Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.25
Sunday brings us a jam-packed slate but for once, we don’t have to deal with Coors Field. I always prefer slates like that so I don’t feel like we have to jam 18 bats into cash and this one is right up our alley in that respect. It’s also very interesting because there are 10 (!) pitchers priced between $9,000 and $8,000 on DK today. We’re going to be able to fit in whoever we like, so let’s talk about who we should be chasing in Starting Rotation 4.25 to find green screens!
Lucas Giolito ($9,100 DK/$10,000 FD)
Giolito got blasted last time out but that doesn’t really affect today in my eyes. First off, every pitcher has some bad days. It happens in baseball. Secondly, he took the mound at what amounted to 10 AM for his rhythm. Giolito is typically in the Central time zone and it’s a tough ask to pitch that early in the morning (11 AM Eastern). Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. So the 5.79 ERA is not only skewed but the 3.53 FIP and 2.94 xFIP also suggest positive regression for Giolito is just around the corner. He won’t continue to have a 55.6% strand rate and a .311 BABIP when he’s sporting a 32.1% K rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.4% CSW.
What really makes Giolito a great play is the changeup data and the splits. His changeup has recorded 15 of the 26 strikeouts already with a 39.4% whiff rate. Furthermore, the Rangers project to have five lefties in the lineup and Giolito has far better results to the left side of the plate. The wOBA is just .227, the average is .205, the FIP is 1.00 and his K rate is 35.7%. Giolito is far too talented to continue having some of the poor metrics in his profile and this is a get right spot to a major degree on paper.
Danny Duffy ($8,000 DK/$8,800 FD)
I would have to assume Duffy is going to get plenty of traction on this slate. He’s been excellent so far and draws one of the best statistical matchups on the board against the Tigers. Of course, the ERA of 0.50 won’t stick but the 2.71 FIP is still fantastic and he’d be lucky to settle at that mark. It’s likelier that he settles near the 4.04 xFIP but the 26% K rate is something we’re very happy to chase. The Tigers are striking out 32.7% of the time, which is the second-most in the league. Not only that, they are dead last in every major offensive category we value. Duffy legitimately cannot get a better matchup. I would be very surprised if Duffy is not the Uber-chalk in cash games today.
Duffy has increased the fastball/slider combo usage, up to 68% of the time. Duffy has 19 strikeouts on the season and a whopping 17 of them have come from those two pitches, and both are under a .240 wOBA on the year. Duffy has also gained almost 2 MPH on these pitches, which could help explain the early dominance.
His fastball is in the top 20 in the league via FanGraphs ratings which isn’t something I thought I would see. Given everything working in his favor, Duffy looks to be one of the strongest picks on the board today.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($9,000 DK/$9,500 FD)
I stress that Ryu is not anything approaching a cash play. The Rays can hit lefty pitching, but they also strike out an awful lot making this entire matchup GPP-only. Ryu has been interesting so far because his K rate is down to 21.9% and yet, his swinging strike rate is 12.8%. For context, he’s never been over 11.6% in his career and the CSW is also right at the highest he’s ever produced, 31.1%. So far this year, the changeup has been the pitch holding Ryu back for strikeouts. Last year it generated a 30.6% whiff rate and this year it’s down to 23.9% and has only recorded three strikeouts. What is kind of crazy is the xwOBA and xSLG are both lower this year than last season. The movement is about the same as well so this could be just a little bad strikeout luck early.
Tampa could help solve that issue. They rank eighth in plate appearances to lefties this year and have the sixth-highest K rate in baseball at 29.1%. They are also top 10 in wRC+ and OBP so this will be a fun battle all game long. I believe Ryu will be unpopular with Giolito only $100 more and that could make him super appealing in GPP formats, especially if the strikeouts start racking up in this start. Ryu is only allowing a 22% hard contact rate to righties while generating a 50% ground ball rate. The .329 wOBA is not ideal but he’s not getting hit particularly hard to this point. If he’s on his game, this could be a great spot for him with strikeout upside.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD)
The pitch data doesn’t suggest the most ideal matchup for E-Rod but the splits are certainly in his favor. Seattle is third in walk rate at 13% but things get pretty grim after that. They whiff 27.8% of the time which is a top 10 rate and are in the bottom-eight in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Rodriguez has posted the best K rate of his career at 29% so far and his walk rate is excellent at 3.2%. That helps mute some of the fear with Seattle’s walk rate as well. He missed last season with health issues and it’s great to see him thriving early. Changes in the pitch mix have done wonders so far as not many pitchers lead with a changeup.
