,800 DK/$8,100 FD)
We haven’t really targeted Lopez on the road but he walked through the Giants lineup in San Francisco last time out. That may not sound impressive but Lopez has had a weakness to lefty hitters so that’s a good sign for him. With only 255 IP under his belt, I wonder if we’re seeing a full-fledged breakout from Lopez. The K rate has gone up every year and now sits at 28.6% and Washington is over 24% in K rate. Lopez has the ground ball rate working at a 47.9% rate and his FIP/xFIP combo are both below 3.10 on the season. Past one rough start in Atlanta (understandable), Lopez has clipped 20 DK in three of four starts and hit 16 in the other one.
The splits still aren’t great to lefties at a .314 wOBA but the Nationals are more righty leaning than anything. Additionally, only two hitters rate above 0.5 against the changeup, and that pitch is the main weapon for Lopez. I’m not really concerned this is from last year, as the change is as evil as ever –
It can be odd to see a changeup lead the pitch usage but Lopez rocks a 30% whiff rate, .221 wOBA, and 19 of 32 strikeouts. That pitch is the fourth-ranked changeup in all of baseball and the fact he throws it so much just adds to the case in my eyes. I doubt he’s super popular but he’s a cheap source of potentially 24 DK points.
Andrew Heaney ($6,800 DK/$8,700 FD)
The pitch data for Heaney suggests an elite spot for him tonight, not to mention it’s going to be a shift for Seattle to go from 88 MPH from Greinke to 92.5 MPH from Heaney. It’s also touched 94 MPH as you can see here when it generates a swing at the eyeballs –
Seattle is also struggling in general to lefties with a 28.8% K rate to go with their bottom-seven rank in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. I didn’t really expect to see Heaney sitting inside the top 10 in K rate so far at 36.7% but there he is. His last three games have come against tougher offenses to lefty pitchers in Toronto, Minnesota, and Houston. He’s racked up a total of 25 strikeouts and yielded just three earned runs total. Even the 4.35 ERA is belied by the 2.06 FIP and 2.45 xFIP. His pitch mix is mostly the same with some added velocity so far and the fastball has 14 of 29 strikeouts to go with a 29.6% whiff rate. I’m loving Heaney tonight, maybe a little more than I should but the data cannot be ignored. I could easily be wrong on a slate this large but he seems like a pitcher that first as an SP2 along with Cole in cash like a glove.
Starting Rotation 4.30 – In Play
John Means – We loved him the last time against the A’s and he went for 25.3 DK points. His changeup has a 35.1% whiff rate and he’s at a 25.4% K rate overall. Heading into Oakland is a big upgrade over pitching in Baltimore and should be even more helpful to the 48.7% fly-ball rate Means has. He’s sporting a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and the A’s are 22nd against the change on the year. I have absolutely no issues with playing Means tonight.
Lance McCullers – He’s always in play for GPP and the good news for him is the Rays don’t rate well against his main two pitches, the curveball, and slider. Tampa is 18th and 29th, respectively. McCullers is having some issues with walks at 13.1% but at least the HR/9 is under 0.50. He’s backing up his 25% K rate with a 54.2% ground ball rate and a 31.6% CSW. The .290 wOBA o LHH is the worse side of the plate for him but i’s not egregious. I doubt I use him, but he’d be in the player pool. His stuff always leaves him calling my name, tempting me to play him –
Brady Singer – I can’t say he’s a huge priority on this slate but he’s in the pool for sure. Minnesota is mostly a righty offense, especially with Josh Donaldson back. They could potentially play seven and Singer has been excellent to the right side of the plate. He’s sporting a .224 wOBA, 29.5% K rate, and has yet to yield a home run. If you remember way back, we talked about him on Opening Day. He got shellacked, but since then Singer has found his groove. The K rate has climbed to 28.4% and the swinging-strike rate is a career-best 10.5%. I wish he would stop being a two-pitch pitcher but the results are there in spades right now and it’s easy to see why –
Starting Rotation 4.30 – The “Maybe” Options
Freddy Peralta – Much like the next pitcher on this list, I can’t quite make up my mind on Peralta. I believe he either gets hammered or he flirts with 30 DK and I’m not sure there’s a lot in between. The good news for Peralta is he’s fourth in the league in K rate at 41.8%. You would think right there, he’s in play. The bad news is the walk rate is 14.3% and the Dodgers walk over 12% of the time, second in the league. They could really wreak havoc with the pitch count and Peralta has yet to be over 93 pitches. On top of that, LA is the second-ranked team against fastballs. Peralta throws his four-seam 55.6% of the time. It does have a 33% whiff rate but it also carries a .355 wOBA and that could really bit him.
Robbie Ray – There is a small case to be made for Ray, based entirely on the 2021 stats. Atlanta is only 18th against the fastball, and Ray is throwing it 58% of the time and his velocity is up to a 95 MPH average and it’s touching 98 MPH. I do NOT expect this to remain the case for Atlanta, but here it goes. They are the second-highest K rate team to lefties at 31.8% (and 24th in walk rate, which is good for Ray because his walk rate is always bonkers). Additionally, they are 29th or 30th in average, slugging, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They make a jump in ISO…to 23rd. This is sort of like the Yankees against Matt Harvey. Statistics and metrics can make the case but it is a terrifying play. I’m very torn on Ray and it’s not for the faint of heart, but the case is there. The fact he’s right next to Heaney in salary makes him more interesting.
