Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.22
I’d like to wish everyone a pleasant Thursday except for Jakob Junis, who I will thank for absolutely nothing. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about today. We only have a two-game slate in the afternoon and a five-game slate in the evening. I’m skipping the two-game entirely, as the four pitchers might combine for 25 DK points. It’s totally brutal. The five-game slate has some intriguing options but the path for failure exists for everyone. Starting Rotation 4.22 will be a GPP-only slate for me since I don’t play cash when I’m this ambivalent on starting pitching and all 10 pitchers have issues this evening.
Starting Rotation 4.22 – Targets
Alex Cobb ($7,700 DK/$8,700 FD)
Just looking at the statistics this season for Cobb, it’s a wonder he even throws a sinker. It’s getting smacked for a .500 average and a .493 wOBA so far. His splitter and curve have been far superior, both sporting a whiff rate of at least 34.8%. Of the 17 strikeouts Cobb has recorded, 13 have come from the splitter. Now, the Astros are 28th but that can be tough to truly gauge. Not many pitchers feature a splitter so the sample is small. In fairness, they have ranked third and 10th in the past two seasons and that lineup is mostly intact. It’s still hard to ignore Cobb racking up a 34.7% K rate, a 19.1% swinging-strike rate (good for third in the majors being only Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber), and a 32.5% CSW. Paul Sporer outlines the splitter being a big reason for the swinging strike rate explosion in this piece over at FanGraphs –
Cobb’s fast start is tied directly to the return of his splitter aka The Thing. The 1.5 Pitch Value makes it the third best splitter in the league thus far (by results, Pitch Value doesn’t guarantee future success), behind only Kevin Gausman (4.1) and Aaron Civale (2.1). He showed some flashes of getting back on track last year, particularly with the splitter which earned a 2.6 Pitch Value.
If you do better with the visual representation of a pitch, our friend Pitching Ninja has you all set as well –
Houston is not exactly the offense we set out to attack every day. To wit, they strike out the second-least in baseball so far to righty pitching. They are also 14th in OPS so this is not an easy spot for Cobb. There are really no easy spots on this slate. Cobb’s .367 wOBA to righties is a bit concerning but the 0.73 xFIP to that side of the plate makes it seem like the wOBA is a bit unlucky. He’s whiffing the right side at a 37% clip so we can live with some production with that K rate to go along with it. The projected lineup for Houston has six RHH so the strikeout potential is about as high as it’s going to get and is worth chasing tonight.
Walker Buehler ($10,000 DK/$9,800 FD)
I feel like we have to include Buehler for this slate. In honesty, if we’re just talking raw skills, I don’t think there’s much question he’s not the number one on the slate. My issues come from what he’s shown this year, albeit in the small sample. Are we paying top dollar for a pitcher who has a 17.1% K rate so far against the team that has the best K rate to righty pitching so far? San Diego is the only team under 20% as a team and that doesn’t exactly scream upside for a five-digit salary.
I wish he threw the secondary pitches more often. Just look at the curve and four-seam overlay and tell me this isn’t a pitcher who should be whiffing hitters left and right –
The four-seam is doing well for him with a .288 wOBA and .262 average given up. It does have seven of his 12 strikeouts but it also has a paltry 13.4% whiff rate. Even his swinging strike rate is under 10% for the first time in his career at 9.9% and the CSW is under his career average as well. His four-seam is the 23rd ranked fastball and the cutter is 11th, which speaks to the talent level. I just have concerns about the upside and would say I’m likely to fade him in GPP as of now, especially if he’s chalky.
Aaron Sanchez ($7,100 DK/$7,200 FD)
The options are dwindling quickly but Sanchez might be in a solid spot tonight. I think it can be easy to just say, “He’s pitching against the Marlins” but that’s not particularly fair and we always will go further than that. Don’t get it wrong, the Marlins are a good matchup. They whiff over 25% of the time to righty pitching, are 25th in OPS, 30th in ISO, and 24th in wRC+. What’s really interesting about Sanchez is this season, he’s been pitching backward. That is to say, the curveball is his most-used pitch and it’s a slow breaker at that. Check out the 12-6 action on this pitch –
He’s throwing it under 75 MPH but getting a 45.9% whiff rate on it. Sanchez only has a 19% K rate (higher than Buehler so far, I might add) but the ground ball rate is 55.6% so far.
Perhaps the best metric for Sanchez is the Miami lineup itself. They are projected to play six righties plus the pitchers spot and that’s an advantage for Sanchez. He’s controlled the right side with a .238 wOBA, .200 average, 21.1% K rate, and a 2.32 FIP. Now, if you want to play a one-off Corey Dickerson or Jazz Chisolm to attack the .389 wOBA to lefties, I wouldn’t dissuade you. I think one of the better ways to deal with this slate is to spend in the middle with your pitching and let the big bats do the talking. I’m looking at the Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers this evening as all three teams are in good spots against inferior pitching.
Starting Rotation 4.22 – Notes of Interest
Since it’s a small slate, I want to bring up some other names of pitchers quickly and explain why I’m not exactly excited to use them.
Christian Javier – He takes on an Angels team that is bottom-five in K rate so the ceiling is questionable for such a high price tag. It’s also been two weeks since his last start so sharpness is at least in question as well. The K rate is over 30% but the swinging strike rate is under 10% so I’m not sure that sticks around very long.
Trevor Williams – He’s sporting a .389 wOBA and a 5,70 xFIP to the left side of the plate and the Mets should have at least 4-5 in the lineup. I know the Mets have done us wrong a few times this year but I’ll go back to them in this spot.
Nick Pivetta – The Mariners matchup is one to attack, but Pivetta has frightening underlying metrics. The walk rate is 16.9% and the xFIP is 5.42 compared to his 3.68 ERA. The swinging strike rate is as high as it’s ever been but the CSW is as low as it’s ever been for him. Something isn’t adding up and it seems like a blowup is right around the corner.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
