Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.23
Friday is here and we have the typical monster slate on hand for MLB tonight with 14 on tap. The good news is there is a very clear cash pitcher that will be the chalk, so one spot is already decided right off the bat. Finding one other pitcher among the 27 left shouldn’t be too difficult, right? Let’s get right into work in the Starting Rotation 4.23 and find out who we’re pairing with our ace!
Starting Rotation 4.23 – Cash Targets
Jacob deGrom ($10,900 DK/$12,500 FD)
If deGrom was a mere mortal, I might have some slight concerns about the Nationals being a top 10 team against the fastball. We all know that deGOAT is not a mere mortal and he’s destroying everyone in his path even though he’s throwing a fastball almost 70% of the time. I’m not exactly sure how to explain how ridiculous that is. deGrom sports a 39.1% whiff rate on the pitch. Look at the first fastball just climb the ladder. It’s like a UFO –
He leads the league in K rate at 48.6%, swinging strike rate at 23.2% (which is 3% higher than Shane Bieber at second), and is fourth in CSW at 37.5%. The Nationals don’t strike out much as a team at 21.4% but just like the fastball ranking, I don’t care against deGrom. Nothing in the profile projects anything but dominance and he should get five righties. So far this year, deGrom has a -0.26 FIP to the right side of the plate. He’s the easiest play on the board for cash.
Sandy Alcantara ($7,400 DK/$8,000 FD)
There are a lot of metrics to love for Alcantara to slide in as he SP2 with deGrom tonight. For starters, the pitch mix looks great as the Giants are in the bottom half of the league against all of his offerings. Secondly, he’s dominating the left side of the plate which is exactly what we hunt for against the Giants. The projected lineup has five in it and Alcantara sports a .191 wOBA, .140 average, and a 28.6% K rate to that side. It’s not like he doesn’t whiff righties either since they have a 27.5% K rate. Very few ballparks can offer the same environment that Miami does but San Francisco is one of them. Both parks are in the bottom five in run factor this season.
One thing we want to try to nail down is why Alcantara has suddenly become a strikeout pitcher. This season he’s at 28% but in the previous 279.2 IP in the majors, he’s never been over a 22.7% rate in a season he’s pitched more than 10 innings. One big aspect that stands out is the change in the sinker/four-seam mix. Last season the sinker led his usage at 34.9%. This year, it’s down to 26.8% and the four-seam and changeup have ticked up in a big way. I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that those pitches have combined for 22 of 28 strikeouts for Alcantara. This changeup is unhittable, flat out –
His velocity is up a hair, the mix is different and the results show so far.
Starting Rotation 4.23 – Secondary Targets
Note – For the early look, I would hazard a guess that the deGrom/Alcantara pairing is the cash pair and that’s going to be heavy chalk. For the rest of the way, let’s chat about the other five pitchers that really interest me and we can let the projected ownership be the guide.
Tyler Glasnow ($10,200 DK/$11,200 FD)
I don’t believe this will be the cash pair with deGrom since we have a Coors game on the slate. The field will want a piece of those bats so spending over $20,000 on pitching is likelier to be a pivot than the norm. Still, the chance to rack up 22 strikeouts or more is tempting. Moreover, Glasnow is one of the only pitchers in baseball this year that I would say has the shot to beat deGrom in fantasy points on a slate. Only six pitchers have a K rate at 40% or higher and Glasnow is part of that exclusive club. Toronto isn’t a huge strikeout team at 23.7% but at the same time, they struggle against the main two pitches for Glasnow. This overlay is a thing of beauty –
The big righty isn’t getting a lot of strikeouts on his slider, as the four-seam and curve account for 32 of 36 strikeouts so far. All three pitches have a whiff are of 33.6% or higher and what is funny is his slider is still a top 15 pitch in baseball for FanGraphs ratings. The fastball is the highest rated in baseball so far and only Vlad, Marcus Semien, and Randal Grichuk rate well against that pitch. The latter two are also over 23% in K rate so there’s still upside for Glasnow. I continue to be impressed with the strides that Glasnow has made and if the Blue Jays matchup leaves him slightly unpopular, I’m all for it.