In 2019, he threw the four-seam 38.9% of the time but dropped it under 24% this year. Every pitch is a strikeout pitch right now as they are split evenly across the board. The hard-hit rate is only 31% and even though he can’t sustain a 95.2% strand rate, he still has a lower xFIP (2.87) than ERA (3.38). E-Rod does have a .331 wOBA to RHH and the Mariners should have 5-6 in the lineup but that doesn’t mean they’re great hitters. As long as the weather cooperates, he’s on the board in GPP instead of Danny Duffy.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,400 DK/$9,300 FD)
I want to be cautious here with Woodruff. For starters, the Cubs offense is coming around to what we assumed they would be before Opening Day. There’s also another layer for Woodruff. In his last start against the Cubs, he hit Willson Contreras and later had a pitch thrown behind him. The Cubs admitted that it was an intentional act to send a message. I would like to think Woodruff doesn’t do anything but if he does, it’s going to result in almost an automatic ejection. Know that going into this one.
Just going off the stats, Woodruff is appealing even at the highest salary of the slate. His K rate is 29.9% and he’s rocking a 1.96/1.75/2.97 ERA/FIP/xFIP trio. No player has hit a bomb off him yet and the hard contact isn’t even 30%. When he’s not striking hitters out, he’s generating a 45.3% ground ball rate which is a nice metric to have in Wrigley. It’s also nice to be able to do this to opposing hitters –
Splits don’t matter much to Woodruff as both sides of the plate are right about a .175 wOBA and neither side has an average over .143. Chicago is still a top-eight team in K rate and the only other main concern is similar to Freddy Peralta yesterday, this will be the third time in four starts Woodruff has seen them. I definitely prefer Giolito, but if there’s a massive ownership discrepancy that has to be noted and played in GPP.
John Means/Jesus Luzardo ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD and $7,700 DK/$6,700 FD)
I can see this game being a slugfest or I can see it being a pitchers duel, and I’m interested in both pitchers in GPP settings. Let’s chat about Means first and take a look at his pitch mix.
As you can see, it’s an elite spot for the two main pitches for Means. He makes his living on those pitches but every pitch in his arsenal has a positive FanGraphs rating.
Means is sporting his highest swinging strike rate and CSW of his career so far at 12.8% and 30.2%, respectively. The K rate overall is over 25% but make no mistake – the A’s have smacked lefties consistently for a couple of seasons now. They have a top 10 ranking in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this season like they normally do. Means has handled tougher matchups already this year in the Red Sox and Yankees. True, he didn’t get through five innings against NY but he has only given up one total earned run thus far. Means is holding righties to a .246 wOBA and has a very respectable 24.6% K rate. I would be shocked if he’s popular but he deserves some attention even in a risky spot.
Luzardo might be even riskier and his pitch mix could possibly stand to be diversified just a bit. Not for nothing, but he brought back the Rec Specs last game and said he’ll be wearing them again. His stuff is certainly good enough to make hitters look ridiculous –
The Orioles have scuffled against lefties so far with a K rate over 28% and ranking bottom 10 in our major offensive categories. Even with a four-seam heavy approach, Luzardo is generating a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and is over 25% in overall K rate. The BABIP is unusually high thus far at .353 for him, causing the strand rate to dip below 70%. Just like Means, he’s had a tough road so far with starts against the Dodgers, Astros, and Twins. The Minnesota game was his finest of the season with six strikeouts over 5.1 IP and just two hits allowed. He’s been yanked at just 63 and 65 pitches the past two starts but has 92 and 104 pitches under his belt in the other two. The 23-year-old is still learning how to harness his talent so he’s far from a slam dunk but the spot could be far worse.
Honorable Mention – Triston McKenzie, Luis Castillo but he has to get past his first inning issues, Zac Gallen (that game could wind up being started by Madison Bumgarner after it was postponed last night)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