Chris Flexen – The righty has resurrected his career so far and Flexen flummoxed (see what I did there? Hush, it’s 1:30 in the morning, just laugh at the wordplay) the Red Sox last time for seven innings, whiffing seven and giving up one earned. I still have a tough time playing him when the Angels are healthy but don’t want to take him totally off the table. Flexen throws the cutter/four-seam about 66% of the time and the Angels are in the top half of the league against both pitches. Flexen is getting a lot of soft contact and ground balls (50%) but going against the Angels doesn’t sound all that fun. This is a team that is top-five in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS to righty pitching. The .285 wOBA to righty hitters interests me since the Angels should throw out seven of them. He’s in play for a sub-5% GPP play that could do exactly what he did to Boston which is flummox them.
Alex Vesia – This is not set in stone and I need to see just how deep into the game Vesia could go, but I admit I am intrigued. He offers a good fastball, slider, and changeup combo and has some intriguing metrics. Through the minors (which is only about 90 IP), he’s displayed K rates of 30.4%, 37.8%, 34.3%, and 43.9%. Milwaukee is third in K rate to lefty pitching at a 30.7% rate. He only pitched 4.1 innings with Miami in the majors but does have an 11.3% swinging-strike rate. If you can play someone with some strikeout potential for a cheaper price than elite hitters, it’s something we need to look at, and let’s check back during the day.
Starting Rotation 4.30 – Out of Play
Ryan Yarbrough – This seems like a really tough spot for Yarbrough. The Astros rank eighth against the cutter and Yarbrough throws that pitch 45.5A% of the time. It has a .353 wOBA against it and his overall K rate is only 18.1%. That’s not high for the salary being asked, although his 11.8% swinging-strike rate is pretty solid. RHH have a .313 wOBA and a .279 average, which could provide issues against the Astros lineup. The K rate to righties also drops to just 14.1%, making it harder to envision the ceiling for the Rays lefty.
Jon Gray – He’s pitching well so far as the ERA/FIP/xFIP are all under 4.00, something nice to see for a Rockies pitcher. My biggest issue is the splits as Gray is giving up a .343 wOBA, 1.46 HR/9, a 12.3% K rate, and a 6.01 FIP to the left side of the plate. With Arizona potentially rolling out six lefties, that’s a hard sell on a slate so big, even though he did rack up over 24 DK points when he faced Arizona earlier this season.
Logan Webb – I’m not buying one good game from Webb although the 24.7% K rate doesn’t look bad. The issues come from the Padres simply not striking out, as they are under 22% as a team. I’d rather take a one-off lefty or maybe a mini-stack with Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer. Webb is getting smoked by LHH with a .492 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9, and a .417 average.
Drew Smyly – His 23.8% K rate looks pretty good until you see the 6.89 FIP and 3.60 HR/9. The fly ball rate is spiked at 57.8% and the hard contact is 42.2%. Righties are sporting a .346 wOBA against him and the Jays lineup is healthy. Good luck, Mr. Smyly.
Michael Pineda – I can’t say there’s anything super “wrong” with playing Pineda as he has a 25% K rate. I suppose his best chance for a good game is against a team like the Royals with a lot of righty hitters since Pineda has a 27.7% K rate and a .234 wOBA against them. It just seems like the max he can give you is 20 DK and there are others around him I like an awful lot more.
Jake Arrieta – On a smaller slate, he might get more traction for me. The K rate at 22.2% is the highest since 2017 and that does feel notable. The funny part is he’s throwing the sinker more and it’s still not a strikeout pitch with just a 16.3% whiff rate. In the small sample, he’s been worse on the road and lefties have done the damage there with a .359 wOBA.
Marcus Stroman – The righty is a good real-life pitcher, but fantasy-wise he’s just not that interesting. I typically only turn to him on short slates, which this is definitely not it. The 16% K rate just doesn’t stand up to other options so even with a 59.7% ground ball rate, I’ll look elsewhere.
Wade Miley – The Cubbies are two distinctly different offenses. One is when a righty pitcher is on the mound, which is worth using the pitcher. When a lefty is on the hill, it’s a big turn towards Chicago. They rank in the top 10 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The only way Miley and his 18.6% K rate get through this one is ground balls. Miley does have a 55.4% rate and an 18.5% hard contact rate while Chicago is top 12 in ground ball rate. That just says maybe we shouldn’t stack Cubs with abandon more than it says let’s play Miley.
Tarik Skubal – There’s no need to dip into this salary range for a lefty in Yankee Stadium who may not even get through three innings. He only went 2 2/3 last time out, and that’s the least of his worries. Skubal has a career 2.47 HR/9 in the majors, a FIP/xFIP combo over 6.50, and a ghastly 61.4% fly-ball rate.
Chase Anderson – If the Mets can’t figure out this guy, I may give up on them for a while. Anderson has a 17.1% K rate to a 10.5% walk rate and a 1.44 WHIP. The HR/9 is 1.62 and the Mets are eighth against the fastball, a pitch Anderson throws over 41% of the time. It is interesting to note that it’s the LHH that have three homers off Anderson and a 3.85 wOBA.
Jon Lester – I’m going to let Brian handle this in Picks and Pivots. He’s been waiting a looooooooong time for this. Seriously, stop reading mine, go read Picks and Pivots, and then come back. We’ll still be here, I promise!
Mike Fiers – He was supposed to be in the bullpen, so I would want some type of pitch count before we can even discuss it. I’m not rushing to play Fiers coming off an injury tonight in his season debut.
Dallas Keuchel – He pitched six innings last start, didn’t give up an earned run, and scored 13 DK. The K rate is barely 11. I can’t pass over his name fast enough.
Kohei Arihara – So far, the best attribute for Arihara is he’s not typically getting smacked, at least results-wise. Still, his K rate is under 15% and the hard-hit rate is 44.3%. Righties are hitting him with a .380 wOBA, .298 average, 1.50 HR/9, and Boston may play seven of them.
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