Steven Matz ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD)
The matchup via pitch data is not exactly ideal for Matz but he’s been too good to start the year, I have to give him a look here in GPP formats. He’s dropped the sinker usage under 50% and is using the secondary pitches more often. The changeup especially is the out pitch with eight of the 18 total for Matz. The sinker does have nine to his credit and only has a .283 xwOBA. Matz is sporting a K rate of 26.5% so far and he also has a 48.8% ground ball rate, his highest since 2016.
That last part is important since the Rays rank ninth in ground ball rate to lefty pitching at 45.6%. They also have a 23.5% K rate which is the fifth-highest in baseball so far in 2021. It’s still a dangerous spot since the Rays are top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and average. Matz has already handled tough matchups before and has yet to drop below 18 DK. Since he’s still under $9,000, I am interested. Tampa should throw out six righty hitters tonight and Matz has dominated that side of the plate with a .189 wOBA, .098 average, and a 23.4% K rate. He could sail past 20 DK points again tonight.
Sonny Gray ($9,300 DK/$8,100 FD)
The pitch data for Gray is really outstanding here, as is the ninth-highest K rate to righty pitching for Cards. St. Louis isn’t even out of the 20’s against the main pitches for Gray while sitting 20th in wOBA and wRC+. For Gray’s end of the bargain, he should be at 90-ish pitches tonight after throwing 71 in his first start of the season. His velocity was down just a hair, but nothing that would concern me right out of the gate for him. He gets a little help from the ump but the movement is still great here –
His BABIP walking out of the first start was .417 which will obviously come down, so the K rate of 28.6% is encouraging. Perhaps even more encouraging was the hard contact rate was only 15.4% in the first turn. He generated a respectable 17.3% swinging strike rate as well, along with a 30.7% CSW. I believe Gray could get lost in the shuffle tonight with the players around him in price on DK, but that could be a mistake. Over on FD, he feels very cheap for his strikeout upside tonight.
Dylan Cease ($6,600 DK)
This pick is not for the faint of heart and I’d pass on FD since you only have to pitch one. Cease has some strikeout ability but comes with a catch. The only predictable aspect of his profile is his wild unpredictability. He is leaning more on just his four-seam and slider this year but the walk rate is still through the roof at 14.3%. That’s the career high and that’s saying a lot since his career marks is 12.1%. However, his swinging strike rate is also a career high 11.6% and that’s got me interested in this price tag. He’s still just 25 years old and the talent is there –
Another aspect that catches my eye is Cease has been better to lefties so far this year with a .292 wOBA and a .133 average allowed. Considering the Rangers should play five lefties and hold the highest K rate to RHP in baseball at 29.5%, the path for some ceiling for Cease is easy to see. The path for failure is also pretty simple to find because even though he whiffs the lefties at a 27.3% clip, Cease has a 6.09 FIP to that side as well. You can’t touch him in anything other than GPP but he is the lowest I’d be willing to go in salary.
Honorable Mention – I wanted to write up my man JT Brubaker for the Buccos but he’s in a difficult spot. The Minnesota Twins are rife with righty power and Brubaker has a wOBA over .400 to the right side. That’s going to be a pass for me.
The other two pitchers that have to be talked about are Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish. These two just faced each other five days ago and both went over 29 DK points. I generally don’t care for pitchers against the same team but these are elite pitchers in the majors. Even the Dodgers are going to have issues with a pitcher that can do this –
On the flip side, Kershaw is among the best to ever do it and still is capable of dominating any given fifth day –
I easily prefer deGrom and Glasnow for Starting Rotation 4.23 but Kershaw and Darvish are in play in both formats and I wouldn’t fault you at all even in tough matchups.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
