Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.21
Wednesday brings us some big names on the mound even though we have two separate slates ahead of us, an early and main slate. The early slate is a little more fun at least as name-value but we’re just doing the notes for that since the main slate is seven games. Let’s not waste any more time and dive into the Starting Rotation 4.21 and find out who we like and who to avoid!
Starting Rotation 4.21 – Early
Cash – This is a pretty easy starting point because it’s Max Scherzer and there’s not much discussion. St. Louis (thanks for last night by the way, much appreciated) is whiffing over 25% against righty pitching so far. Mad Max has the K rate up to 34.8% so far this season and the walk rate is down to 4.3%. The swinging strike rate is sitting at 17.4% and that would be the highest mark of his career, which is patently terrifying. Scherzer is more or less doing what he always has and that is strike the other team out, even with the velocity down just a tick. No other pitcher on this slate really matches the potential upside. Lock him in.
At a guess, I would think the field gravitates to Kenta Maeda on DK for their SP2. I totally see why and don’t mind eating the chalk, but I don’t think Maeda is the slam dunk play here. He does feature a 25.8% K rate to righty hitters, and Oakland is likely to feature six. The wOBA to that side of the plate isn’t great for Maeda at .379 and both sides are hitting over .300 against him so far. That might be pretty misleading though. His barrel rate is a tiny 2.1% and the BABIP is over .400. There’s been some tough luck involved for Maeda so far and it’s an easy duo to start building around.
GPP – If everything was equal, I would say Dinelson Lamet could push Scherzer for the fantasy point lead today. The only aspect holding me back is this is his first start of the season coming off a UCL sprain. That’s scary for a pitcher and in the past two seasons, Lamet has thrown a total of 142 innings. In that time, he’s sported a K rate over 33% and a swinging strike rate of at least 17.7%. That would rank fifth this season among qualified starters, for context. The Brewers are 28th against the slider and the last we saw Lamet, he was fastball/slider primarily. If you need a reminder of how ridiculous the slider is from Lamet, allow the Pitching Ninja to refresh your memory –
With Milwaukee struggling mightily in games not started by Chris Paddack, Lamet has upside but is a very big mystery bag here and I would tread with caution at full price.
Honorable Mention – I looked at Frankie Montas again but the Twins are ninth against fastballs and he throws a four-seam or sinker about 67% of the time. On top of that, he’ll face 5-6 RHH and only has a 12.9% K rate to go along with a 5.05 xFIP. The Twins are sixth in wOBA, OPS, and slugging against righty pitching so far so this could be a rough ride for Montas. It’s not a question of raw stuff, just the matchup doesn’t look super favorable.
For those who feel like riding the wave, Jose Urquidy is on the board but I wouldn’t go there in single entry formats. Colorado continues to be mostly terrible, even in Coors. Only Oakland has a lower average at home against RHP and they are 20th in OPS along with 26th in wOBA. The K rate is even spiked over 25.4%. Urquidy has a very worrisome fly ball rate of 48.8% but the K rate is just under 29%. We’ve seen multiple starters succeed in Coors so far this season. It’s no guarantee at all, but it’s time to adjust and realize the Rockies offense just isn’t all that good. There is always worry in Coors and Urquidy does utilize a curve, so tread carefully.
Starting Rotation 4.21 – Main
Cash Targets
Tyler Mahle ($9,500 DK/$8,800 FD)
I’m not sure how often Mahle is going to lead the cash group, but I can’t in good conscience pay over $10,000 for Aaron Civale against the White Sox for the second time in a row. Mahle has come out of the gates on fire with a K rate over 39% and some newfound velocity. His four-seam has jumped to almost 94 MPH and owns 15 of his 22 strikeouts. The barrel rate is only 7.4% so far and the hard contact is under 30%. Mahle also is rocking his career-high in CSW at 33.2%.
Even though the D-Backs rank high against the fastball, I really love the splits for Mahle. He’s projected to face six lefties and the pitcher spot. So far this season, LHH have a .040 average, .126 wOBA, and a 41.4% K rate. Kick in the 1.65 FIP and those are some gaudy numbers to the left side of the plate. That fastball is generating a 30% whiff rate and he’s pounding it to lefties, throwing it 95 times already. Two of the top four fastball hitters are righty for Arizona and the fifth is on the IL. The metrics really line up for Mahle in this one.
Jakob Junis ($6,400 DK/$7,300 FD)
I suppose if my cutter was as good as the one Junis is throwing, I wouldn’t deviate from the plan either.
Look, if DK won’t raise his price we have to keep coming back to him at least in passing. Maybe the field doesn’t come with us and doesn’t trust him. I will say that the trust factor isn’t 100% there but the matchup looks tasty. Junis added the cutter this season and it’s been dynamite. It has supplied 10 of his 15 strikeouts so far to go along with a 55.6% whiff rate and a .238 xwOBA. The Rays strike out at the 11th highest rate in baseball to righty pitching at 26.6%.
Junis has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career but adding the new pitch has him sitting pretty through his first few appearances. The swinging strike rate is 12.4% and he’s never been higher than 9.8%. The CSW has followed at 31.4% contrasted with a career average of 27.6%. The overall K rate of 32.6% likely will settle lower but his barrel rate is just 7.1% as well. The smart bet would be the Rays throwing out five LHH to combat Junis but so far, Junis has chewed them up with a .146 wOBA, .136 average, and a 26.1% K rate. Righties are whiffing 39.1% of the time early on and the xFIP is no higher than 3.03 to either side. The metrics don’t suggest a $6,400 pitcher and the Rays are a good matchup to get after some strikeouts.
GPP Targets (could easily turn into cash targets)
Michael Wacha ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD)
Figuring out who’s chalk and not tonight is tougher than the night before. I could see the field chasing the 33 DK Wacha just posted against the Yankees here since the Royals are a much worse offense in the public eye. They do hover around 14-18th in the offensive categories we value but they also whiff 26.9% against righties, ninth-most in baseball. Wacha has dialed back the four-seam usage and leaned into his cutter a lot more. Those two pitches have done well for him with 15 of his 20 strikeouts to this point. The four-seam is the biggest concern with an xwOBA over .400 and that is the best pitch for the Royals. Still, there is potential for Wacha at this price.
When we target the Royals offense, we want a pitcher who can control the right side of the plate. Generally, that side has the most dangerous hitters for Kansas City. Wacha is mostly doing that with a 33.3% K rate and a .314 wOBA. He’s also only allowing a 27.3% fly-ball rate to righties. I would much prefer not to use him in cash, but we’ll see where the chalk falls.
Ian Anderson ($8,400 DK/$7,800 FD)
You didn’t really expect me to not include Anderson on this slate, did you? I really don’t want much to do with him for cash but man this spot could be directly in his wheelhouse. His changeup is lethal when everything is working and it’s a funny coincidence this GIF is against the Yanks –
The Yankees offense has been quite poor so far this year against RHP. I’m laying out the ranks a little differently for them to drive home the point –
Average – 27th
OBP – 17th
Slugging – 29th
OPS – 23rd
ISO – 22nd
wOBA – 21st
wRC+ – 17th
This is not what anyone expected from the Bronx Bombers even in the relatively early going. It stands out as an elite pitch mix matchup for Anderson since the Yanks are in the bottom-five against his main three pitches. Another good look for Anderson is the splits, as he’s gotten cracked by lefties with a .476 wOBA. The Yankees are projected to roll out six righties and that’s where Anderson has excelled with a .269 wOBA, .171 average, and a 0.87 HR/9. Anderson’s raw stuff is good but his control is spotty at best. It’s over 10% and the Yanks do lead the league in walk rate to righties, over 12%. If Anderson can have his control and continue to generate a 50% ground ball rate, he can succeed against this lineup. If not, it could be a real short trip for him.
Honorable Mention – Civale, but I have real issues with the salary compared to the K rate. Also, I typically try to avoid starters their second straight time against the same offense. I would bet the field doesn’t go this high, but I also thought Corbin Burnes would be GPP-only last night and he was a building block in cash lineups.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
